Currency
EPI = 100 − |inflation| − unemployment − deficit/GDP + GDP growth. Source: IMF WP/13/214 (Khramov & Lee, 2013).
Deficit/GDP sourced from SARB 2024
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.25 | 7 | 7.25 | In Line | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase |
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation Rate YoY | 4.4 | 4.3 | 4.5 | Miss | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | |
| Core Inflation Rate YoY | 4.1 | 4.2 | 4.2 | Miss | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | |
| 0 | 0.2 | 0.3 | Miss | Falling3rd Consecutive Decrease | ||
| 0 | 0.5 | 0.3 | Miss | Falling3rd Consecutive Decrease | ||
| CPI | 3 | 3.4 | — | Falling3rd Consecutive Decrease |
| CPI YoY | 3 | 3.4 | — | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | ||
| CPI MoM | 0.2 | 0.7 | — | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | ||
| 5 | 5.7 |
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unemployment Rate | 33.6 | 32.7 | 33.1 | Beat | Rising3rd Consecutive Increase | |
| Unemployed Persons | 8.481 | 8.137 | 8.3 | Beat | Rising3rd Consecutive Increase |
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP Growth Rate YoY | 0.9 | 1.9 | 1.2 | Miss | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | |
| GDP Growth Rate QoQ | -0.2 | 0.4 | -0.1 | Miss | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | |
| 1.9 | 0.8 | 1.8 | Beat | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | ||
| 0.4 | 0.5 | — | Falling3rd Consecutive Decrease |
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Building Permits | -14.3 | — | -8 | Miss | Rising3rd Consecutive Increase | |
| Building Permits YoY | 4.1 | 34.3 | -8 | Beat | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease |
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Sales MoM | 2.5 | -0.8 | 0.7 | Beat | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | |
| Retail Sales YoY | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.9 | Beat | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | |
| -13 | -19 | -20 | Beat | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | ||
| 38 | 39 | 34 | Beat | Falling3rd Consecutive Decrease | ||
| SACCI Business Confidence (Jul) | 125.4 | 123.5 | 123.8 | Beat |
| 123.5 | 124.1 | 125 | Miss | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase |
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balance of Trade | 20.47 | 18.04 | 3.5 | Beat | Rising4th Consecutive Increase | |
| Trade Balance | 3.97 | 19.56 | — | Falling3rd Consecutive Decrease | ||
| -205.5 | 181.6 | -85 | Miss | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease |
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manufacturing PMI | 49 | 50.5 | — | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | ||
| Composite PMI | 49 | 50.5 | 50.7 | Miss | ||
| 7 | -2.2 | 3.5 | Beat | Rising3rd Consecutive Increase | ||
| -4.3 | 1.1 | 0.9 | Miss | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | ||
| -3.1 | 2.2 | 1.7 | Miss | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease |
| 50.7 | 45.8 | 48.8 | Beat | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | ||
| PMI | 50.5 | 50.3 | 50.5 | In Line | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | |
| 50.9 | 50.9 |
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Budget Balance | -29.14 | -161.58 | -50 | Beat | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase |
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI | 45.85 | 50.34 | — | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | ||
| Gold Production YoY | -5.7 | -7.3 | -4.1 | Miss | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | |
| -12.7 | -7 | -3 | Miss | Falling3rd Consecutive Decrease | ||
| Bond Auction | 9.074 | 9.191 | — | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | ||
| -5.4 | -1.9 | 2 | Miss | Falling3rd Consecutive Decrease |
| 75.43 | 75.95 | 77 | Miss | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | ||
| 61.65 | 57.76 | 55 | Beat | Rising5th Consecutive Increase | ||
| 12.7 | 11.4 |
| Miss |
| Falling4th Consecutive Decrease |
| Producer Price Index MoM | -0.4 | -1 | 0.8 | Miss | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase |
| Inflation Expectations | 4 | 4.2 | 4.4 | Miss | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease |
| Producer Price Index | 103.29 | 102.7 | — |
| Miss |
| Standard Bank PMI | 50.3 | 51 | — | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease |
| Barclays Manufacturing PMI | 50.9 | 46.7 | — | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase |
| KAGISO Manufacturing PMI | 51.4 | 51.4 | — |
| Rising2nd Consecutive Increase |
| M3 Money Supply YoY | 8.89 | 8.57 | — | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase |
| Private Sector Credit | 7.47 | 7.41 | — | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase |
| Private Sector Credit YoY | 7.47 | 7.41 | 7.1 | Beat | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase |
| Prime Rate | 10.75 | 10.5 | 10.75 | In Line | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase |
| Leading Business Cycle Indicator MoM | -0.9 | -1 | 0.7 | Miss | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase |
| Total New Vehicle Sales | 57.9 | 57.73 | 58 | Miss | Rising5th Consecutive Increase |
| Prime Overdraft Rate | 10.5 | 10.5 | 10.75 | Miss |
| Reuters Econometer | 256.3 | 256.3 | — |
| Car Registrations | 36.7 | 39.7 | — |
