Oil Falls 4% as Iranian Delegation Leaves Doha and Mediation With Washington Continues
Key Facts
Oil prices fell about 4% on Monday as hopes grew that the latest round of mediation could lead to a diplomatic solution, while an Iranian delegation left Qatar after talks with Qatari mediators on an agreement to end the war. The Associated Press reported that a draft proposal had been circulated for comment and that discussions on holding a follow-up meeting were still under way. The moves come as Washington and Tehran remain at odds over the steps that should precede a resumption of nuclear negotiations. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said communications through mediators were "intensive" and that Tehran had submitted its conditions and proposals. Araqchi said the outcome depended on what he called "political rationality in Washington."
One point of contention is the sequence of concessions: Iran wants its conditions implemented first, while Washington ties concessions to progress on the nuclear file. The Iranian spokesman said a return to talks on the nuclear program would take place only after Tehran verified that all its conditions had been met. That puts verification of the conditions ahead of a resumption of negotiations, while Washington sees nuclear progress as a prerequisite for its concessions. U.S. President Donald Trump rejected a seven-step Iranian proposal in September, Reuters reported. Tehran said the proposal remained under discussion after being shortened, keeping the earlier framework in play in current consultations.
Iran’s conditions include the lifting of the U.S. blockade on Iranian ports, along with arrangements for navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran wants ships in the strait to follow a route agreed by Iran and Oman and to operate under Iranian supervision. This part of the proposal links easing restrictions on ports with managing ship traffic through the waterway. The talks concern reopening the strait and resuming nuclear negotiations, the Associated Press reported, citing Iran’s seven-condition plan. Including navigation arrangements in any agreement would make the waterway’s security a direct part of the negotiations.
UAE presidential adviser Anwar Gargash warned that the gap between the U.S. and Iranian positions could widen. He said that failing to bridge it "leaves us worried about the worst." In Egypt, the foreign minister warned that the next round of escalation would be "more dangerous and destructive, and would lead to no result." The statements reflect regional concerns that prospects for a settlement could recede if the disagreement over the sequence of conditions remains unresolved. Russia’s Foreign Ministry said reports of a possible resumption of military action against Iran were a source of "grave concern" and called for diplomatic efforts to be intensified.
International calls to keep the political track open are continuing as concerns grow over energy security and navigation in the Gulf. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said, after meeting an Iranian security official in Beijing, that the parties to the conflict should focus on "political solutions rather than returning to arms." A Qatari liquefied natural gas tanker was struck by unidentified objects in the Gulf on Friday, Reuters reported, citing its operator, Nakilat. The incident highlights the risks facing energy supplies amid regional tensions. In this context, the circulation of a draft agreement and mediators’ discussion of a follow-up meeting offer a practical path for continuing diplomatic efforts.
China is expected to send a special envoy to Iran, Oman and Saudi Arabia in early to mid-November to discuss de-escalation and strengthening regional stability, the Associated Press reported. The planned visit represents another diplomatic effort as Qatari mediation and discussion of the draft proposal continue. Iran’s stated plan would focus on reopening the Strait of Hormuz and resuming nuclear talks, while Tehran’s conditions and the sequence for implementing them remain in dispute. Gargash said the widening gap raised fears of the worst, while Egypt, Russia and China called for continued political efforts. The upcoming moves will be another test of mediators’ ability to keep negotiations going amid warnings of a renewed escalation.