Trump Signals Another Military Operation Against Iran Ahead of Midterm Elections
Key Facts
U.S. President Donald Trump said the United States could carry out another military operation against Iran at a campaign rally in Florida on Friday, October 23, without announcing a decision or a date for the operation. A transcript of the rally quoted him as saying: “We could do another small Epic Fury operation, or they will agree.” He added: “If they’re smart, they’ll say, ‘Let’s get down to business.’” Reuters reported that the war was then nearing the end of its eighth month, while rising fuel prices were weighing on the U.S. midterm elections. The remark has brought the prospect of renewed military action back into focus after Trump had spoken of the possibility of ending the war quickly.
The phrase “Epic Fury” carries a broader meaning than a possible new operation: the U.S. military uses it as the name for the ongoing war against Iran. The White House had announced that Trump authorized the operation on March 1, 2026, setting out its objectives as removing what it described as Iran’s nuclear threat, destroying its missile arsenal, weakening its proxy networks and crippling its naval forces. Trump’s remarks, therefore, were not an official announcement of an operation under that name, but a signal that additional military action could be taken. He gave no details at the rally about its scale, targets or timing. His statement was also conditional on Tehran’s agreement, linking the possibility of military action to the Iranians’ willingness to sit down for negotiations.
The threat of escalation comes less than three weeks after Trump pledged not to launch an attack before the November 3 election, according to a Reuters report on October 8. In that report, the agency said Washington and Tehran had exchanged proposals in previous weeks to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a major route for global energy shipments. But Trump rejected Iran’s latest proposal, the same report said. Before Friday’s remarks, he said he could end the war quickly, but questioned whether Washington should seek to end it or let it gradually fade. He said: “We can end it very quickly. Do we want to get it over with or let it fizzle out?” The remarks show two paths Trump is publicly presenting: reaching a settlement or continuing the war, with the possibility of another operation.
The cost of the war is directly tied to the price pressures Reuters cited in the context of the election. According to American Automobile Association data cited by the Associated Press, the national average price of gasoline was $4.33 per gallon on October 16, up 45% from its prewar level. The average price of diesel was $6.33 per gallon, up 68% from its prewar level. Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s, estimated that the war had cost the average American household nearly $2,000 as of October 17, including $1,100 due to higher energy prices. Zandi said a household’s energy costs are rising by $50 a week at current fuel prices. The U.S. Energy Information Administration projected that winter heating costs would rise 21% for about 3% of households that rely on heating oil, assuming moderate weather.
The Strait of Hormuz remained a focus of negotiations and a source of disruption to shipping. Iran said 7 oil tankers caught fire or were damaged in the strait on the night of October 21, according to the Associated Press, which said it had not independently verified the account. At an online seminar on Thursday, Lloyd’s said 28 attacks had targeted ships during October, the highest number since the war began, while British monitors reported that the month had seen the highest number of reported attacks on commercial shipping since March. The agency reported that tankers continued to carry oil through the strait under U.S. military protection, and that an alternative sea route had brought shipments back to levels close to those before the war, but at a higher cost in time, money and sailors’ lives. A U.N. spokesperson said the priority was to reopen the passage and reduce tensions, urging Washington and Tehran to resume diplomacy.
On the military front, the Associated Press reported that the United States was sending a third aircraft carrier and thousands of troops to the region, joining the largest U.S. force of ships and aircraft in the Middle East in decades. Trump did not link his statement in Florida to any specific movement by those forces, nor did he announce a decision on a new operation. Negotiations to end the war and reopen the strait remain on the table, despite the rejection of Iran’s latest offer, according to Reuters. At the same time, the president’s remarks reflect his ambivalence between ending the conflict quickly and letting it gradually recede, while also raising the possibility of another strike. The election date cited in his earlier pledge was November 3, as fuel costs continue to weigh on U.S. voters.