A Week of Intense Strikes in Possible Operation Against Iran After November 3 Election
Key Facts
Washington and Tel Aviv are weighing a possible military operation against Iran after the U.S. midterm elections that could include a week of intense strikes on Iran’s leadership, energy targets, nuclear facilities and infrastructure, Axios reported, citing U.S. and Israeli officials. But that scenario does not mean a decision to proceed has been made: two diplomats told The Associated Press that President Donald Trump has not made up his mind about launching new strikes. They said Trump has repeatedly discussed considering military action after the November 3 election. Washington has told countries in the Middle East and regional allies to prepare for the possibility of military action, as well as a possible Iranian response. Those warnings place energy facilities and infrastructure in the region among the risks for which the capitals concerned are preparing.
Estimates of the duration of any confrontation vary. The operation described to Axios by U.S. and Israeli officials could involve a week of broad strikes, while Washington has told regional allies that a new round could last several days, according to the two diplomats who spoke to The Associated Press. Regional officials are preparing for the possibility that Iran and allied groups will retaliate, which could prolong the fighting. U.S. officials have urged allies to take precautions against Iranian strikes on energy facilities and other critical infrastructure. The warnings did not estimate the potential damage or its scope. The United Arab Emirates called on the parties to the conflict to "act wisely and pursue political solutions" to contain tensions and prevent a return to large-scale military operations.
Alongside the preparations, Qatar-led mediation is seeking an agreement to resume negotiations between the United States and Iran and prevent the war from restarting after the elections, according to three U.S., Israeli and regional sources cited by Axios. Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Turkey are supporting Qatar’s efforts. Qatari negotiator Ali Al-Thawadi visited Tehran earlier in the week to discuss a possible agreement with the Trump administration. One proposal would allow United Nations inspectors to visit nuclear sites that were bombed in exchange for the easing of some U.S. sanctions. The mediation is therefore focused on restoring inspections and linking them to a U.S. concession on sanctions, alongside a resumption of negotiations.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Tehran "is still giving diplomacy a chance to succeed" and is working with mediators to review ideas it put forward in a proposal the previous month as a basis for returning to a ceasefire, according to The Associated Press. Trump told Axios that negotiations with Iran were taking place through mediators, but he did not know whether they would succeed, adding: "We have to finish the job, either with an agreement or another way; and we will know whether the negotiations succeed." In this context, Saudi Arabia has asked Trump not to rush into war and to allow more time for negotiations, after Saudi officials told the White House that Iran was concerned about a U.S.-Israeli bombing operation after the elections. These positions put the diplomatic track to a test in the days before any U.S. decision on military action.
The inspection proposal is based on the September 2025 Cairo agreement between Iran and the International Atomic Energy Agency, which allowed United Nations inspectors to resume visits to Iranian nuclear sites, Axios reported. IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi told the Security Council on Tuesday that reviving the agreement could provide a framework for restoring inspections at Iranian nuclear facilities damaged by U.S. and Israeli strikes. This gives the proposal an existing basis for discussions on inspectors’ return, while details of sanctions relief and the resumption of negotiations remain under discussion among mediators. The diplomatic track comes as possible military plans include nuclear facilities among the targets identified by officials who spoke to Axios.
The next step in the mediation depends on the Iranian leadership’s response to the ideas on the table. A regional source told Axios that Iran would seek Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei’s approval in the next few days. Washington, according to the diplomats cited by The Associated Press, still has no final decision on new strikes, while countries in the region are preparing for the possibility of an operation and a response to it. These positions leave two paths open after the November 3 election: continuing negotiations based on proposals on inspections and sanctions, or the possibility of renewed military action and a subsequent Iranian response.