Macro EconomyMedium•2 October 2026•
1 min read
Brazil Market Volatility Surges as Bolsonaro and Lula Tie in Polls
Key Facts
1Polling data shows a statistical tie between Senator Flávio Bolsonaro and President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva ahead of the first round of voting.
2One-week implied volatility for the Brazilian real jumped above 31%, its highest level since late 2022.
3Open interest in iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (EWZ) options hit a record 9 million contracts, primarily driven by call options.
One-week implied volatility for the Brazilian real jumped above 31%, marking its highest level since late 2022 as the country prepares for Sunday's first round of presidential elections. Bloomberg reported that polling data shows a statistical tie between Senator Flávio Bolsonaro and President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, heightening market anticipation.
Open interest in iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (EWZ) options hit a record 9 million contracts, primarily driven by call options, according to ZeroHedge. In equity markets, EWZ closed at $37.51 on October 2, 2026, while JPM closed at $331.23 on the same day; C closed at $127 on October 1, 2026.