EL7.AI
CommoditiesMedium•28 October 2026•
2 min read

European Gas Contract Nears €100 as Middle East Shipments Disrupted Ahead of Winter

Key Facts

1The European benchmark gas contract touched €100 per megawatt-hour during Wednesday’s session.
2The contract has risen more than threefold from about €30 per megawatt-hour in February 2026.
3LNG flows through the Strait of Hormuz accounted for nearly 20% of global supply before the disruption.
4The average TTF price in the second quarter of 2026 was about $16 per million British thermal units, up 32% year on year.
5Europe’s stocks could fall below 30% by the end of winter 2026-2027 if LNG availability remains limited.

The European benchmark natural gas contract touched €100 per megawatt-hour during Wednesday’s session, with supplies remaining tight amid disruption to LNG shipments from the Middle East and winter approaching, according to a Reuters report. The report said the Dutch contract briefly exceeded that level, a jump that has brought energy risks back to the fore in European markets. Contracts were trading near €30 per megawatt-hour in February 2026, before the outbreak of the war linked to Iran, and have since risen more than threefold, according to SBS News. This trajectory places the current rise in the context of the supply disruption that began with the war, rather than as a price move separate from LNG markets. The coming winter remains the main concern as Europe relies on LNG flows to offset supply shortages.

The International Energy Agency said the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz since the war broke out in late February disrupted flows that had accounted for nearly 20% of global LNG supply. It added that the disruption to these flows had caused sharp price volatility as importing markets compete for available gas cargoes. The average price of the Dutch contract in the second quarter of 2026 rose 32% year on year to about $16 per million British thermal units, according to the agency. That was the highest average for a second quarter since 2022. The sequence of prices indicates that market pressure preceded the latest jump, as the impact of supply disruption passed first into quarterly average prices and then into higher levels ahead of winter.

Europe’s LNG regasification capacity is about 1,600 terawatt-hours per winter season, equivalent to roughly 145 billion cubic meters, according to the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Gas. But the network linked maintaining supply balance to the continued arrival of LNG cargoes. It warned that continued limited availability could push stocks below 30% of capacity by the end of winter 2026-2027. This trajectory could amplify the impact of late cold spells and may also constrain the refilling of stocks the following summer. That makes the volume of cargoes available during winter a key factor in the path of European stocks after the high-demand season ends.