EL7.AI
CommoditiesMediumUpdated×2•Originally published 28 October 2026•Updated 28 October 2026•
3 min read

European Gas Contract Touches 100 Euros for First Time Since December 2022 Amid Supply Disruption

Key Facts

1The TTF contract was up about 4% from the previous session when it touched 100 euros.
2Hormuz disruptions trapped about 20% of global LNG exports from Qatar and the UAE, most of which were bound for Asia.
3LNG loadings from Qatar and the UAE fell by 35 billion cubic meters year on year between March and June 2026.
4Global LNG production declined 4%, equivalent to 8 billion cubic meters, between March and June 2026 year on year.

The Dutch TTF natural gas contract, Europe’s benchmark front-month contract, briefly touched 100 euros at around 13:35 GMT on October 28, the first time since December 2022. The jump came amid concerns about tight supplies this winter, with Europe entering the season with inventories below usual levels. The contract was up about 4% from the previous session when it touched the threshold, according to Reuters. The timing of the move is significant, as the European market faces competition for LNG cargoes while needing to rebuild reserves. The price touched the level briefly, and the available facts do not indicate that it stayed above 100 euros.

Supply pressures partly stem from disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which trapped LNG exports from Qatar and the UAE equivalent to about 20% of global exports, according to a Reuters report dated October 12. Most of those cargoes were bound for Asia, putting European buyers in competition with Asian markets for available supplies. The International Energy Agency said LNG flows through the strait accounted for about 20% of global supplies before the disruption, and that the interruption led to sharp price volatility. Between March and June 2026, LNG loadings from Qatar and the UAE fell by 35 billion cubic meters year on year. Over the same period, global LNG production declined 4%, equivalent to 8 billion cubic meters compared with the same period a year earlier.

Prices had followed a shifting course during the year before touching 100 euros: front-month TTF prices fell 24% in the first two months of 2026 compared with the same period in 2025, according to the International Energy Agency. The average TTF price then rose 32% year on year in the second quarter to about 16 dollars per million British thermal units. The agency described this average as the highest for a quarter since 2022. These readings reflect a shift in the market from falling prices at the start of the year to a rally linked to supply disruption. The agency also linked the disruption to LNG flows through Hormuz to sharp price volatility, as Gulf shipments and global supplies declined.

Higher wholesale prices take time to reach consumers. Reuters said households are likely to feel the full impact of this year's increase during 2027 as fixed-term retail contracts are renewed. The agency expected global LNG trade to remain broadly stable year on year in 2026. But it warned that a delayed recovery in Gulf exports could lead to the first annual decline in supply since 2012. Reuters said European households and industries face at least another year of high gas prices, even if the war in Iran ends and the winter is mild, because inventories need to be replenished. The recovery path for Gulf exports and the restocking of inventories are key factors in the price outlook, while the full impact of the increase on consumers is likely to emerge in 2027.