Measures the change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level compared to the same month in the previous year. It is a primary indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity. High readings suggest a robust economy and increased consumer confidence, often leading to inflationary pressure.
Calculated by surveying a broad sample of retail firms of various sizes and types across the country. The data is then weighted to represent the entire retail sector and adjusted for seasonal variations to ensure accuracy.
| Date | Actual | Forecast | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 17, 2026 | 0.60 | 1.50 | -0.90 |
| Jul 15, 2026 | 1.00 | -0.10 | +1.10 |
| Jun 16, 2026 | -0.60 | -0.30 | -0.30 |
| May 18, 2026 | 0.20 | 2.00 | -1.80 |
| Apr 16, 2026 | 1.70 | 2.30 | -0.60 |
| Mar 16, 2026 | 2.80 | 2.60 | +0.20 |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 0.90 | 1.20 | -0.30 |
| Dec 15, 2025 | 1.30 | 2.90 | -1.60 |
| Nov 14, 2025 | 2.90 | 2.70 | +0.20 |
| Oct 20, 2025 | 3.00 | 2.90 | +0.10 |
| Sep 15, 2025 | 3.40 | 3.80 | -0.40 |
| Aug 15, 2025 | 3.70 | 4.60 | -0.90 |
| Jul 15, 2025 | 4.80 | 5.60 | -0.80 |
| Jun 16, 2025 | 6.40 | 5.00 | +1.40 |
| May 19, 2025 | 5.10 | 5.50 | -0.40 |
| Apr 16, 2025 | 5.90 | 4.20 | +1.70 |
| Mar 17, 2025 | 4.00 | 3.80 | +0.20 |
| Jan 17, 2025 | 3.70 | 3.50 | +0.20 |
| Dec 16, 2024 | 3.00 | 4.60 | -1.60 |
| Nov 15, 2024 | 4.80 | 3.80 | +1.00 |
| Oct 18, 2024 | 3.20 | 2.50 | +0.70 |
| Sep 14, 2024 | 2.10 | 2.50 | -0.40 |
| Aug 15, 2024 | 2.70 | 2.60 | +0.10 |
| Jul 15, 2024 | 2.00 | 3.30 | -1.30 |
| Jun 17, 2024 | 3.70 | 3.00 | +0.70 |
| May 17, 2024 | 2.30 | 3.80 | -1.50 |
| Apr 16, 2024 | 3.10 | 4.50 | -1.40 |
| Mar 18, 2024 | 5.50 | 5.20 | +0.30 |
| Jan 17, 2024 | 7.40 | 8.00 | -0.60 |
| Dec 15, 2023 | 10.10 | 12.50 | -2.40 |
| Nov 15, 2023 | 7.60 | 7.00 | +0.60 |
| Oct 18, 2023 | 5.50 | 4.90 | +0.60 |
| Sep 15, 2023 | 4.60 | 3.00 | +1.60 |
| Aug 15, 2023 | 2.50 | 4.50 | -2.00 |
| Jul 17, 2023 | 3.10 | 3.20 | -0.10 |
| Jun 15, 2023 | 12.70 | 13.60 | -0.90 |
| May 16, 2023 | 18.40 | 21.00 | -2.60 |
| Apr 18, 2023 | 10.60 | 7.40 | +3.20 |
| Mar 15, 2023 | 3.50 | 3.50 | 0.00 |
| Jan 17, 2023 | -1.80 | -8.60 | +6.80 |
| Dec 15, 2022 | -5.90 | -3.70 | -2.20 |
| Nov 15, 2022 | -0.50 | 1.00 | -1.50 |
| Oct 24, 2022 | 2.50 | 3.30 | -0.80 |
| Sep 16, 2022 | 5.40 | 3.50 | +1.90 |
| Aug 15, 2022 | 2.70 | 5.00 | -2.30 |
| Jul 15, 2022 | 3.10 | 5.50 | -2.40 |
| Jun 15, 2022 | -6.70 | -7.10 | +0.40 |
| May 16, 2022 | -11.10 | -6.10 | -5.00 |
| Apr 18, 2022 | -3.50 | -1.60 | -1.90 |
| Mar 15, 2022 | 6.70 | 3.00 | +3.70 |
