Goldman Sachs Forecasts 25bps Fed Rate Hike Following Hot Inflation Data

Key Facts

1Goldman Sachs revised its forecast to expect a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate hike next week.

2Rate hike odds surged above 86% following hotter-than-expected inflation data.

In a move reflecting a shift in U.S. monetary policy expectations, Goldman Sachs has revised its forecast to expect a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate hike next week. This adjustment follows hotter-than-expected inflation data, which caused the odds of a rate increase to surge above 86% according to reports. This pivot marks a reversal from the bank's previous stance of a rate hold, signaling that persistent inflationary pressures are driving institutional expectations toward further tightening.

Amid these hawkish forecasts, market data shows varied performance across the banking sector; Goldman Sachs (GS) shares closed at $1029.18 on September 11, 2026. According to market data for the same date, peers such as JPMorgan (JPM) closed at $356.23, while Morgan Stanley (MS) stood at $214.38 and Bank of America (BAC) at $62.69. These price levels reflect how major financial institutions are positioned ahead of the Fed's decision and its subsequent impact on lending margins and profitability.

Traders should watch GS price levels, which saw a day low of $1018.59 as of the September 11, 2026 close. Looking at the upcoming economic calendar, there are no major U.S. monetary policy catalysts scheduled in the immediate days before the Fed meeting, leaving the market to focus on absorbing the new Goldman Sachs projections and their implications for high-risk assets.