Commercial Shipping Attacks in October Reach Highest Level Since March Amid Hormuz Disruption
Key Facts
October saw the highest number of reported attacks on commercial shipping since the first weeks of the war in March, according to an assessment by the UK Maritime Trade Operations unit cited by the Associated Press. Risks have risen as oil trade relies on alternative transit routes through the Strait of Hormuz and tanker operating costs climb. On October 22, Iran said 7 oil tankers had caught fire or been damaged after being struck or hitting naval mines. But the Associated Press said the UK Maritime Trade Operations unit had not recorded those latest incidents. The difference in monitoring reflects that accounts of reported incidents do not necessarily match incidents documented by maritime authorities.
Incident figures vary according to the scope of monitoring: the UK unit's assessment cited by the Associated Press covers reported attacks on commercial shipping during October, while the International Maritime Organization's record includes confirmed incidents in the Strait of Hormuz and the Middle East. This distinction matters when comparing the current count with previous months, because the scope of "reported attacks" is not automatically the same as the number of incidents verified by the organization. In the October 22 incident, Iran attributed the damage to strikes or naval mines, while the UK unit did not record it. The tally should therefore be read in the context of the monitoring body and its definition of an incident. The rise in reports puts shipping security at the forefront of concerns over delivering oil through the region.
Estimates cited by the Associated Press suggest that an average of about 6 million barrels a day or more passed through the unannounced nighttime transport route in the Strait of Hormuz, equivalent to 40% or more of prewar flows. The route relies on tankers transferring oil between ships rather than using a single traditional shipping route. The agency said tankers wait in the Gulf of Oman for at least a day and a half to conduct ship-to-ship transfers. The wait adds time to the journey and increases the need for costly tankers. These figures show the scale of flows carried by the alternative route and underscore its reliance on successive maritime operations and costly operating conditions.
Charter rates for very large crude carriers rose to $1 million a day on September 11 to transit Hormuz, or about $26 a barrel, according to Windward data cited by the Associated Press. Charter rates for these tankers typically ranged from $30,000 to $50,000 a day before the increase, the agency said. These figures refer to the cost of chartering a tanker and do not represent delay fees. The wide gap between the usual level and the cost recorded in September highlights the pressure on the maritime transport market. Calculating the rate per barrel also shows how higher tanker costs can add a direct burden to crude transport.
Brent rose during October before retreating over the last two days of available data. It closed at $108.79 a barrel on October 20, then at $116.72 on October 23, before falling to $115.81 on October 26 and $113.78 on October 27, according to EL7 data. The Associated Press said Brent rose 3.1% on October 23, reaching its highest level since June 2022, after trading below $97 at the start of the month. In the week ended October 23, crude rose more than 6% and closed below $117, according to Bloomberg. U.S. West Texas Intermediate also closed above $103 that day. These moves place oil prices in a volatile setting where rising maritime risks overlap with supply concerns.
Alongside disruption to shipping, Bloomberg said attacks claimed by Yemen's Houthi movement on Saudi Arabia's Yanbu port, as well as strikes on an oil field and an airport, added to supply concerns already stemming from the U.S.-Iran war. These developments heighten the market's sensitivity to possible supply disruptions, as oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz and bypass routes remain under scrutiny. The Associated Press said drawdowns of commercial inventories, particularly in China, helped keep prices in check. It added that those drawdowns cannot continue indefinitely. The market impact of tensions is therefore tied to the alternative nighttime route's ability to keep moving crude and to how long reliance on commercial inventories can continue.