U.S. planners weigh 3-day campaign against Iran after midterm elections
Key Facts
Some U.S. planners are considering a potential military campaign against Iran lasting 3 days as part of plans for renewed U.S. and Israeli strikes after the U.S. midterm elections, Investing reported, citing the New York Times in its October coverage. Potential targets include Iranian energy facilities, the Times of Israel reported, citing the New York Times. The list of sites under consideration also includes nuclear facilities and missile and drone arsenals, combining economic and military targets. Officials cited in the coverage believe inflicting severe economic damage on Iran could push Tehran to make concessions on the diplomatic front. They described the aim of this pressure as "forcing Tehran to make diplomatic concessions," directly linking the potential economic targets to the negotiating outcome they seek.
These military options come against a backdrop of Israeli air operations and a meeting between U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Israel. Axios, citing Israeli and U.S. officials, reported that dozens of Israeli air force fighter jets flew a sortie on Monday that reached the vicinity of Iran's border. In separate coverage, Axios said the Hegseth-Netanyahu meeting took place at Ovda air base in southern Israel. U.S. fighter jets and aerial refueling aircraft are stationed at the base, according to the outlet, while Hegseth confirmed he spoke to Netanyahu during a visit to U.S. troops in Israel. The secretary declined to disclose the substance of the meeting, saying, according to the Times of Israel, that "the nature of our conversation is not something I am going to discuss."
On the diplomatic front, Iranian officials insist on the lifting of the U.S. blockade and sanctions relief as conditions for an agreement, according to the Associated Press. The agency quoted their position as saying, "There will be no agreement until the United States lifts the blockade and provides sanctions relief." On Iran's military stance, Revolutionary Guards spokesman Hossein Mohebbi warned of expanding the geographical scope of the war if the United States escalates the conflict. Mohebbi said, according to the Associated Press, "We will definitely change the geography of the war," linking the warning to potential U.S. escalation. He added that the Revolutionary Guards had prepared for a long war, as some U.S. planners consider the option of a short, intensive campaign.
In the Gulf, the U.S. State Department announced that the departure order covers non-essential U.S. government employees and their family members in Saudi Arabia. The announcement came amid Houthi attacks on civilian targets in the kingdom, according to Reuters via MarketScreener. The department defined the scope of the measure as applying to "non-essential U.S. government employees and their family members in Saudi Arabia only." In maritime shipping, Reuters cited Kpler data recording at least 18 attacks on ships during the two weeks preceding its report published on October 21. The attacks on ships add a maritime dimension to the risks of regional escalation, alongside the attacks on Saudi civilian targets that accompanied the departure measure for U.S. employees.
In the oil market, Reuters reported via Investing that Brent futures settled at $108.82 a barrel in the session on Wednesday, October 21. The agency reported a gain of 3 cents, or 0.03%, at settlement. In separate coverage of the session on Tuesday, October 20, Investing said Brent ended trading at $109.11 a barrel, down 0.4%. Its losses during that session had exceeded 2%, amid hopes over mediation. The contract then pared its decline before the close, leaving Tuesday's session with a smaller loss than it had recorded during trading.
The plans under discussion place the timing of renewed strikes after the U.S. midterm elections, according to Investing, citing the New York Times. On military preparations, the coverage anticipates that the required U.S. assets will be fully in place in the region by early November. This expected date relates to the completion of the U.S. military deployment, while authorization to use force remains in Trump's hands. Trump may ultimately decide not to authorize any military action against Iran, the Times of Israel reported, citing the New York Times. Execution of the proposed campaign thus remains contingent on the U.S. decision, even as an electoral timetable is set for action and military assets are expected to be fully in place in the region.