More than 3,000 ships transited the Strait of Hormuz with US support as efforts seek to contain escalation
Key Facts
High-level delegations from Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkey arrived in Tehran on Monday, October 26, in an effort to prevent a resumption of fighting, while sources familiar with US intelligence assessments told CNN that Iran and the Houthis could respond immediately to any new operations launched by the United States and Israel. The sources said a potential response could target US personnel and facilities in the region and possibly beyond. Trump had not decided what he would do after the midterm elections, CNN reported, citing its sources. Trump said Sunday that he would not strike Iran that day, according to The Associated Press. The delegations’ move comes as negotiations over the war appeared stalled for weeks, while the region watches for the risk of renewed fighting.
The diplomatic efforts included Qatari mediators who arrived in Tehran on Sunday in coordination with the United States, before the Saudi, Pakistani and Turkish delegations arrived the following day. Saudi Arabia said the delegations hoped to find ways to reduce tensions and strengthen regional security and stability. The efforts come ahead of Israel’s elections scheduled for Tuesday and the US midterm elections on November 3, amid fears of renewed fighting before both votes, according to The Associated Press. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had said the military was ready to defend and strike, warning of a strong response to any Iranian attack. Netanyahu said: "The military is ready to defend and strike." The statements bring together ongoing regional efforts and mutual threats at a politically sensitive time.
The diplomatic efforts face a recent setback: Pakistan and Qatar helped broker a deal in June aimed at fully reopening the Strait of Hormuz to shipping, ending the US blockade of Iranian ports and starting broader negotiations on the nuclear program. But the deal quickly collapsed as attacks resumed on both sides. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei said Tehran had not closed the door to diplomacy and that messages were being conveyed to the United States through mediators. His comments came as The Associated Press described negotiations as having appeared stalled for weeks. The failure of the June deal means the current efforts begin from a recent record that did not succeed in cementing a halt to escalation or resuming broader talks.
Navigation through the Strait of Hormuz remains a direct focus of regional risks, with the US Maritime Administration saying Iran continues to threaten commercial vessels and carry out strikes against them in the Arabian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz and the Gulf of Oman. It added that the risks of attacks on commercial shipping and navigational hazards remain elevated in these areas. US maritime advisory 2026-011 remains in effect through March 8, 2027. Meanwhile, Adm. Brad Cooper said more than 3,000 commercial vessels had transited the passage with US military support during the six months before his statement on October 25. The figure underscores the scale of shipping traffic requiring security support in a passage where Washington says transit risks remain elevated.
The concerns were reflected in markets during the week, with Brent settling Friday, October 23, up 3.1% at $116.72 a barrel, its highest level since June 2022. Crude had remained below $97 a barrel since early October, according to The Associated Press. Brent then fell 1.6% on Monday, October 26, to $109.95 a barrel, while US benchmark crude dropped 2.2% to $101 a barrel. The rise in oil had weighed on US stocks Friday, with the S&P 500 falling 0.5%, the Dow Jones 1.2% and the Nasdaq 0.2%. As oil fell Monday, S&P 500 futures rose 0.2%, Dow Jones futures gained 0.4% and Nasdaq futures advanced 0.1%.
Investors are also focused this week on the Federal Reserve’s decision and inflation and growth data. The central bank holds its meeting on October 27 and 28, with the press conference scheduled for October 28. The personal consumption expenditures price index was expected to show inflation rising at a 3.7% rate in September, compared with the Fed’s 2% target. The preliminary reading of US economic growth in the third quarter is due Thursday, October 29. Results from Alphabet, Microsoft and Amazon were also expected during the week. These economic releases and corporate results come alongside mediation efforts and the maritime warning extending through March 2027.