Limited U.S. strikes near Hormuz as about one-fifth of oil supplies pass through in peacetime

Key Facts

The United States carried out limited strikes near the Strait of Hormuz on Monday, 2 November, targeting Iranians who were using surface-to-air missiles against U.S. forces in the strait, according to a U.S. official cited by The Associated Press. Iranian media reported hearing explosions on the islands of Qeshm and Hengam, while the strikes had not been publicly announced when they occurred. Open-source reports did not identify the type of U.S. aircraft that came under fire, nor did they confirm the interception of an Iranian missile targeting commercial ships. The incident is significant because of its location near a vital maritime energy route: about one-fifth of global oil supplies passed through the Strait of Hormuz in peacetime, according to the agency. The escalation came as mediation efforts between Washington and Tehran continued, amid optimistic U.S. statements about the possibility of reaching a negotiated settlement.

Qeshm Island lies in the northern part of the strait, and CBS News said it is important to Iran for monitoring and controlling commercial traffic through the waterway. An Associated Press report said the last known attacks on Iran carried out by President Donald Trump's administration were in early September. Thousands of U.S. troops remained in waters off Iran to support the naval blockade, while another aircraft carrier and thousands of additional troops were due to head to the Middle East, the report said. Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf warned that "the ball is now in America's court to avoid war," and said Iranian forces were at the highest level of defensive readiness. The statements place the strikes in the context of broader tensions over the strait and the blockade, alongside stated efforts to keep negotiations open.

Trump said on Monday that a deal with Iran "could happen" and that Tehran wanted a settlement "as soon as possible." Vice President J.D. Vance added that both were optimistic about the prospects for a negotiated settlement and had made some progress. The Associated Press cited regional officials as saying mediation efforts had advanced and mediators were trying to establish a framework under which Iran would halt attacks in the strait in exchange for the United States lifting its blockade of Iranian ports. Further talks were scheduled during the week, the officials said. On 3 November, Qatar's foreign ministry said Washington and Tehran remained committed to mediation and were reviewing proposals to narrow their differences, and that the talks had made progress.

In a parallel track, Iran said it had a two-day plan to reopen the waterway and resume nuclear talks with the United States, according to an Associated Press report published on 3 November. In markets, Brent crude fell 7.4% to $105.03 a barrel on Monday, as hopes of ending the war were supported by signs of a resumption in dialogue, according to a CBS report citing the Associated Press and Agence France-Presse. Reuters said the two benchmark oil contracts fell more than 7% in the same session as talks between Iranian and Qatari officials lifted hopes of ending the war. On 3 November, Brent had traded above $107 before falling 3.3% to $101.32 a barrel at 13:50 GMT; Reuters attributed the subsequent decline to Trump's remarks about halting military aid to Israel. EL7 closing data put Brent at $104.77 a barrel on 2 November and then $106.56 on 3 November, while West Texas Intermediate's close rose from $96.46 to $98.51 over the two days.

Near-term developments include the American Petroleum Institute's report for the week ended 30 October, scheduled for 3 November according to the institute's calendar, which does not specify a release time or confirm that the report was available when the article was published. The Energy Information Administration's weekly report for the week ended 6 November is scheduled for the exceptional date of Thursday, 12 November, at 12 p.m. Eastern Time, because of the Veterans Day holiday. On the political front, statements from Qatar, the United States and Iran kept the possibility of continued mediation open during the week, while the mediators' proposed framework linked a halt to attacks with the lifting of the blockade on Iranian ports. Iran's announced plan to reopen the strait and the progress of nuclear talks remain developments to watch in the coming days. Oil prices following news of the strikes are being read alongside moves tied to separate statements and negotiating efforts, as sources did not attribute the 3 November decline to the strikes.