Qatari talks stretch beyond 12 hours in effort to bring Washington and Tehran back to negotiations
Key Facts
Qatari mediators held talks in Tehran that lasted more than 12 hours on Friday, October 30, seeking an agreement to bring the United States and Iran back to direct negotiations and avert war after the midterm elections, Axios reported. A diplomatic source told the outlet that the talks had made "positive progress" and were still under way. The source added that the Qatari mediators had been in regular contact with the White House during Friday's session. Separately, Reuters reported that mediators had returned to Tehran as part of efforts to reach an agreement, with the mediation coordinated with Washington. Discussions were scheduled to move to Doha on Saturday, where the mediators are seeking to identify reciprocal steps that would allow dialogue to resume.
The sticking point is what each side should offer before negotiations resume. President Donald Trump's administration insists that Iran make concessions on its nuclear program, while Tehran is demanding that Washington first lift the naval blockade, release frozen funds and allow it to sell oil, according to a U.S. official cited by Axios. Mediators are working to persuade Iran to allow U.N. inspectors to visit the nuclear sites that were bombed. In return, the United States could offer some sanctions relief as a confidence-building measure. The mediation is exploring steps that could be implemented within a few days, paving the way for direct talks on the nuclear program and other issues. Neither side has announced its agreement to this arrangement or to a deal to resume negotiations.
The renewed focus on nuclear inspections highlights the International Atomic Energy Agency's ability to monitor Iran's facilities and stockpile. The agency said, according to the Associated Press, that it had been unable to verify the status of Iran's uranium stockpile since the nuclear sites were bombed the previous year. It estimated the stockpile enriched to up to 60% at about 440.9 kilograms. It said reaching the 90% level used to make a nuclear weapon requires only a short technical step from the current enrichment level. This stockpile puts monitoring nuclear material at the center of the proposal, alongside possible visits to the damaged sites. The trade-off under consideration by mediators is allowing inspections in exchange for some U.S. sanctions relief, though neither side has announced its acceptance.
The current mediation follows an interim agreement that Qatar and Pakistan helped broker in June. The Associated Press said the agreement aimed to restore shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, end the U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports and begin negotiations on a broader settlement that included the nuclear program. The outlet reported that the agreement quickly collapsed as attacks resumed. On October 26, the Associated Press reported that Iranian officials had not closed the door to diplomacy and that messages were being conveyed to the United States through mediators. Regional capitals were seeking to restart dialogue before the U.S. midterm elections scheduled for November 3. Axios reported that Egypt, Turkey, Iraq, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia had urged Iran to return to negotiations before the elections.
Diplomatic efforts are proceeding alongside preparations for the possibility of a return to combat operations. Axios reported that the commander of U.S. Central Command briefed Trump on Thursday on the status of the war and the naval blockade, as the administration pursued an agreement and prepared for the possibility of resuming large-scale operations after the midterm elections. The outlet cited U.S. and Israeli officials as estimating that a potential operation could involve a week of strikes on Iranian leadership, energy and nuclear targets, as well as infrastructure. That remains an assessment attributed to the officials, not an announcement of a decision to carry out an operation. In energy markets, December Brent futures rose $2.27 to $117.15 a barrel at 0845 GMT on October 30, according to Reuters. Prices were on track for their fourth consecutive monthly gain, as traders prepared for the possibility of an escalation in the conflict after the elections.