Iran warns of wider escalation as Trump rules out strikes before November 3
Key Facts
Iranian officials warned of wider escalation in the Middle East if the United States launches fresh strikes on Iran, according to the Wall Street Journal, as Iran prepares for the possibility of renewed U.S. and Israeli attacks. The newspaper reported that the warnings were issued publicly and in private discussions between Iranian officials and regional officials about the response to any new U.S. attack. An Iranian official told Reuters that "Iran is preparing for renewed Israeli and U.S. attacks," amid reports of potential strike targets including military sites, energy facilities and the nuclear programme. Asharq News, citing the New York Times, reported that the list of potential targets includes Iran's energy infrastructure and nuclear facilities, along with missile and drone stockpiles. The same report, meanwhile, cited Iranian officials pledging to expand the list of potential retaliation targets to include digital facilities and undersea communications infrastructure. They said the targets "also include data centres and undersea internet cables."
The United States and Israel came close to carrying out strikes in early October, according to U.S. and Israeli defence officials cited by Asharq News in a report attributed to the New York Times. But Trump postponed the attack at the last minute, the officials said, after both sides had come close to launching it. On military resources, the Associated Press, citing U.S. officials, reported that Patriot air defence missiles had been moved from Europe towards the Middle East. The transfer raised concerns about gaps in European air defences against Russia, according to the agency. The war's impact on military resources thus extended to defences allocated to Europe, as interceptor missiles were moved towards the Middle East.
In the Strait of Hormuz, the Associated Press cited Tehran as saying that 7 oil tankers caught fire or were damaged during the night before the agency's report was published, after being hit by Iranian attacks or striking naval mines. Iran wants to expand its control over the strait, Reuters reported, in an issue that also encompasses the arrangements Tehran is seeking for ships to pass through. Tehran is seeking to collect fees from ships using the waterway, a demand Washington rejects and one of the sticking points in negotiations between the two sides, according to the agency. Against the backdrop of developments in shipping, Kpler data cited by Asharq News showed average oil flows from the Middle East exceeded 24 million barrels per day in the week ended October 18. The average includes oil flowing through the Strait of Hormuz and via alternative routes, according to the data. Those flows compare with a pre-war level of 23.3 million barrels per day. Combined volumes transported through the strait and alternative routes thus exceeded pre-war levels during the week measured.
On the diplomatic front, Pakistan is stepping up mediation efforts to resume negotiations between Washington and Tehran, according to Asharq News, as Iran maintains conditions that must be met before returning to talks. Pakistani army chief Asim Munir visited Iranian officials in Tehran as part of these efforts to revive talks between the two sides. Iran's Supreme National Security Council Secretary Mohsen Rezaei demanded that the United States take confidence-building steps and meet Tehran's conditions before negotiations resume, according to Asharq News. Rezaei said there would be "no negotiations with the United States" until those requirements were met. He also rejected transferring Iran's enriched uranium abroad, a demand U.S. officials had put forward in the negotiations, saying: "Not a single gram of enriched uranium will be transferred outside Iran." On the timing of any new military action, Reuters quoted Trump as saying the United States would not bomb Iran again before the midterm elections. The elections are scheduled for November 3, the date to which Trump tied his pledge that U.S. bombing would not resume before the vote.