Iran Has Loaded No Crude Cargoes Since Aug. 25 as Tanker Traffic Stalls Under Blockade
Key Facts
Kpler said Iran has not loaded any crude or condensate cargoes since Aug. 25, and tankers that loaded since mid-July have been unable to cross the blockade line. That leaves Iranian oil exports facing two constraints at once: loading has stopped, and cargoes that had already left port cannot pass through. The disruption matters because the Iranian government depends on oil sales, which Kpler estimates account for 30–40% of government revenue. The company said oil is the country’s largest source of foreign currency. The continued halt in shipments makes the timing of export-receivable collection critical to how transport restrictions affect revenue.
Chinese payments typically lag cargo unloading by about two months, according to Kpler, meaning the impact of the halt in loading may not immediately show up in revenue. The company forecast that crude and condensate revenue would dry up by mid-December. It tied that timing to the gap between oil reaching the buyer and payment settlement, according to its estimate. Iran Open Data estimated in a report published on Oct. 12 that Chinese buyers typically pay two to three months after delivery. The organization said Iran may collect some of its outstanding receivables by the end of 2026, leaving room to collect some money for earlier cargoes even as new flows are disrupted.
Iran’s exports to China fell to about half in the three months before Iran Open Data’s report, published on Oct. 12. The report added that about 15 million barrels held in floating storage off the Chinese coast were unloaded in the preceding weeks, leaving no floating reserves there. The depletion of that inventory points to a dwindling supply of barrels that could be delivered from stocks already near the buyer, alongside declining exports. By contrast, China’s merchandise imports rose 41.6% year over year in October, according to The Associated Press. The agency attributed part of the increase to a recovery in crude shipments from the Persian Gulf, but the merchandise-imports figure covers broader categories and does not measure China’s purchases of Iranian oil.
Chinese crude import data showed a monthly increase in volumes in October, despite a year-over-year decline. Imports totaled 41.94 million tons, equivalent to 9.88 million barrels a day, according to data reported by Reuters in a version published on Investing.com. The daily import rate rose 9.4% from September, while October imports were 13.3% below their level a year earlier. Reuters said the level was the highest since March. The figures put the recovery in crude supplies to China in a broader context without establishing that Iranian flows have resumed.
Independent Chinese refineries remain among the main buyers of Iranian oil, according to the U.S. Treasury Department. On April 28, the department estimated that China buys about 90% of Iran’s oil exports and that independent refineries account for most of those imports. On the currency front, Kpler said the dollar reached about 272,000 toman on the open market on Oct. 22, compared with 157,000 in mid-June. The company estimated that the toman had lost about 42% of its value over that period. In oil markets, Brent crude closed at $95.82 a barrel on Nov. 12, according to EL7 data.
The course of the blockade remains tied to political talks. The Associated Press reported that Iran had made an end to the U.S. blockade of its ports a precondition for nuclear talks, alongside the lifting of sanctions and the release of its assets. The agency quoted regional officials as saying Qatari mediators and Iran had discussed a possible preliminary deal that would include lifting the blockade and allowing International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors to enter sites that had been bombed. Proposals conveyed to both sides included confidence-building measures over two days. No timing was specified for implementing a deal or resuming shipments. The pace of loading and transit, together with the timing of receivables settlement, therefore remains directly relevant to the path of Iranian revenue.