What changed: Ibovespa fell 15.7% to 172,940 points after Lula’s victory, triggering B3’s circuit breaker as losses exceeded 10%.
The Ibovespa index crashed over 15% as markets reacted to the reelection of President Lula da Silva and potential shifts in economic policy.
Read the full storyLula won the presidential runoff and secured a new term with 51.79% of valid votes, while the Liberal Party added 23 seats in the Chamber of Deputies as Congress tilted to the right. Investors are focused on the choice of finance minister, the 2027 budget and spending policy, with public debt exceeding 82% of GDP and Lula’s team targeting a primary surplus of around 1.3% by 2030. In the latest developments, the real fell 12% and the dollar jumped to 5.60 reais, while five-year sovereign credit default swaps rose to 151.67 basis points. B3 halted trading for 30 minutes after the Ibovespa fell 10%, while the Treasury canceled two bond auctions this week, retaining the October 27 LFT auction.
What changed: Ibovespa fell 15.7% to 172,940 points after Lula’s victory, triggering B3’s circuit breaker as losses exceeded 10%.
The Ibovespa index crashed over 15% as markets reacted to the reelection of President Lula da Silva and potential shifts in economic policy.
What changed: The real fell 12% after Lula’s victory, and five-year sovereign credit default swaps rose to 151.67 basis points.
The dollar jumped to 5.60 reais in early trading, while pressure spread to the debt market and the Treasury canceled two bond auctions during the week.
What changed: Lula won with 51.8%, while public debt exceeds 82% of GDP and his team targets a roughly 1.3% primary surplus by 2030.
The president secured 51.8% of the vote as investors face a packed week of results from 179 U.S. companies and a Federal Reserve meeting concluding on October 28.
What changed: PagSeguro shares fell 26.4% after Lula’s reelection, amid anticipation of a clear fiscal policy.
Lula won 51.79% of valid votes, while other Brazilian stocks fell before the market open as investors awaited a clear fiscal policy.
What changed: Petrobras shares fell about 22% and Brazilian banks between 23% and 29% before the open after Lula’s victory.
The decline spread to banks and a Brazil ETF as investors reversed bets on fiscal tightening and awaited the finance minister pick and the 2027 budget.
What changed: B3 halted trading for 30 minutes after Ibovespa fell 10%, and the Brazil ETF dropped 26% after Lula’s reelection.
The São Paulo exchange halted trading for 30 minutes after its index fell 10%, as markets await the finance minister appointment and signals on the next fiscal policy.
What changed: Bovespa futures fell nearly 15% after Lula’s victory, and the Treasury canceled its October 27 and 29 auctions while retaining the October 27 LFT auction.
Markets reversed pre-election gains, and the Treasury canceled this week’s bond auctions while keeping the Oct. 27 bill auction in place.
What changed: November real futures fell more than 10%, and some long-term Brazilian bonds dropped more than two cents after Lula’s reelection.
The selloff followed Lula’s re-election, as fiscal plans came under renewed scrutiny with public debt exceeding 82% of gross domestic product.
What changed: Brazilian bank shares fell between 23% and 29% before the open, and MercadoLibre dropped 10.9% after Lula’s reelection.
Petrobras fell about 22% before the open, while MercadoLibre dropped 10.9%, as investors awaited a fiscal plan and the company’s results on 6 November.
What changed: Lula won another term with 51.79% of valid votes, while Brazilian assets fell as markets repriced the election result.
Brazil’s president secured a second-round victory over Flávio Bolsonaro, while Brazilian assets fell in Asian trading as markets repriced the election result.
What changed: MercadoLibre shares fell 10.8% before the open amid Lula’s victory, with Brazil accounting for over half its revenue and financial income.
The move comes as Brazil accounts for more than half of the company’s revenue and financial income, with third-quarter results tentatively scheduled for November 4.
What changed: Real futures fell 10% and a Tokyo-listed Brazilian fund lost 15%, while Vale shares dropped 3.6% before the open.
U.S.-listed Vale shares fell 3.6% in premarket trading to $11.95, as markets watch for fiscal policy signals and the company’s results this week.
What changed: Petrobras shares reached $20.49 after falling 21.7% before the open following Lula’s reelection to a fourth term.
The decline followed Lula’s victory in a fourth presidential term, with losses spreading to other Brazilian assets after stocks and the currency had posted gains before the runoff.
What changed: The Brazilian asset selloff following Lula’s victory extended to XP shares, which fell 45.3% to $16.63 before the open.
The decline came amid a selloff in Brazilian assets after Lula’s re-election, as investors reassessed fiscal-policy prospects and scaled back bets on a rightward political shift.
What changed: Santander shares fell 5.3% to €10.90 following Lula’s victory, while Brazil contributes about 15% of the bank’s profits, according to Citi.
The decline came in trading on October 26 as investors weighed Brazil’s fiscal outlook and the possibility of interest rates staying high, while the country accounts for about 15% of the bank’s profits.
What changed: Lula won 51.79% of valid votes, while the Liberal Party added 23 seats in the Chamber of Deputies.
The Brazilian real's decline exceeded the 10% drop previously seen in futures, as the president-elect faces legislative hurdles with a right-leaning Congress.
What changed: The Liberal Party and its allies could control more than 280 seats in the Chamber of Deputies and up to 50 Senate seats.
Re-elected President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva faces a centrist-right majority, while the new Senate will shape judicial appointments and the reform agenda.
What changed: A Datafolha poll before the runoff showed a statistical tie, with Flavio Bolsonaro at 47% and Lula at 46%.
A two-percentage-point margin of error makes Bolsonaro’s numerical lead a statistical tie, as about 159 million Brazilian voters head to the polls on Sunday.
What changed: Goldman Sachs recorded its busiest Brazil week amid foreign inflows and Bolsonaro’s polling lead, with daily trading reaching $20 billion after the first round.
Goldman Sachs reported its busiest trading week ever in Brazil as daily volumes hit a record $20 billion following first-round election results.
What changed: Ideia Big Data estimated an 85% probability of Flavio Bolsonaro winning the runoff, while Ibovespa first surpassed 200,000 points after the first round.
Consultancy Ideia Big Data projects an 85% victory probability for Flavio Bolsonaro in the October 25 runoff as incumbent Lula da Silva faces a narrowing path to reelection.
What changed: US-listed MercadoLibre shares rose after the first-round results of Brazil’s elections.
U.S.-listed shares of the e-commerce giant climbed as investors reacted to preliminary general election outcomes in Brazil, a core market for the company's operations.
What changed: Nu Holdings shares jumped 13% after Flavio Bolsonaro’s stronger-than-expected first-round performance, amid hopes for tighter fiscal policies.
US-listed Brazilian equities rallied as Senator Flávio Bolsonaro's stronger-than-expected performance fueled investor optimism for fiscal discipline and pro-market policies.
What changed: US-listed Brazilian ETFs rose in early trading, driven by Bolsonaro’s first-round lead.
U.S.-listed Brazilian ETFs surged in early trading on October 5, 2026, as investors reacted to first-round election results showing a lead for Bolsonaro.
What changed: The runoff was set for October 25, and markets rose after the first round as investors favored Bolsonaro on expectations of rapid spending cuts.
The runoff for the Brazilian presidential election has been scheduled for October 25, 2026, following a surprise lead by candidate Flávio Bolsonaro.
What changed: Nu Holdings shares rose after Bolsonaro-backed candidates performed better than expected in the first round.
Brazilian ADRs climbed as election results showed a stronger-than-anticipated performance by conservative candidates, signaling a potentially market-friendly political shift.
What changed: Petrobras and Vale shares rose after election results showed Bolsonaro ahead of Lula before the runoff.
Shares of Petrobras and Vale surged as election results showed Bolsonaro performing better than expected against Lula, tightening the race ahead of the runoff.
What changed: Brazilian stocks rose after Flavio Bolsonaro outperformed Lula in the first round of the election.
Right-wing senator Flávio Bolsonaro secured a surprise lead over President Lula da Silva in the first round, sparking market optimism over potential policy shifts.
What changed: Brazilian stocks traded in the United States rose following the first-round election results.
Brazilian ADRs in U.S. markets climbed as investors reacted to the first-round election results, signaling positive sentiment for the major emerging market.
What changed: Flavio Bolsonaro led the first round with 47% against Lula’s 45.2%, sending the race to a runoff.
Senator Flávio Bolsonaro led the first round of Brazil's presidential election with 47% of the vote against 45.2% for incumbent President Lula da Silva.
What changed: One-week implied real volatility exceeded 31%, and open interest in EWZ options reached 9 million contracts before the first round.
Implied volatility for the Brazilian real hit its highest since 2022, while EWZ options open interest reached a record 9 million contracts ahead of the first-round vote.