Measures the change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level compared to the same month in the previous year. It is a primary indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity. High readings suggest a robust economy and increased consumer confidence, often leading to inflationary pressure.
Calculated by surveying a broad sample of retail firms of various sizes and types across the country. The data is then weighted to represent the entire retail sector and adjusted for seasonal variations to ensure accuracy.
| Date | Actual | Forecast | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19, 2026 | 1.60 | 2.30 | -0.70 |
| Jul 22, 2026 | 2.30 | 2.50 | -0.20 |
| Jun 17, 2026 | 1.20 | 0.70 | +0.50 |
| May 20, 2026 | 2.50 | 2.50 | 0.00 |
| Apr 22, 2026 | 1.60 | 4.80 | -3.20 |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 4.20 | 2.50 | +1.70 |
| Feb 18, 2026 | 2.60 | 3.70 | -1.10 |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 3.50 | 2.50 | +1.00 |
| Dec 10, 2025 | 2.90 | 2.30 | +0.60 |
| Nov 19, 2025 | 3.10 | 3.00 | +0.10 |
| Oct 15, 2025 | 2.30 | 3.50 | -1.20 |
| Sep 17, 2025 | 5.60 | 2.00 | +3.60 |
| Aug 13, 2025 | 1.60 | 3.00 | -1.40 |
| Jul 16, 2025 | 4.20 | 4.40 | -0.20 |
| Jun 18, 2025 | 5.10 | 1.20 | +3.90 |
| May 21, 2025 | 1.50 | 2.00 | -0.50 |
| Apr 16, 2025 | 3.90 | 6.50 | -2.60 |
| Mar 19, 2025 | 7.00 | -1.80 | +8.80 |
| Feb 19, 2025 | 3.10 | 2.60 | +0.50 |
| Jan 22, 2025 | 7.70 | 5.50 | +2.20 |
| Dec 11, 2024 | 6.30 | 2.10 | +4.20 |
| Nov 20, 2024 | 0.90 | -0.70 | +1.60 |
| Oct 16, 2024 | 3.20 | 1.00 | +2.20 |
| Sep 18, 2024 | 2.00 | 3.50 | -1.50 |
| Aug 14, 2024 | 4.10 | 0.40 | +3.70 |
| Jul 17, 2024 | 0.80 | -1.20 | +2.00 |
| Jun 19, 2024 | 0.60 | -1.80 | +2.40 |
| May 15, 2024 | 2.30 | 2.50 | -0.20 |
| Apr 17, 2024 | -0.80 | -1.80 | +1.00 |
| Mar 20, 2024 | -2.10 | 1.50 | -3.60 |
| Feb 14, 2024 | 2.70 | -0.70 | +3.40 |
| Jan 17, 2024 | -0.90 | -0.90 | 0.00 |
| Dec 13, 2023 | -2.50 | 0.90 | -3.40 |
| Nov 15, 2023 | 0.90 | 0.10 | +0.80 |
| Oct 18, 2023 | -0.50 | -1.00 | +0.50 |
| Sep 20, 2023 | -1.80 | -1.20 | -0.60 |
| Aug 16, 2023 | -0.90 | -0.20 | -0.70 |
| Jul 19, 2023 | -1.40 | -1.10 | -0.30 |
| Jun 14, 2023 | -1.60 | -1.40 | -0.20 |
| May 17, 2023 | -1.60 | -0.70 | -0.90 |
| Apr 19, 2023 | -0.50 | -0.30 | -0.20 |
| Mar 15, 2023 | -0.80 | -2.00 | +1.20 |
| Feb 15, 2023 | -0.60 | -0.10 | -0.50 |
| Jan 18, 2023 | 0.40 | -0.20 | +0.60 |
| Dec 14, 2022 | -0.60 | -0.50 | -0.10 |
| Nov 16, 2022 | -0.60 | 1.00 | -1.60 |
| Oct 19, 2022 | 2.00 | 4.20 | -2.20 |
| Sep 14, 2022 | 8.60 | 8.40 | +0.20 |
| Aug 17, 2022 | -2.50 | 0.40 | -2.90 |
| Jul 13, 2022 | 0.10 | 1.50 | -1.40 |
| Date | First print | Current | Revision |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 22, 2026 | 2.30 | 2.30 | 0 ↓ |
| Jun 17, 2026 | 1.30 | 1.20 | -0.10 ↓ |
| May 20, 2026 | 2.60 | 2.50 | -0.10 ↓ |
