Track the evolution of major financial and economic events
Gold and silver prices are forecasted to reach record highs of $4,500 and $72 respectively, driven by a weakening U.S. dollar. A potential U.S.-Iran peace deal is easing inflation fears and contributing to the dollar's decline. Emerging details of the draft agreement include provisions on sanctions relief, oil sales, uranium, and regional security.
U.S. President Donald Trump announced a landmark peace deal with Iran, leading to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the end of the U.S. naval blockade. Following the announcement, crude oil prices plunged between 4% and 5%, while risk assets rallied as the U.S. dollar declined. Markets are now anticipating the formal signing of the deal this Friday, amid a week of key central bank meetings that are expected to further influence currency volatility.
Gold prices have declined by nearly 3.00% over five trading sessions, marking their third consecutive week of losses. The precious metal is currently recording its fourth monthly decline in a row amid persistent selling pressure and bearish momentum. Gold is now attempting to stabilize above a critical support zone near its yearly lows following a sharp multi-week selloff.
Gold prices are on track for a 3% weekly decline, hitting a six-month low near $4,191 per ounce as rising oil prices fuel inflation risks and intensify bets on Federal Reserve rate hikes. Traders are currently weighing these inflationary pressures against hopes for a Middle East peace deal that could ease the energy shock. Analysts at OCBC suggest that a recovery in gold requires softer oil prices and a peak in rate repricing, while investors remain hesitant due to ongoing geopolitical risks involving Iran.
Gold prices dipped as the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 1.1% in May, exceeding economist expectations of a 0.7% increase. U.S. wholesale prices posted their largest back-to-back increases since 2022, pushing the annual PPI to 6.5%. This annual figure surpassed the 6.4% growth forecasted by experts, highlighting stronger-than-anticipated inflationary trends in the production sector.
Gold prices faced ongoing declines driven by rising bond yields and a stronger US dollar as traders revived bets on Federal Reserve interest rate hikes. OCBC noted that the gold uptrend is delayed as markets reprice expectations toward a more hawkish monetary policy. Expectations for a Fed rate hike have climbed above 70%, maintaining significant downward pressure on gold prices.
Silver prices (XAG/USD) declined toward $68.00 on June 11 as market expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate hikes intensified. Trading remained cautious around this level while investors awaited US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. By June 12, prices slipped further toward $67.00 amid escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
Gold prices faced intense selling pressure following US strikes against Iranian targets, which were launched in response to the downing of an American helicopter. Although prices showed signs of stabilization by June 12, gold ultimately dropped by 2% on June 13 as it lost its safe-haven appeal despite the geopolitical unrest. Meanwhile, oil prices surged above $93 per barrel driven by the military escalation in the Middle East.
Gold prices faced significant downward pressure, testing the $4,300 support level near late March lows. The decline was driven by a strengthening US Dollar and robust labor data, fueling expectations of further Federal Reserve interest rate hikes. This global trend resulted in price drops across markets in Pakistan, India, and Malaysia, with spot gold falling 0.4% to $4,313.11 per ounce.
Silver prices plunged 8% on June 6 following strong U.S. jobs data, triggering margin call selling and testing key support levels. Prices consolidated near the 200-day Moving Average by June 12 before rebounding 4% to approximately $70.80 on June 15. This recovery occurred as Washington and Tehran signaled support for a tentative agreement to end hostilities and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
Gold prices rebounded from a one-week low as a weakening US Dollar, pressured by the Israel-Lebanon truce, reduced safe-haven demand. Prices later held steady near $4,330 per ounce as markets balanced geopolitical optimism against a firmer dollar. Investors are now focused on the upcoming US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for May to gauge future market risks.
Wood Mackenzie warned that the conflict with Iran has removed over 80 million tonnes per annum of LNG, equivalent to 20% of global supply. This supply shortfall poses a significant threat to global energy markets.
On May 30, ExxonMobil Senior VP Neil Chapman warned that global crude oil prices could soar to $160 per barrel. This warning is driven by dwindling global commercial inventories reaching critically low levels.
U.S. gas prices have surged to four-year highs amid rising tensions with Iran. Analysts warn that prices could reach $5 per gallon if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. Following some progress in negotiations, oil prices fell, but U.S. military strikes on Iranian sites reignited fears about regional stability and oil prices. Meanwhile, reports indicate that U.S. commercial inventories have dropped to their lowest levels since 2004, raising concerns about potential price hikes in the future.
On May 13, the Dallas Fed models indicated that a potential war with Iran could drive oil prices up to $167 per barrel. The analysis suggests that a three-quarter oil shock could elevate core inflation and reshape sector outlooks.
On May 5, the 400,000 barrels-per-day Kirishi refinery owned by Surgutneftegas was hit by drone attacks, causing fires. NASA satellite imagery detected heating anomalies indicating fires at the refinery and nearby areas. On May 22, Ukraine targeted the Yaroslavl oil refinery and President Zelensky announced the use of long-range drones against Russian oil refining assets. On May 24, Russia launched a massive attack on Kiev using hypersonic ballistic missiles, resulting in at least one death and 20 injuries.
Global rice supply is expected to decline this year as Asian farmers reduce planting acreage due to fertilizer shortages and soaring fuel costs. Additionally, the Iran war and the emerging El Nino are set to further squeeze the output of the world's most consumed staple.
On April 21, Rosneft's Tuapse refinery was hit by a second drone strike within a week, causing major fires. The previous attack on April 16 resulted in a 10,000 square meter oil spill in the Black Sea. The Ukrainian military claimed responsibility for the attack on the refinery and oil depots in Crimea.
Aluminium prices are targeting $4,000 per ton due to supply constraints. Indian stocks Vedanta and Hindalco have been upgraded following the surge in metal prices. Aluminium prices have reached a four-year high amid market discussions.
ASP Isotopes' Virginia Gas Project emerges as a strategic alternative to the Qatar helium crisis as Qatar's Ras Laffan complex and the Strait of Hormuz face disruptions threatening one-third of global helium supply. The Virginia Gas Project in South Africa features helium concentrations of up to 12%, significantly higher than Qatari or U.S. levels. Phase 1 production is scheduled to begin in late 2026 with a capacity of 58 MCF per day.
On April 16, Iran halted oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, effectively breaching the terms of a fragile ceasefire agreement. President Trump expressed optimism regarding a potential peace deal with Iran despite ongoing ceasefire strains. As a result of these tensions, oil prices rebounded due to renewed supply concerns.
Oil prices fell by 16% on April 16 following reports of a US-Iran ceasefire. Despite the fragile ceasefire, the Strait of Hormuz remains closed as kinetic action continues in the Gulf.
Fears of stagflation in the US have risen as the March Consumer Price Index (CPI) hit 3.3%, the highest reading since May 2024. Q4 GDP growth was reported at 0.5%, indicating an economic slowdown. Inflation remains above target alongside weak growth, reinforcing the stagflation narrative. On April 20, the US Navy seized an Iranian vessel, reigniting inflation fears. Gold prices slid to $4,780.
The global lithium-ion battery market saw a 20% increase, surpassing $150 billion in 2025. Solid-state batteries are emerging as a new frontrunner, offering higher energy density and faster charging, potentially challenging China's dominance in the global energy storage sector. In this context, the Amplify Lithium & Battery Technology ETF surged by 18.3%, demonstrating its ability to decouple from broader market stagnation.
