Track the evolution of major financial and economic events
Crude oil prices rose following U.S. attacks in the Middle East, causing Asia-Pacific government bonds to fall amid inflation concerns. On July 13, international prices surged nearly 10%, marking the largest single-day increase since 2020, following President Trump's announcement to reimpose a U.S. blockade. This policy shift caused market sentiment to pivot toward a long-term expectation that operations in the Strait of Hormuz will not return to normal.
On July 8, at least four oil and LNG tankers made U-turns from the Strait of Hormuz following Iranian attacks on three commercial ships. These attacks prompted operators to pause transit attempts. On July 9, Stolt-Nielsen reported mixed financial results for the second quarter of 2026, with the company's operations impacted by ongoing disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.
Oil and natural gas prices maintained key technical support levels throughout July, driven by resilient demand and elevated refinery activity. WTI and Brent crude consistently defended higher support levels, reaching $79.57 and $84.76 respectively by July 14. Meanwhile, natural gas sustained its upward channel structure despite price fluctuations, as U.S. crude inventories remained near minimum operating levels due to firm demand for refined products.
Gold prices initially declined due to uncertainty over Federal Reserve policy decisions before stabilizing as investors awaited meeting minutes. While geopolitical risks in Iran supported gold's safe-haven appeal, prices later leveled off following a rally driven by inflation data. However, Fed official Christopher Waller expressed reservations regarding the anticipated pace of future interest rate cuts.
The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) saw a consistent decline in crude oil stocks throughout July, starting with a 6.2 million barrel drop to 319.5 million barrels, the lowest level since April 1983. This downward trend continued in the following weeks with additional decreases of 3 million and 5.1 million barrels. By July 20, total stocks reached 311.4 million barrels, marking a significant reduction in the nation's strategic reserves.
Silver prices (XAGUSD) experienced fluctuations in July driven by shifting interest rate expectations. On July 6, the outlook improved as a weak jobs report lowered the odds of a rate hike. However, by July 14, silver prices declined as surging oil prices increased the probability of further interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve.
On July 6, OPEC+ agreed to further increase its oil output targets starting from August. On the same day, exports via the Strait of Hormuz began to recover, potentially contributing to global supplies. On July 7, the extension of production increases was confirmed as Gulf oil flows recovered and prices cooled.
Traders are watching the Federal Reserve minutes on July 5 to see if gold can break above its 52-week moving average. Gold prices experienced noisy trading on July 9 as market participants monitored interest rate markets and the US dollar. Technical analysis indicates a looming 'Death Cross' formation, signaling potential downside risks for gold.
Wood Mackenzie analysts predict the end of cheap U.S. natural gas by 2035, driven by AI data center demand and LNG export expansion. Despite this long-term outlook, futures prices declined in mid-July due to larger-than-expected inventory builds and cooler weather forecasts. Additionally, planned maintenance at the Freeport LNG facility is expected to reduce both demand and export volumes.
On July 3, energy market research organizations began recalibrating global oil supply forecasts for 2026 and 2027. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) sees much slower global supply growth due to Hormuz-related uncertainty. On July 7, U.S. tech futures and global AI stocks weakened following earnings results from Samsung Electronics. Global oil prices rose following reports of ship attacks near the Strait of Hormuz.
The Indian government plans to sell stakes in 8 state-owned companies, including major insurers and banks, to raise billions of dollars. This move aims to plug the fiscal gap caused by the oil shock following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The government also plans to sell up to a 5.04% stake in Cochin Shipyard through an Offer for Sale. Additionally, India has scrapped import duties on some parts used to make mobile phones and other electronic devices, which previously stood at 5% and 7.5%.
Spot gold prices surged above the $4,100 per ounce level on Thursday, July 2, following steady U.S. weekly jobless claims at 215,000, which came in below economists' forecasts. On July 9, spot gold prices continued to trade above $4,100 per ounce after the release of U.S. labor market data showing the same figure for jobless claims.
On July 2, at least five supertankers carrying 10 million barrels of Saudi oil loaded from Ras Tanura exited the Strait of Hormuz. On the same day, Saudi Aramco announced its switch to spot pricing to accelerate sales in Asian markets. By July 6, Aramco had lowered its main oil prices for Asian buyers to rare discount levels.
Silver prices surged above $60.00 on July 2 as the Federal Reserve adopted a softer tone. On July 9, silver prices (XAG/USD) rebounded to trade above the $58.00 level despite ongoing inflation fears. Gold (XAU/USD) also saw a recovery as the dollar eased, although it faced pressure from rising Treasury yields.
Oil is set for its largest quarterly price drop in 6 years, as workarounds for the Strait of Hormuz chokepoint and a drop in crude imports to China ease the historic supply crunch. U.S. oil companies are expected to report their strongest quarterly profits in years. President Trump has been pressing oil companies to lower gasoline prices ahead of the November midterm elections.
On June 25, Iraq urged OPEC to allow increased oil production after its exports were severely reduced due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz from the US-Iran war. On June 26, Iraq's Oil Ministry announced that OPEC had begun gradually restoring Iraq's pre-war production allocations. By June 29, revenue pressures from the economic crisis caused by the Iran war and new oil major investments were driving Iraq's aggressive push for a larger OPEC production quota.
Equinor and its partners have committed to investing over 4 billion Norwegian crowns (approximately $412 million) to expand the Troll field in the North Sea. The investment focuses on a new subsea development project designed to boost gas production by an additional 11 billion cubic meters. Approved in June, this initiative aims to enhance the field's output capacity through strategic subsea infrastructure.
Oil prices dropped by over 1% following reports of a surprise ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah. The decline began on June 19 as geopolitical risks eased, despite ongoing tensions on the ground. The potential agreement faced an early test on June 23 after Israeli fire killed two people in Lebanon.
Oil prices edged higher early Wednesday, recovering some losses from the previous session. Investors are currently assessing the potential end of the war in Iran and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. However, analyses indicate that global energy markets have undergone a fundamental shift that will not revert to previous norms even after an Iranian cease-fire deal.
Gold prices extended their recovery to trade above the $4,300 per ounce level on June 16. Prices held steady above this threshold the following day as investors awaited the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. Markets remain focused on upcoming U.S. monetary policy and further developments regarding a potential deal between the U.S. and Iran.
Precious metals rebounded as gold prices bounced off the $4,345 technical support level, while silver traded at $70.60. This recovery is driven by market stabilization following the US-Iran ceasefire and easing tensions between Iran and Israel. Investors are now focusing on technical recoveries while awaiting the FOMC decision to determine the future direction of precious metal prices.
Concerns over oil supply eased as revised estimates suggested a smaller impact from the Strait of Hormuz closure, with Kpler reporting strengthened flows via alternative logistics. Meanwhile, Bitcoin fell below $63,000 following Israeli strikes on Lebanon, which proceeded despite international criticism. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu subsequently called for developing a domestic weapons industry to reduce U.S. dependence, while warning that the conflict with Iran remains ongoing.
Iran and Israel have signed a 60-day ceasefire extension mediated by the US, leading to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz for oil flows. Amidst these developments, the IAEA reported on Iran's enriched uranium levels prior to June 2025 air strikes. Additionally, a separate ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah is set to begin this Friday.
U.S. oil prices hit three-month lows, trading below $80 a barrel for the first time since March, causing Exxon and Chevron stocks to fall following news of a U.S.-Iran deal. On June 22, crude oil prices dropped by more than 2% during the trading session. Market indices showed mixed results as the Nasdaq Composite fell over 300 points while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 0.28%.
