Measures the change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level compared to the same month in the previous year. It is a primary indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity. High readings suggest a robust economy and increased consumer confidence, often leading to inflationary pressure.
Calculated by surveying a broad sample of retail firms of various sizes and types across the country. The data is then weighted to represent the entire retail sector and adjusted for seasonal variations to ensure accuracy.
| Date | Actual | Forecast | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 2, 2026 | — | 6.20 | — |
| Jul 29, 2026 | 7.30 | 8.00 | -0.70 |
| Jul 1, 2026 | 7.80 | 5.30 | +2.50 |
| Jun 3, 2026 | 6.50 | 2.70 | +3.80 |
| Apr 29, 2026 | 6.20 | 2.50 | +3.70 |
| Apr 1, 2026 | 2.00 | 2.80 | -0.80 |
| Mar 4, 2026 | 0.70 | 1.70 | -1.00 |
| Feb 6, 2026 | 3.90 | 3.20 | +0.70 |
| Dec 26, 2025 | 3.30 | 2.00 | +1.30 |
| Dec 3, 2025 | 4.80 | 2.30 | +2.50 |
| Oct 29, 2025 | 1.80 | 2.00 | -0.20 |
| Oct 1, 2025 | 2.80 | 2.30 | +0.50 |
| Aug 27, 2025 | 2.00 | 1.80 | +0.20 |
| Aug 8, 2025 | 1.20 | 2.10 | -0.90 |
| Jul 2, 2025 | 1.80 | 2.10 | -0.30 |
| Jun 4, 2025 | 1.90 | 3.50 | -1.60 |
| Apr 30, 2025 | 2.20 | 3.60 | -1.40 |
| Apr 2, 2025 | 2.20 | 1.10 | +1.10 |
| Mar 5, 2025 | 5.40 | 4.10 | +1.30 |
| Feb 7, 2025 | 5.20 | 4.50 | +0.70 |
| Dec 28, 2024 | 6.00 | 5.00 | +1.00 |
| Nov 27, 2024 | 4.80 | 6.00 | -1.20 |
| Oct 30, 2024 | 6.50 | 6.00 | +0.50 |
| Oct 2, 2024 | 5.10 | 5.50 | -0.40 |
| Aug 28, 2024 | 6.10 | 5.40 | +0.70 |
| Jul 31, 2024 | 6.30 | 6.30 | 0.00 |
| Jul 3, 2024 | 7.50 | 9.30 | -1.80 |
| Jun 5, 2024 | 8.30 | 8.00 | +0.30 |
| Apr 27, 2024 | 11.10 | 7.60 | +3.50 |
| Apr 3, 2024 | 12.30 | 11.00 | +1.30 |
| Feb 28, 2024 | 9.10 | 9.00 | +0.10 |
| Feb 7, 2024 | 10.20 | 12.00 | -1.80 |
| Dec 27, 2023 | 10.50 | 11.70 | -1.20 |
| Nov 29, 2023 | 12.70 | 11.20 | +1.50 |
| Nov 1, 2023 | 12.20 | 11.20 | +1.00 |
| Sep 27, 2023 | 11.00 | 10.00 | +1.00 |
| Aug 30, 2023 | 10.50 | 9.30 | +1.20 |
| Aug 2, 2023 | 10.00 | 9.50 | +0.50 |
| Jun 28, 2023 | 9.30 | 7.80 | +1.50 |
| May 31, 2023 | 7.40 | 5.80 | +1.60 |
| May 3, 2023 | -5.10 | -3.90 | -1.20 |
| Mar 29, 2023 | -7.80 | -11.10 | +3.30 |
| Mar 1, 2023 | -6.60 | -8.60 | +2.00 |
| Feb 8, 2023 | -10.50 | -9.50 | -1.00 |
| Dec 28, 2022 | -7.90 | -9.20 | +1.30 |
| Nov 30, 2022 | -9.70 | -9.80 | +0.10 |
| Nov 2, 2022 | -9.80 | -9.10 | -0.70 |
| Sep 28, 2022 | -8.80 | -8.50 | -0.30 |
| Aug 31, 2022 | -8.80 | -8.90 | +0.10 |
| Jul 27, 2022 | -9.60 | -8.70 | -0.90 |
| Jun 29, 2022 | -10.10 | -5.50 | -4.60 |
| Date | First print | Current | Revision |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 1, 2026 | 0.30 | 2 | +1.70 ↑ |
