European Gas Tops 90 Euros for First Time Since 2022 as Inventories Fall
Key Facts
Europe's benchmark gas contract breached 90 euros per megawatt-hour during Tuesday's session for the first time since December 2022, according to Investing.com, as winter approaches and the region has limited supply headroom. In the following Wednesday's session, the Dutch front-month gas contract rose 3.1% to trade at 87.95 euros per megawatt-hour, according to another report by the website. European gas storage was about 74.6% full in Wednesday's report, the lowest seasonal level since 2009. The decline in reserves comes as the loss of gas supplies from the Middle East has intensified competition for spot cargoes available to Europe, according to Reuters. Securing those cargoes is part of addressing lower inventories as the region enters the winter demand season with limited operational headroom, according to ABN Amro's assessment.
This followed a difficult season for injecting gas into underground storage facilities, according to the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Gas. The network said EU storage was 72% full on October 1, 2026, at the end of what it described as a difficult injection season. In an earlier report in September, Investing.com cited Bloomberg as saying European storage was just over 70% full. That report compared the fill level with a typical seasonal rate of 86%, highlighting how far reserves were below their usual level for that period. These reserves are important for meeting demand during the colder months; the network said storage withdrawals supplied about 26% of EU gas consumption during the winter of 2025/26.
With inventories lower, Motaz Altaghlibi, senior energy economist at ABN Amro, told Reuters the region "does not face an actual supply shortage." But he pointed to its lack of sufficient operational headroom, putting supply flexibility at the heart of winter preparations. Meanwhile, the United States, Canada and Nigeria have increased their liquefied natural gas exports, according to the Reuters report. The increase in exports from these countries coincided with the loss of Middle Eastern supplies, intensifying competition for spot cargoes Europe can secure. Alternative suppliers' contributions to supply thus coincide with stronger competition for available volumes, at a time when the region needs to make up for lower stored reserves.
Europe has infrastructure to receive and regasify LNG that can offset part of the decline in inventories, according to the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Gas. The network estimates European regasification capacity at about 145 billion cubic metres during the winter season. This capacity provides an additional supply route alongside volumes withdrawn from storage facilities to cover winter consumption. However, the availability of LNG itself remains a factor in the network's projections for reserves through the end of the season. It warned that continued constraints on availability could push inventories well below 30% by the end of winter, magnifying the impact of late cold spells and making refilling more difficult.
In another assessment of winter risks, ABN Amro warned of the implications of a cold season for European reserves in a Reuters report published in October. It said a cold winter could push storage fill levels into a range of 10% to 15%. The bank links this scenario to a cold winter, with lower reserves making the following refill season more difficult. The transmission operators' network, meanwhile, links its warning of falling inventories to continued constraints on LNG availability and includes the risks posed by late cold spells. These warnings converge on the prospect that the impact of depleted reserves will extend beyond the winter consumption season, when inventories need to be rebuilt.
Earlier, analysts and specialist organisations had forecast that European storage would be between 75% and 78% full by November 1, according to Reuters. This estimate puts expected reserves at the start of that month within a narrow range, following the difficult injection season described by the transmission operators' network. During winter, European supplies face another change as the full European ban on Russian LNG imports begins in January 2027. Reuters reported that the ban taking effect adds pressure on supplies available to the region. That date falls during the season for which specialist organisations have warned that limited LNG availability or colder weather could affect end-of-season inventories and make refilling more difficult.