28 Attacks on Ships in Hormuz and Its Approaches in October Lift War Toll to 113

Key Facts

October saw the highest number of attacks on ships since the war began, with 28 confirmed and reported attacks in the Strait of Hormuz and surrounding waterways, according to the Washington Institute map managed by researcher Noam Raydan. The institute counted 113 confirmed and reported attacks since the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran began on February 28. October’s figure includes waterways around the strait and does not limit incidents to the strait itself. Describing incidents as confirmed and reported does not identify any particular party as responsible for each strike. Raydan said October’s total was the highest on record.

The institute’s tally differs from the broader figures reported by the International Maritime Organization, which recorded 120 incidents in the Strait of Hormuz and the wider Middle East since the conflict with Iran began. The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations, or UKMTO, said it had recorded 135 incidents linked to the U.S.-Iran conflict through October 16. The agency said a lack of voluntary reporting by shipping companies makes it difficult to build a complete picture of events. The figures reflect differences in monitoring scope, the definition of an incident and the data-gathering body. Each organization’s tally therefore remains tied to its methodology and geographic coverage.

Regarding damage to ships, a Reuters review of International Maritime Organization figures and MarineTraffic data found that more than 30 very large crude carriers had been damaged since the conflict began, including 11 in October alone. The tally refers to damaged ships and does not mean all were destroyed or permanently taken out of service. A vessel in the VLCC class can carry about 2 million barrels of crude oil. The listed tankers represent about 3.5% of the global fleet in this class, which numbers more than 900 vessels. The cargo capacity and recorded damage put cargo safety and maritime transport capacity at the center of monitoring developments.

Two incidents involving Singapore-flagged ships drew attention as they transited the strait in mid-October. The Maritime and Port Authority of Singapore said GFS PRIDE and GFS GISELLE were struck by unidentified projectiles on October 13 and 14, respectively. GFS PRIDE sustained damage that sparked a fire and then sank; all 21 crew members were safely evacuated. GFS GISELLE’s hull was damaged, but it continued under its own power until reaching a safe anchorage. There were 22 people on board, and the authority confirmed both crews were safe and that no injuries had been reported.

Transit data showed a weekly decline in oil tanker and gas carrier passages, from 105 transits in the period from September 28 to October 4 to 81 transits between October 5 and 11. Despite the decline, separate data showed Gulf operators continuing to work in the area, with little sign of withdrawal despite 28 attacks recorded during October through the 22nd. Reuters said shipowners had become more willing to load cargoes inside the Gulf, with daily freight rates exceeding $1 million, alongside larger discounts offered by regional producers relative to dated Brent. These figures show maritime activity continuing alongside elevated risks and transport costs. The available figures do not include an oil price tally or an estimate of the attacks’ effect on prices.

Raydan linked the intensification of attacks to an effort to slow the recovery in shipments and keep pressure on global energy markets ahead of the U.S. midterm elections in November. She said Iran was seeking, through escalating attacks, to "slow the recovery in shipments and keep pressure on global energy markets" before the elections. This interpretation comes amid October’s record tally, tanker damage and the decline in oil tanker and gas carrier transits in the week covered by the data. The port authority’s statement did not identify responsibility for the projectiles that struck the two Singapore-flagged ships, and the institute’s figures did not attribute every incident to Iran. With the November elections approaching, continued ship movements and the level of incident reporting remain among the facts markets are monitoring.