Lula Wins Fourth Term After Leading Brazil Runoff by 4.4 Million Votes
Key Facts
Brazil’s electoral court declared Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva the winner of a fourth nonconsecutive presidential term after 100% of runoff votes were counted on October 25. Lula led his rival Flávio Bolsonaro by about 4.4 million votes, taking 51.8% of the total, according to the Associated Press. The result reversed the course of a race in which Lula entered the runoff trailing his rival in the first round. The agency described the victory as unprecedented since the end of military rule in 1985, as no candidate who finished second in the first round had gone on to win the presidency. Lula begins his new term on January 5, 2027, facing legislative challenges and economic and trade issues that extend beyond the election result.
Bolsonaro had led Lula by more than 2.2 million votes in the first round, but neither candidate won an absolute majority, leading to a runoff, according to the Associated Press. On runoff day, Supreme Court Justice Cristiano Zanin extended voting by two hours after requests from both candidates. The decision came three minutes before polling stations were scheduled to close. The agency linked the extension to problems transporting voters in São Paulo and Salvador, as well as rain in the south of the country. Voting ended before the court declared Lula the winner after the count was complete.
The presidential result contrasts with the balance of power in Congress, where Lula faces strong right-wing and centrist blocs. If right-wing and centrist lawmakers unite, they could command a simple majority in the 513-seat Chamber of Deputies, and their alliance could expand to a qualified majority to amend the constitution, according to the Associated Press. The new legislators take office in February 2027, with some seeking to reshape policies on the Supreme Court, the economy, human rights and the environment. Bolsonaro’s allies need 54 votes in the Senate to impeach Justice Alexandre de Moraes, according to the agency. By contrast, the incoming president can appoint at least three new justices to the Supreme Court, making the relationship between the presidency and Congress influential in the course of those issues.
Lula’s victory also has implications for Brazil’s place in foreign relations. The Associated Press said the result keeps Latin America’s largest economy independent of the United States despite pressure from U.S. tariffs. The agency estimated Brazil’s gross domestic product at about $2.6 trillion annually. The United States imposed additional tariffs of 25% on some Brazilian goods during the summer of 2026, according to Axios. The result also leaves Brazil and Mexico, the two most populous countries in Latin America, under center-left leadership, according to the Associated Press. These developments put trade and relations with Washington among the issues the new administration will face amid a changing regional political landscape.
The new term follows a package of economic and social measures Lula took ahead of the runoff. In September, he announced a 15% increase in Bolsa Família payments, which took effect during election week and covered about 50 million people, according to the Associated Press. His government also cut fuel taxes and forgave government debts owed by 3.6 million small businesses, the agency said. Before the runoff, Congress passed legislation reducing the workweek from six days to five and cutting weekly working hours from 44 to 40 without reducing wages. Business leaders warned that reducing hours without a corresponding increase in productivity would raise labor costs, hurt small businesses, and could fuel inflation and informal work, according to the Associated Press.
Managing public finances remains a major economic challenge for the next government. Roberto Secemski, Barclays’ chief Brazil economist, said in a Reuters report published by Investing.com that stabilizing debt by 2031 would require a fiscal effort of at least 2.5 percentage points of gross domestic product, or about 350 billion Brazilian reais. He added that a rigid budget and fragmented Congress make achieving this reduction extremely difficult, and said neither candidate might be able to carry out the full fiscal effort. He said the winning president’s first measures would be an important signal to investors, as they would need to convince them that further steps would follow. As the term begins on January 5, 2027, attention will turn to how the government balances its economic priorities with its ability to build support in Congress.