Flavio Bolsonaro Given 85% Odds to Win Brazil Presidential Runoff

Key Facts

1Brazilian consultancy Ideia Big Data assigns Flavio Bolsonaro an 85% probability of victory in the October 25 presidential runoff.

2Brazil's Ibovespa index surged above 200,000 for the first time following first-round results showing Bolsonaro leading President Lula da Silva.

Brazilian consultancy Ideia Big Data assigns Flavio Bolsonaro an 85% probability of victory in the presidential runoff scheduled for October 25. Reuters reported that market participants are favoring the right-wing candidate's potential for economic reform and deficit reduction after he secured 47% of first-round votes against 45.2% for President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.

Brazil's Ibovespa index surged above the 200,000 level for the first time following the first-round results, according to ZeroHedge. During a discussion hosted by UBS, Ideia Big Data noted a lack of clear catalysts for the PT party to reverse its erosion of support, highlighting that Lula da Silva would likely need at least 60% of third-way votes to overcome the current gap.