EPI = 100 − |inflation| − unemployment − deficit/GDP + GDP growth. Source: IMF WP/13/214 (Khramov & Lee, 2013).
Deficit/GDP sourced from Min Fin RU 2024
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 14 | 14 | In Line | |||
| Central Bank Reserves $ | 723.5 | 733.2 |
| Falling5th Consecutive Decrease |
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation Rate YoY | 6.3 | 6.3 | 6.4 | Miss | ||
| Inflation Rate MoM | 0.3 | -0.1 | 0.4 | Miss | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | |
| CPI | 0.7 | 1.6 | 0.6 | Beat | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | |
| CPI YoY | 6 | 5.6 | 6.4 | Miss | ||
| CPI MoM | 1.6 | 0.3 | 2 | Miss | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase |
| 6.5 | 6.6 | 4.5 | Beat | Falling3rd Consecutive Decrease | ||
| 0.9 | -2.5 | -0.9 | Beat | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase |
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unemployment Rate | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.2 | In Line | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | |
| Real Wage Growth YoY | 3.3 | 3.4 | 2.4 | Beat | Falling5th Consecutive Decrease |
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP Growth Rate YoY | 1.3 | -0.2 | 1.3 | In Line | ||
| Full Year GDP Growth | 1 | 4.9 | 0.9 | Beat | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | |
| 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.8 | In Line | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | ||
| GDP Growth Rate | -3.7 | 0.7 | — |
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Sales MoM | -1.4 | 2.4 | — | Falling4th Consecutive Decrease | ||
| Retail Sales YoY | 3.3 | 5.3 | 5.6 | Miss | Falling4th Consecutive Decrease | |
| -16 | -13 | -14 | Miss | Falling5th Consecutive Decrease | ||
| -0.5 | -1 | -1 | Beat | Rising4th Consecutive Increase | ||
| 68.3 | 71.3 | — |
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balance of Trade | 11.74 | 13.3 | 14.1 | Miss | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | |
| Trade Balance | 7.47 | 13.17 | — | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | ||
| 21.4 | 12.7 | 8 | Beat | Rising4th Consecutive Increase | ||
| 39.04 | 40.57 | — | ||||
| Imports | 21.3 | 31.44 | — |
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manufacturing PMI | 49.8 | 48.8 | 49 | Beat | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | |
| Services PMI | 51.3 | 51.3 | 51.1 | Beat | ||
| Composite PMI | 50.8 | 50.6 | 49.8 | Beat | Rising4th Consecutive Increase | |
| -0.6 | 0.4 | 0.5 | Miss | Falling3rd Consecutive Decrease | ||
| 49.5 | 52.8 | — | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease |
| 48.7 | 47.6 | — | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | |||
| -2.1 | -0.8 | -0.9 | Miss |
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Budget Balance | -2.2 | -2.5 | — | Rising3rd Consecutive Increase |
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Foreign Exchange Reserves | 731.76 | 769.022 | 770 | Miss | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | |
| Vehicle Sales YoY | 0 | -7.3 | 16.5 | Miss | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | |
| 279.4 | 55.6 | — | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | |||
| 13 | 11.3 | 13 | In Line | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | ||
| 12.8 | 13 | — | Falling3rd Consecutive Decrease |
