Brent falls 1.40% to $111.84 amid Iran-Qatar talks and OPEC+ decision
Key Facts
Brent futures fell $1.59, or 1.40%, to $111.84 a barrel by 00:11 GMT on November 2, while West Texas Intermediate stood at $102.56, down $1.56, or 1.50%. The decline came after Iranian and Qatari officials held a third consecutive day of talks aimed at advancing a deal to end the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran. Reuters quoted Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade, as saying that hopes for diplomatic progress and the absence of any tangible military escalation over the weekend had eased some immediate pressure on prices. Waterer said oil was also seeing “a technical correction this morning after last week’s strong gains.” This comes in a market where the Strait of Hormuz and the mediation track have remained central to supply and pricing concerns, while no deal to end the war has been announced.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said the purpose of the “ongoing and advanced” talks was to continue consultations with Qatari mediators, adding that Tehran was ready for “defense and diplomacy.” The Associated Press reported that Iranian negotiators in Qatar were discussing a proposal that could allow the Strait of Hormuz to reopen within two days if the United States met several conditions. Araghchi said no direct talks with Washington were taking place. The proposal tied reopening the strait to meeting those conditions, leaving its implementation dependent on the course of negotiations. Araghchi said Iran hoped Washington would choose “diplomacy rather than other paths,” and that Tehran’s readiness to defend itself or negotiate depended on the United States’ “rationality.”
EL7’s daily closing data show an upward move in the session before the early decline: Brent closed at $113.43 on October 30, after $110.80 on October 29. WTI closed at $104.12 on October 30, compared with $102 the previous day. These closes differ from the futures prices recorded in early trading on November 2, as they refer to two separate points in time. Against the backdrop of the war, the Associated Press reported that Qatar’s Nakilat said its vessel Al Reem was struck by unknown objects in the Arabian Gulf on Friday night. The company said the vessel remained operational and its crew members were unharmed, while the agency cited no evidence linking the incident to the ongoing talks.
Disruption to navigation in the strait remains part of the supply picture surrounding the negotiations. The Associated Press quoted Iran’s Revolutionary Guard as saying 4 oil tankers were struck by mines and caught fire on Friday, October 30, including a tanker carrying more than 2 million barrels; however, the agency said it could not verify the claims. In an earlier report, the agency said Qatari mediators had returned to Tehran on Friday to negotiate with Iranian officials in a diplomatic effort to end the war with the United States and Israel. The account of the Iranian proposal published in September describes a 7-day deadline beginning as soon as the United States accepts the plan, including reopening the Strait of Hormuz and resuming nuclear talks under specified conditions and steps. That timetable in the earlier proposal differs from the proposal to reopen the strait within two days reported by the agency in its latest coverage, and neither establishes that an agreement has been reached.
International Energy Agency data add a mixed backdrop to the market outlook: in its October report, the agency forecast that global oil demand would fall year over year by 2.5 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2026, and by an average of 2.6 million barrels per day over the year. By contrast, it said observed global oil inventories were 509 million barrels lower at the end of September than at the end of February. The agency estimated that crude exports from Gulf producers rose in September by 4.4 million barrels per day to 13.9 million barrels per day, exceeding 75% of pre-war levels. It also forecast that the oil market would remain in deficit through the end of 2026, with middle distillate supplies staying tight well into 2027. In its September report, it said North Sea Dated crude averaged $91 a barrel in August before reaching $113.48 on September 9.
On the supply side, 7 OPEC+ participating countries decided at a virtual meeting on November 1 to keep the required production level for December 2026 at the September 2026 level. The organization said the participating countries would continue to hold monthly meetings and set the next meeting for November 29, 2026. The decision followed the setting of the December target, while Reuters attributed part of the price decline to diplomatic and technical factors and the absence of major escalation over the weekend. After the U.S. midterm elections on November 3, Waterer said escalating rhetoric over Iran could push Brent toward $120 a barrel; the analyst tied that scenario to stronger rhetoric, not to a confirmed price level. Talks, the terms of the Hormuz proposal and supply developments remain market-watching factors, while the OPEC+ meeting on November 29 is the next scheduled institutional date.