Track the evolution of major financial and economic events
On May 29, the Indian central bank intervened in the foreign exchange market to support the rupee. The rupee is under downward pressure due to the maturities of Non-Deliverable Forward (NDF) contracts.
On April 30, a Nikkei report indicated that the Japanese Ministry of Finance intervened in the FX market to buy the yen after it breached 160 per dollar. Finance Minister Katayama issued a warning following this drop, signaling decisive steps to support the currency. The Bank of Japan also held rates at 0.75% with a split vote and hawkish signals in the quarterly outlook report.
The Indian rupee recorded its sharpest weekly drop in over three years, depreciating by 1.42% for the week ending April 27. The USD/INR currency pair is expected to open between 94.26 and 94.30 on Monday.
GBP/JPY reached levels not seen since July 2008, trading around the mid-215.00s. Geopolitical risks surrounding the Strait of Hormuz are heavily impacting the Japanese Yen. Japan is moving closer to actual intervention to support the yen, with Finance Minister Katayama expressing a high sense of urgency in monitoring the FX market. Additionally, Japan may release another 20 days' worth of oil reserves to alleviate pressure on the currency.
Mixed outlook for the EUR/USD pair as safe-haven demand clashes with geopolitical hopes. Societe Generale sees EUR/USD as a buy in the coming months as risk appetite improves. Meanwhile, Bank of America targets 1.20 for the pair by the end of 2026, driven by hopes for a resolution to the US-Iran conflict. However, Rabobank forecasts a drop to 1.14 within one month due to renewed safe-haven demand for the USD.
Global markets surged to record highs on April 15, 2026, as traders anticipated positive outcomes from the US-Iran negotiations. The US-Iran ceasefire boosted investor risk appetite, enhancing market confidence. With lower oil prices and Bitcoin rising, major stock indexes reached all-time highs. However, concerns about escalating tensions in the following days affected investor sentiment.
A ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran triggered a significant rally in the markets, while the U.S. dollar slumped by 1%. However, investors and consumers remain cautious due to inflation fears and geopolitical risks. The consumer sentiment index fell to a record low due to the Iran war, with rising inflation expectations. Meanwhile, Iran is considering abandoning uranium enrichment as a U.S. condition for ending the war.
The USD/CHF pair fell below the 0.7900 level following President Trump's ceasefire announcement, leading to shifts in market risk appetite. However, peace talks between the US and Iran collapsed, raising geopolitical concerns and pushing crude oil prices up by over 8%. Meanwhile, US consumer sentiment dropped, causing inflation expectations to rise to 4.8%.
The NZD/USD pair is trading neutrally as investors await the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) interest rate decision. Global geopolitical risks and future monetary policy outlooks are impacting investor sentiment regarding the Kiwi.
Nomura predicts that Japanese authorities are likely to intervene in the currency market to support the Yen if USD/JPY reaches the 161 to 163 range. Japanese authorities have stepped up verbal intervention after USD/JPY briefly rose above 160. Middle East tensions and high crude oil prices are contributing to persistent upward pressure on USD/JPY. The Yen may find near-term support if the BOJ branch managers’ meeting increases the likelihood of an April rate hike.
Japanese Finance Minister Seiko Katayama warned about the impact of high oil prices on financial markets and household costs. The Japanese government signaled readiness to intervene in FX markets as USD/JPY approached the 160 level. Subsequently, Japan issued a 'Final Warning' as USD/JPY breached 160, causing the exchange rate to fall below this level.
The GBP/CAD pair is testing a major technical support level at 1.80, with UK January GDP and Canada's February employment data set for release. On March 18, the Bank of Canada held its interest rate at 2.25%, citing downside growth risks. Markets reacted negatively due to the ongoing war in Iran, impacting UK gas prices. On March 19, the Bank of England surprised markets by keeping the rate unchanged at 3.75%, pushing rate cut expectations further into 2026.
AUD/USD faced heavy selling pressure on March 13 as expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts faded. The pair failed to break above the 0.7160 level after three attempts, leading to a bearish engulfing candle on the daily chart. On April 7, the deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz became a key risk event for AUD/USD, with Trump warning of strikes on Iranian facilities if deadlines were not met. Following Trump's two-week suspension of strikes, AUD/USD surged past 0.7050.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) is wavering following a surprise in the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data. Traders are reassessing Federal Reserve rate expectations based on the new data. There is anticipation of potential rallies in GBP/USD and EUR/USD amid shifting sentiment towards the dollar. The DXY is facing pressure near the 97.65 level due to new 15% tariff threats.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is under increasing pressure to change its patient stance on interest rates. Forecasts for NZD/USD and NZD/JPY are being influenced by the potential for a monetary policy shift. The market is awaiting upcoming central bank decisions.
The US Dollar has shown stability as market focus shifts to economic indicators. The USD/JPY surged due to fading expectations of a Bank of Japan rate hike, while stronger US economic data bolstered the dollar's strength. Additionally, the Australian Dollar rose following robust inflation data from Australia, increasing bets on the Reserve Bank of Australia's tightening monetary policy.
