Datafolha poll gives Bolsonaro 47% and Lula 46% ahead of runoff
Key Facts
A Datafolha poll published by Reuters on October 22 showed Senator Flávio Bolsonaro narrowly ahead of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, with the former receiving 47% of voting intentions against 46% for the latter. But a one-percentage-point gap falls within the margin of error of two percentage points in either direction, putting the candidates effectively in a statistical tie ahead of the runoff. The poll was conducted between October 20 and 22, ahead of the vote scheduled for Sunday, October 25. The close result means the race enters its final hours without a statistically clear leader. The decisive round follows a final televised face-off between the candidates on Friday evening.
The Datafolha poll surveyed 2,154 people, and 5% of respondents said they would cast a blank ballot, while 2% were undecided. These two groups remain part of the poll’s picture alongside the candidates’ reported shares, in a race separated by a narrow margin. Reuters reported the poll’s findings as saying Bolsonaro “will receive 47% of the votes compared with 46% for the president.” The margin of error constrains how that numerical lead can be interpreted, at two percentage points up or down. The published result alone therefore does not determine which candidate is actually ahead on the eve of the vote.
The runoff follows Bolsonaro’s lead over Lula by more than 2.2 million votes in the first round, when neither candidate won an absolute majority. Bolsonaro received 47% of the vote then, compared with 45% for Lula, a result that did not prevent the contest from moving to a runoff. Comparing the two rounds shows that Bolsonaro’s first-round margin narrowed to one percentage point in the latest Datafolha poll. However, the two percentages cannot be directly compared as election results, since the latter is a pre-vote poll estimate. About 159 million Brazilians are eligible to vote in Sunday’s runoff.
The poll came ahead of the second and final debate between Lula and Bolsonaro, broadcast by TV Globo on Friday, October 23. The face-off lasted two hours, according to the Associated Press, and covered the candidates’ plans, with the cost of living among the topics. The agency describes TV Globo as Brazil’s most popular broadcaster. The debate was the candidates’ final televised face-off before the runoff. The available information does not substantiate what the previous draft said about discussions of government spending and tax reform or Bolsonaro’s defense of central bank independence, so those positions are not attributed to them here.
Ahead of the vote, Lula’s government announced a 15% increase in Bolsa Família payments in September and said the cost for the remainder of the year would be 5.8 billion Brazilian reais. The increase was approved before the election, according to the Associated Press. Congress also approved legislation, 10 days before the runoff, to reduce the workweek from 44 hours to 40 hours without cutting wages. These measures put social assistance and working hours among the policies adopted before the vote. The available facts do not include a measure of their impact on voting intentions or markets.
The election result also matters for political institutions, as Bolsonaro’s allies in the Senate need 54 votes to impeach Justice Alexandre de Moraes. The next president can also appoint at least three new justices to the Supreme Court during their term. The runoff is scheduled for Sunday, October 25, following a poll that showed the candidates close, with the gap within the margin of error. The Brazilian central bank’s Focus report is a weekly bulletin issued every Monday that presents the median market forecasts for inflation, GDP growth, the exchange rate and the Selic rate. The report is due the Monday after the vote as a regular release of market forecasts, not an analysis specific to the election result.