Iranian Oil Exports Fall to 255,000 Barrels a Day as Pressure on Shipping Tightens

Key Facts

Iranian oil exports fell to about 255,000 barrels a day in August, from 1.85 million barrels a day in the spring, according to data compiled by a Kpler oil expert and cited by the Associated Press. The figures put exports under acute pressure, but measure oil shipped and do not establish that Iran’s production fell below 2 million barrels a day. In a separate estimate, Reuters said crude and condensate loadings were 220,000 to 255,000 barrels a day in August, compared with about 740,000 in July and about 2 million barrels a day in March. Reuters based its estimates on Vortexa and Kpler data. The decline in loadings and exports points to shrinking outlets for Iranian crude during the period covered by the reports.

Reuters said Iran had gone about seven weeks, through September 1, without significant crude export shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, and that no Iranian crude shipments had successfully reached China via the strait since the United States reinstated its blockade on July 14. According to the report, sales to China were limited to crude held in floating storage in Asia. The report quoted the founder of TankerTrackers.com as saying that 29 Iranian tankers were inside the strait carrying 36.11 million barrels of crude at the time. Reuters said it had not independently verified some of the vessel figures cited in the report. These details help explain the difference between crude being aboard tankers or in storage and its reaching buyers, and show that disruption to the shipping route was not in itself a measure of production.

In an action announced in October, the U.S. Treasury Department targeted 17 shadow fleet vessels, saying they had transported millions of barrels of Iranian crude, petroleum products and petrochemicals to markets in South and East Asia. The department said the action targets vessels responsible for moving these shipments and expands sanctions risks for parties that continue to trade with Iran. The decision puts the transport and shipping network among the U.S. pressure tools aimed at oil exports, alongside the transit restrictions cited in earlier reports. The department’s statement gave no new figure for Iranian exports or production. It also provided no estimate of the value of the targeted shipments, referring only to millions of barrels and the products transported.

Pressure on Iranian shipping coincides with the broader economic impact of the Gulf war, according to Allianz estimates published on November 9. The report forecast a 4.0% contraction in the gross domestic product of Gulf Cooperation Council countries in 2026, with the hydrocarbons economy shrinking 8.5% and trade 5.5% year over year. It estimated cumulative future production losses at $790 billion during 2026–2030 and the reconstruction bill at about $200 billion. These are separate estimates: the first covers future production losses over several years, while the second is a reconstruction bill. The $200 billion figure therefore does not describe realized damage, while the GDP, hydrocarbons and trade figures reflect the report’s 2026 forecasts.

U.S. energy data show that oil supply disruptions in the region affected prices in September, although the figures do not isolate Iran’s impact. Brent crude averaged $114 a barrel that month, up $23 from August, with the U.S. Energy Information Administration attributing the increase to attacks on oil infrastructure and tankers in the Middle East. The daily price reached $131 a barrel on September 15, after disruption to Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline. The agency said the pipeline had carried more than 5 million barrels a day of oil exports through the port of Yanbu before the attacks. Meanwhile, average crude production outages in the region fell to 4.8 million barrels a day in September, from 5.8 million in August and a peak of 10.9 million in May.

Estimates of Iran’s prewar production remain separate from later export and loading data. The Associated Press said Iran was pumping more than 3 million barrels of crude a day before the war, with slightly more than half of production going to the domestic market. The agency cited a Kpler estimate that remaining storage capacity was sufficient for about two weeks of production after it was reduced, at the time of its report in April. This background does not turn August export or loading figures into production figures; each measures a different stage in the flow of oil. The storage estimate also concerns remaining capacity at the time the report was published and does not provide an updated production or inventory figure for the subsequent period.