Report of Patriot Transfer from Texas Unconfirmed Amid Estimates That 65% of U.S. Missiles Were Used
Key Facts
The central claim in the draft that a Patriot system was being transferred from Texas to the Middle East could not be verified: the Jerusalem Post report was inaccessible, and no original, publicly available Wall Street Journal page or other high-level source confirming it was found. Details about moving the radar, control station, launchers and interceptors therefore cannot be treated as established fact. In the context of U.S. movements in the region, the Associated Press said on October 1 that the U.S. military was sending about 9,000 troops to the Middle East aboard a ship group. The report linked the deployment to President Donald Trump’s consideration of his options on Iran. But it did not establish that those troops or the naval group were connected to a Patriot transfer from Texas, or that Washington had decided to launch an attack.
The question of interceptor stockpiles takes on importance in light of estimates reported by the Associated Press in August about Patriot missile use during the war with Iran. The agency attributed to the Center for Strategic and International Studies an estimate that 65% of U.S. missiles had been used, equivalent to about 1,500 missiles out of an estimated stockpile of about 2,330. The agency also said U.S. officials and a NATO ally described U.S. and NATO Patriot stockpiles in Europe as low. These figures provide an estimate of stockpiles and usage as of the report, and do not in themselves establish the location or destination of any particular system. By contrast, a U.S. Defense Department spokesman said claims of ammunition shortages were "not true," and that forces had what they needed to carry out operations at the time and place chosen by the president.
The economic data in the draft concern manufacturing activity and do not explain military movements. The U.S. Census Bureau announced on October 27 that new orders for manufactured durable goods rose $6.3 billion, or 1.8%, in September to $345.4 billion. Orders excluding transportation rose 0.5%, while orders excluding defense increased 2.2%, the bureau said. In August, total orders stood at $338.6 billion after a decline of $0.1 billion, or were nearly unchanged, while orders excluding defense rose 0.1%. The differences among these indicators show that September’s growth covered both total orders and orders outside the defense sector, without the report linking the increase to any military equipment or a Patriot system transfer.
The transportation equipment sector led the monthly increase, with orders rising $5.2 billion, or 4.6%, to $119.8 billion, according to the Census Bureau. The bureau said the sector recorded an increase in two of the past three months. The rise in transportation equipment accounted for most of the $6.3 billion increase in total orders in September, while total orders grew 1.8%. These figures allow a comparison between growth in the sector that contributed most to the increase and the overall indicator, but the report does not specify in the cited passage which types of equipment drove the rise. The Census Bureau set November 3 as the date for releasing the full report on September orders, following the report issued on October 27.
On monetary policy, the Federal Open Market Committee meeting was scheduled for October 27 and 28, with a press conference on October 28 at 2:30 p.m., according to the Federal Reserve’s calendar. The calendar does not confirm an expectation that interest rates would be held at 4%, contrary to the draft. The committee’s decision on September 16 raised the federal funds target range by a quarter of a percentage point to 3.75%–4%, effective September 17. That places the scheduled meeting in the context of a target range established by the September decision, rather than at a single level of 4%.