EL7.AI
GeopoliticsMediumUpdated×3•Originally published 22 October 2026•Updated 22 October 2026•
4 min read

Trump wants lasting outcome with Iran after pledging to avoid attack before November 3

Key Facts

1Brent crude touched $111.99 a barrel on Tuesday amid concerns over Middle Eastern supplies.
2The Energy Information Administration raised its forecast for the average Brent spot price in the fourth quarter of 2026 to $105 a barrel, an increase of $14.
3Trump's earlier pledge to avoid an attack on Iran set the November 3 elections as the end of the period it covered.
4Araghchi said indirect talks with the United States were continuing through mediation by Pakistan and Qatar.
5The U.S. Treasury warned that facilitating money laundering or sanctions evasion for Iran puts those involved at risk of being cut off from the U.S. financial system.

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Wednesday that the United States could leave Iran now, but he wanted an outcome that would last, according to Anadolu Agency, as disagreements persisted over negotiations and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. In separate remarks carried by the agency, he said he did not believe Washington was negotiating with Tehran, a position at odds with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi's assertion that indirect talks were continuing. Araghchi linked making the strait accessible to everyone to reaching an agreement or understanding on it, according to The National. The latest U.S. remarks follow Trump's earlier pledge not to attack Iran before the midterm elections. The president had paired that pledge with keeping the U.S. naval blockade in place "in full force," according to the newspaper.

On the diplomatic front, Araghchi said indirect contacts with the United States were continuing through mediation by Pakistan and Qatar, according to The National. He also said Washington was seeking to add further provisions to the Iranian proposal, according to CBS News. The proposal calls for an end to the U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports and ships, alongside reopening the Strait of Hormuz, where Iran restricts navigation. Araghchi outlined Tehran's position on passage through the strait by saying it "will not be open to everyone" before an agreement or understanding is reached on it. Tehran thus links access to the shipping route to an understanding with Washington, while attributing the continued mediation to Pakistani and Qatari channels.

On the military front, Axios reported that an Israeli sortie toward the Iranian border crossed Syrian and Iraqi airspace. The report discussed deliberations over a new military operation against Iran. But it said Trump had backed away from the proposal, having previously ruled out an attack before the U.S. elections. His earlier position, as reported by The National, included maintaining the blockade despite ruling out an attack during that period. The U.S. blockade targets Iranian ports and ships, while Iran's restrictions concern navigation through the Strait of Hormuz.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Treasury Department expanded sanctions to include legal service providers and companies linked to Iranian shipping, according to its statement. The measures included the law firm Karnakis & Karnakis, which operates from Panama and Greece and which the department accused of creating companies that conceal ownership of vessels transporting Iranian goods. The department also sanctioned Singapore-based Amigoz, saying it provided services for a light crude shipment linked to Sepehr Energy. It added that Amigoz provided bunkering services to a vessel in Iran's shadow fleet. The sanctions also covered Dubai-based Wells Shipping Line, which Treasury accused of acting as an agent for sanctioned Sparrow Trading. The department said Sparrow Trading arranged purchases of Iranian petrochemicals.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned that supporters of the Iranian regime would be pursued and sanctioned, whether they participated in illicit oil transport or provided legal services. He said in the department's statement: "If you support the Iranian regime, we will find you and sanction you." Treasury also warned that facilitating money laundering for Iran puts those involved at risk of being cut off from the U.S. financial system. The warning also covers facilitating sanctions evasion, according to the statement. These risks extend to non-U.S. entities, alongside the targeting of companies and service providers operating outside the United States.

In energy markets, Brent crude touched $111.99 a barrel on Tuesday, according to The National's report, amid concerns over supplies from the Middle East. The U.S. Energy Information Administration had raised its forecast for the average Brent spot price in the fourth quarter of 2026 to $105 a barrel. That was an increase of $14 a barrel from its forecast the previous month, according to its October report. The new estimate concerns the average price during the fourth quarter, while Tuesday's level represents a price crude touched during trading. These developments coincided with Araghchi maintaining his position that opening the Strait of Hormuz to everyone depended on reaching an agreement or understanding on it.

The U.S. midterm elections on November 3 will be the next political milestone identified in Trump's earlier pledge to avoid an attack on Iran, according to The National. The vote concerns control of Congress, where Republicans hold narrow majorities in both chambers. That gives the elections significance for the Trump administration's legislative power. His pledge on Iran was limited to the period before the vote, with his assurance at the time that the blockade would continue. Meanwhile, opening the Strait of Hormuz to everyone remains contingent on reaching an agreement or understanding on it, according to Araghchi's stated position.