Iranian Oil Revenue Set to Fall to Zero by Mid-December as Floating Stocks Run Out

Key Facts

Kpler forecast that Iran’s revenue from crude and condensates would fall to zero by mid-December, after floating oil stocks outside the blockade zone reached zero in mid-October. The estimate remains conditional on current conditions continuing and Tehran’s ability to repatriate sales proceeds; it does not mean revenue has already stopped. The company said Chinese buyers typically pay one to two months after cargoes are discharged, leaving cash flows from earlier shipments even after loading and transit are disrupted. Kpler wrote that "payments lag discharge by about two months, so Iranian crude and condensate revenue is assumed to dry up by mid-December, if Tehran can repatriate the associated revenue." This payment delay turns the disruption to shipments into pressure on cash flows in the coming period, rather than an immediate halt in revenue.

Iranian volumes afloat outside the blockade zone fell from a peak of 88.8 million barrels on 14 July to zero in mid-October, according to Kpler. By contrast, the company estimated that about 43 million barrels remained trapped inside the blockade zone, limiting Tehran’s ability to turn that oil into cargoes available for sale and delivery. Kpler said Iran had not loaded a crude or condensate cargo since 25 August, and tankers that loaded from mid-July had been unable to cross the blockade line. The inability to move cargoes prompted the National Iranian Oil Company to cut production to domestic needs, with output falling below 2 million barrels per day in the autumn. Kpler attributed part of the decline to the seasonal drop in domestic demand, alongside disruptions to tanker traffic.

The U.S. naval blockade of maritime traffic entering and leaving Iranian ports resumed on 14 July, after first being imposed from 13 April to 18 June, according to U.S. Central Command. In September, Reuters reported that Iran had not shipped significant volumes of crude through the Strait of Hormuz for about seven weeks. Vortexa and Kpler data put crude and condensate loadings at about 220,000 to 255,000 barrels per day in August, compared with about 740,000 barrels per day in July and about 2 million barrels per day in March. The comparison shows loadings falling before floating stocks outside the blockade zone reached zero in October. China buys about 90% of Iran’s oil exports, according to the U.S. Treasury Department, with independent Chinese refineries accounting for the largest share of those imports.

The revenue risks come as the Iranian government prepares its next budget around more than one possibility. Al Jazeera reported that a directive issued on 3 November set out two scenarios: continued sanctions, blockade and current regional conditions, or an improvement in conditions with financial and trade restrictions eased or the blockade partly or fully lifted. The report quoted Mohammad Ghasemi, deputy for coordination of planning and budget at Iran’s Plan and Budget Organization, as saying, "The government must prepare for conditions in which oil revenue reaches zero." Oil still accounted for about one-third of planned government financing in the 2026–27 budget proposal, despite the government’s increased reliance on taxes. Kpler estimated that oil sales account for about 30–40% of government revenue and are Iran’s largest source of foreign currency.

Revenue pressures are coinciding with a falling currency and rising prices. The World Bank said trade disruptions and difficulty repatriating export proceeds coincided with a sharp currency decline, and average inflation reached 84.8% in April–August 2026. Al Jazeera also cited Iran’s Statistical Center as reporting that annual inflation was about 89% in the Iranian month ending on 22 October. On 22 October, the dollar traded at about 272,000 tomans on the open market, compared with 157,000 tomans in mid-June, according to Kpler; the company estimated the currency had lost about 42% of its value over that period. The World Bank said it expected Iran’s GDP to contract 7.7% and the fiscal deficit to widen to 5.8% of GDP in 2026/27.

An economic analyst told Al Jazeera that lower oil revenues would put pressure on the government’s ability to fund salaries, pensions and basic goods and to maintain the currency’s value, and that sudden subsidy cuts could increase poverty. The government has signalled the possibility of further cuts to fuel and energy subsidies, with changes to be implemented gradually to limit their impact on inflation. The government spokesperson said next year’s budget priorities include controlling inflation, supporting households and tightening oversight of banks. In the oil market, Brent crude averaged $124 a barrel in October before its spot price fell below $100 on 4 November, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. The agency expected Iran’s exports to remain constrained during its forecast period and Brent to average about $100 a barrel in November and December.