This indicator measures the rate at which consumers and businesses expect prices to rise in the future. It is a key forward-looking metric that central banks use to gauge the risk of an inflation spiral. High expectations can lead to actual inflation as workers demand higher wages and firms raise prices in anticipation of higher costs.
Derived from surveys asking respondents about their price outlook over the next 1 to 5 years, often expressed as a percentage.
| Date | Actual | Forecast | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 16, 2026 | 4.00 | 4.40 | -0.40 |
| Jun 30, 2026 | 4.20 | 3.80 | +0.40 |
| Mar 16, 2026 | 3.60 | 4.00 | -0.40 |
| Dec 12, 2025 | 3.80 | 4.10 | -0.30 |
| Sep 15, 2025 | 4.20 | 4.20 | 0.00 |
| Jul 2, 2025 | 4.30 | 4.40 | -0.10 |
| Mar 17, 2025 | 4.30 | 4.50 | -0.20 |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 4.50 | 4.80 | -0.30 |
| Sep 12, 2024 | 4.80 | 4.80 | 0.00 |
| Jul 5, 2024 | 5.00 | 5.50 | -0.50 |
| Mar 19, 2024 | 5.30 | 5.80 | -0.50 |
The latest reading is within its usual range, less than one standard deviation from the mean.
