New U.S. strikes near Hormuz revive risks in strait carrying one-fifth of global oil
Key Facts
The United States struck Iranian targets in the Strait of Hormuz on Monday, November 2, in a new escalation near a sea lane that carries about one-fifth of global oil supplies in peacetime. A U.S. official told The Associated Press that the targets were Iranians using surface-to-air missiles against the United States in the strait. Washington did not publicly announce the strikes before they took place, unlike earlier operations during the war. Iranian media reported hearing explosions on Qeshm and Hengam islands, as well as in Bandar Abbas on the mainland. The Associated Press reported that oil rose in Tuesday trading after falling in the previous session.
The strikes came amid accounts of their locations and reasons that differed in the details published. Two U.S. officials told ABC that the United States carried out defensive strikes on Qeshm Island, with one describing the operation as limited and saying it did not mean a resumption of major combat operations. The network quoted a U.S. official as saying the strikes were in response to an Iranian attack on a U.S. aircraft. Iran had claimed the same day that it shot down two U.S. reconnaissance aircraft, but a U.S. official said the claim was false. CBS reported that a U.S. official linked the targeting of Qeshm to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps firing on a U.S. aircraft.
A U.S. official who spoke to The Washington Post described the action as defensive, intended to protect U.S. forces from Iranian forces using surface-to-air missiles, while another official said the strikes hit Iranian missile launchers. The Associated Press, meanwhile, said the official who spoke to it described the targets as Iranians using those missiles, with no prior public U.S. announcement of the operation. Iranian reports said explosions were heard on Qeshm and Hengam and in Bandar Abbas, but reports of explosions alone did not identify the locations of U.S. targets. U.S. Central Command last disclosed carrying out strikes in September, according to The Washington Post. The newspaper reported that U.S. forces then attacked five Iranian tankers in response to Iranian attacks on a U.S. military vessel, before Iran fired missiles at Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan the following day.
In oil markets, Brent crude rose nearly 2% to $106.50 a barrel in trading on Tuesday, November 3, after falling nearly 8% on Monday. U.S. crude rose 2% to $98.49 a barrel on Tuesday, after declining 8% at the start of the week. The Associated Press linked Brent's rise to the U.S. attack on Qeshm Island, and reported that U.S. crude recouped some of its losses. The strait remains important to the energy market because about one-fifth of global oil supplies pass through it in peacetime. According to The Associated Press, thousands of U.S. troops remained in waters off Iran to support a naval blockade preventing Iranian oil tankers from reaching the global market.
Diplomacy is continuing alongside military moves: Iran said it has a two-day plan to reopen the strait and resume nuclear talks with the United States. U.S. Vice President JD Vance said he and President Donald Trump were optimistic about the possibility of reaching a negotiated settlement. Two regional officials and a person familiar with the matter said talks scheduled for the week aimed to advance a framework under which Iran would end attacks on the strait in exchange for the United States lifting its blockade of Iranian ports. Officials also said further talks were planned during the week. On the military front, The Associated Press reported that another U.S. aircraft carrier and thousands of additional troops were heading to the Middle East.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration's report for the week ended November 6 is scheduled for release on November 12 at 12 p.m. Eastern time, according to the agency's schedule. The release date follows the Veterans Day holiday, the same schedule shows. On the Iranian track, Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi said Tehran retains the right to self-defense and signaled its readiness to continue negotiations through Qatari mediators. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Iranian negotiators were in Qatar to discuss a proposal that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but stressed that there were no direct talks with Washington. He added that the outcome depends on the U.S. response to Iran's questions.
On mediation, a UAE presidential adviser said his country hoped for a diplomatic breakthrough in Qatar-led efforts to avert another round of confrontation between the United States and Iran. Anwar Gargash warned that the gap between the two sides' positions was widening, saying: "If these positions are not bridged, we should worry about the worst." He added that military solutions would not provide quick ways out of the crisis. The remarks come as mediators seek to formulate a framework linking a halt to attacks on the strait with the lifting of the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports. Estimates cited by CBS put U.S. military spending on the war at at least $47.1 billion through mid-October.
The spending estimate cited by CBS included about $29 billion to replace munitions used, $6.1 billion for lost equipment and about $11.9 billion in additional costs, including support for U.S. service members. The network attributed the estimate to U.S. Central Command and said the latest figure for the cost of replacing munitions had been provided to lawmakers. This comes as U.S. forces continue to support the naval blockade off Iran. President Donald Trump wrote the previous month that the United States "will not attack Iran at any time before the midterm elections," while keeping the naval blockade in place. Markets and diplomats are watching to see whether the talks scheduled for the week will advance the reopening of the strait and an end to the attacks.