EPI = 100 − |inflation| − unemployment − deficit/GDP + GDP growth. Source: IMF WP/13/214 (Khramov & Lee, 2013).
Deficit/GDP sourced from Min Fin RU 2024
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 14.25 | 14 | In Line | Falling5th Consecutive Decrease | ||
| Central Bank Reserves $ | 761.2 | 755.6 | — | Rising5th Consecutive Increase |
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation Rate YoY | 6 | 6 | 6 | In Line | ||
| Inflation Rate MoM | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.6 | Miss | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | |
| 0.7 | 1.6 | 0.6 | Beat | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | ||
| CPI YoY | 6 | 6 | — | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | ||
| CPI MoM | 0.5 | 0.9 | — | Rising3rd Consecutive Increase |
| 6.6 | 10.5 | 10 | Miss | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | ||
| -2.5 | -0.1 | 0.6 | Miss | Falling4th Consecutive Decrease |
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unemployment Rate | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.2 | Beat | Rising3rd Consecutive Increase | |
| Real Wage Growth YoY | 3.4 | 4.5 | 4.1 | Miss | Falling5th Consecutive Decrease |
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP Growth Rate YoY | 1.3 | -0.2 | 0.2 | Beat | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | |
| Full Year GDP Growth | 1 | 4.9 | 0.9 | Beat | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | |
| 0.6 | 1.7 | 1.4 | Miss | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | ||
| GDP Growth Rate | -3.7 | 0.7 | — |
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Sales MoM | -1.4 | 2.4 | — | Falling4th Consecutive Decrease | ||
| Retail Sales YoY | 5.3 | 7.3 | 6.2 | Miss | Falling3rd Consecutive Decrease | |
| -13 | -12 | -16 | Beat | Falling5th Consecutive Decrease | ||
| -1 | -1.1 | -1.1 | Beat | Rising3rd Consecutive Increase | ||
| 68.3 | 71.3 | — |
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balance of Trade | 12.46 | 14.31 | 14.5 | Miss | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | |
| Trade Balance | 7.47 | 13.17 | — | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | ||
| 21.4 | 12.7 | 8 | Beat | Rising4th Consecutive Increase | ||
| 39.04 | 40.57 | — | ||||
| Imports | 21.3 | 31.44 | — |
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manufacturing PMI | 48.8 | 50.7 | 50.4 | Miss | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | |
| Services PMI | 49 | 48.2 | 48.3 | Beat | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | |
| Composite PMI | 49.6 | 48.9 | 49 | Beat | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | |
| 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | Miss | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | ||
| 49.5 | 52.8 | — | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease |
| 48.7 | 47.6 | — | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | |||
| -2.1 | -0.8 | -0.9 | Miss |
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Budget Balance | -2.8 | -2.5 | — | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase |
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corporate Profits | 11.7 | 11.3 | 12.9 | Miss | Rising5th Consecutive Increase | |
| M2 Money Supply YoY | 13 | 13.2 | — | Rising5th Consecutive Increase | ||
| Foreign Exchange Reserves | 720.348 | 720.4 | — | Falling3rd Consecutive Decrease | ||
| 0.3 | 27.5 | 25 | Miss | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | ||
| 136.2 | 123.2 | — | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease |
