The Leading Business Cycle Indicator for South Africa is a composite index designed to predict the future direction of the nation's economy. It aggregates several forward-looking variables, such as job advertisements, building plans approved, and manufacturing orders, to identify turning points in economic activity. By tracking these components, the index provides an early signal of whether the economy is likely to expand or contract in the coming six to twelve months. It is a vital tool for policymakers and investors to anticipate shifts in the South African business cycle.
The index is calculated by the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) as a weighted average of 10 components that historically lead the overall business cycle. These include commodity prices, share prices, and manufacturing sector surveys, adjusted for seasonal variations.
| Date | Actual | Forecast | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | — | 1.40 | — |
| Aug 25, 2026 | -1.40 | -0.50 | -0.90 |
| Jul 28, 2026 | -0.30 | 0.50 | -0.80 |
| Jun 23, 2026 | -2.00 | 1.70 | -3.70 |
| May 26, 2026 | 1.50 | -0.20 | +1.70 |
| Apr 28, 2026 | 0.60 | 1.00 | -0.40 |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 1.40 | -0.30 | +1.70 |
| Dec 17, 2025 | 0.40 | -0.60 | +1.00 |
| Nov 25, 2025 | -1.20 | 1.80 | -3.00 |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 1.60 | 0.70 | +0.90 |
| Sep 23, 2025 | 0.90 | -0.60 | +1.50 |
| Aug 26, 2025 | 0.40 | 0.20 | +0.20 |
| Jul 22, 2025 | -1.30 | 0.50 | -1.80 |
| Jun 24, 2025 | -0.30 | -0.60 | +0.30 |
| May 27, 2025 | 1.10 | 0.30 | +0.80 |
| Apr 22, 2025 | -0.20 | 0.70 | -0.90 |
| Mar 25, 2025 | 0.90 | 0.90 | 0.00 |
| Feb 25, 2025 | -1.80 | 0.30 | -2.10 |
| Jan 28, 2025 | 0.60 | -0.70 | +1.30 |
| Dec 17, 2024 | 1.10 | 0.30 | +0.80 |
| Nov 26, 2024 | 0.90 | 1.50 | -0.60 |
| Oct 22, 2024 | -0.70 | -0.30 | -0.40 |
| Sep 25, 2024 | 0.70 | -0.20 | +0.90 |
| Aug 20, 2024 | -0.40 | 0.60 | -1.00 |
| Jul 23, 2024 | -1.00 | 1.70 | -2.70 |
| Jun 25, 2024 | 2.40 | -0.80 | +3.20 |
| May 21, 2024 | -1.90 | 1.30 | -3.20 |
| Apr 23, 2024 | 1.70 | -0.30 | +2.00 |
| Mar 26, 2024 | -0.50 | -0.50 | 0.00 |
| Feb 20, 2024 | -0.80 | -0.20 | -0.60 |
| Jan 23, 2024 | -0.40 | -0.40 | 0.00 |
| Dec 19, 2023 | 0.20 | 0.30 | -0.10 |
| Nov 21, 2023 | 0.60 | -1.00 | +1.60 |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 0.40 | 0.20 | +0.20 |
| Sep 26, 2023 | 0.10 | 0.30 | -0.20 |
| Aug 22, 2023 | -0.10 | 0.40 | -0.50 |
| Jul 25, 2023 | -1.70 | -0.70 | -1.00 |
| Jun 20, 2023 | -1.00 | -1.70 | +0.70 |
| May 23, 2023 | -2.00 | -1.00 | -1.00 |
| Apr 25, 2023 | -0.70 | 0.20 | -0.90 |
| Mar 22, 2023 | -0.10 | -1.70 | +1.60 |
| Feb 21, 2023 | -2.10 | -0.40 | -1.70 |
| Jan 24, 2023 | 0.10 | 1.20 | -1.10 |
| Dec 20, 2022 | -0.90 | -0.80 | -0.10 |
| Nov 22, 2022 | 1.40 | 0.30 | +1.10 |
| Oct 25, 2022 | -2.30 | -0.70 | -1.60 |
| Sep 20, 2022 | -1.00 | -0.20 | -0.80 |
| Aug 23, 2022 | 0.40 | -1.00 | +1.40 |
| Jul 26, 2022 | -0.70 | 0.80 | -1.50 |
| Jun 21, 2022 | -0.30 | -1.40 | +1.10 |
| May 24, 2022 | 0.60 | -0.70 | +1.30 |
| Date | First print | Current | Revision |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 23, 2026 | -1.80 | -2 | -0.20 ↓ |
| May 26, 2026 | 2.40 | 1.50 | -0.90 ↓ |
| Apr 28, 2026 | 0.50 | 0.60 | +0.10 ↑ |
