Iran Offers Two-Day Plan to Reopen Hormuz and Move to Nuclear Talks With Washington
Key Facts
The Associated Press reported on November 2 that Iran had offered a two-day plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and resume nuclear talks with the United States if Washington met Tehran’s demands. The proposal shortens a previous timetable that Iran said could take a week to implement, putting the reopening of the shipping lane and its link to negotiations at the center of diplomatic efforts. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei said the plan remained a basis for negotiations with Washington through mediators. The moves come as the strait has seen U.S. strikes on Iranian targets, according to a U.S. official cited by the agency. Tehran’s conditions and Washington’s position remain part of the negotiating process, and no agreement to reopen the strait has been announced.
Before revising the timetable, Iran had said its plan could be implemented within a week if the United States accepted seven conditions, including lifting the blockade on Iranian ports. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on October 31 that a proposal prepared with mediators could allow the strait to be fully reopened within two days, but said Tehran would not decide whether talks would be direct or indirect before Washington accepted its conditions. An earlier proposal, according to the Associated Press, included lifting the blockade on ports, releasing frozen Iranian assets and waiving sanctions on oil sales, among other conditions. The agency said that proposal was rejected. This background shows that shortening the announced timetable has not resolved the dispute over the demands that are supposed to precede reopening the passage.
The proposal is also linked to navigation arrangements after reopening: the Associated Press said ships would follow a route agreed by Iran and Oman. Mohsen Rezaei said on October 31 that passage would be under Iranian management, alongside adherence to the route agreed by the two countries. These arrangements make management of maritime traffic one of the issues that may require agreement, alongside the terms of negotiations between Tehran and Washington. On November 3, the agency reported that mediators were working on a framework under which Iran would stop its attacks in the strait in exchange for the United States lifting its blockade on Iranian ports. It added that further rounds of talks were planned during the week, without saying that the framework had been approved.
Oil prices moved higher in Tuesday trading after a sharp fall in the previous session. By 1043 GMT on November 3, Brent futures had risen $1.36, or 1.3%, to $106.13 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate gained $1.45, or 1.5%, to $97.91. The contracts had fallen more than 7% on Monday, as talks between Iranian and Qatari officials lifted hopes of ending the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran, according to Reuters. On November 3, a senior Iranian official told Reuters that Tehran and Washington remained far from an agreement to end the war and that Tehran would not accept Washington’s excessive demands. EL7 data recorded Brent’s close at $106.56 and West Texas Intermediate’s at $98.51 a barrel that day.
The significance of any understanding on Hormuz remains tied to energy flows and inventories, at a time when International Energy Agency data for September showed a partial recovery in oil traffic through the strait. Flows increased by 3.7 million barrels a day to 10.9 million, while Gulf exports via bypass routes rose by 970,000 barrels a day to 5.6 million. However, refined products and liquefied natural gas flows remained below half their prewar levels. In the same month, onshore inventories fell by 113 million barrels, and by the end of September observed global inventories were 509 million barrels below prewar levels. The agency forecast that the oil market would remain in deficit through the end of 2026 and that middle distillate supplies would remain tight into 2027.
In its 2026 outlook, the International Energy Agency said global oil demand would fall by 2.6 million barrels a day year on year to 102.4 million barrels a day, as high prices and deteriorating economic prospects in some countries weighed on consumption. The forecasts link supply disruptions with shifts in demand, while current negotiations focus on the terms for reopening the strait and lifting the blockade. The agency had noted that higher flows through Hormuz in September coincided with increased use of bypass routes, but refined products and liquefied natural gas flows remained below half their prewar levels. The Associated Press said the next talks were planned during the week, alongside mediators’ efforts to draft a framework linking a halt to attacks with the lifting of the blockade. The available information did not give a specific date for a round of talks or an expected outcome.