Brent at $114.14 as supply fears mount and Trump accuses Iran of driving up prices
Key Facts
Brent crude closed at $114.14 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate at $100.72 on October 23, according to EL7 data, with U.S. crude returning above $100. The close followed a 4% jump in Brent on Thursday, October 22, according to the Associated Press, which said prices remained near their highest levels since May amid fears of war with Iran. In a post on Truth Social, U.S. President Donald Trump accused Tehran of trying to push up oil prices ahead of the midterm elections, Reuters reported via Arab News. Trump said Iran was "making up attacks and mines and everything else," referring to claims of incidents in the maritime corridor. Price movements and shipping in the strait put supply at the heart of tensions between Washington and Tehran.
A comparison of the two daily closes shows Brent rising from $113.17 on October 22 to $114.14 the following day, while West Texas crude climbed from $99.47 to $100.72. U.S. crude therefore closed above $100 on October 23, after being below that level the previous day, while Brent extended its gains. The Associated Press had reported that Brent rose 4% on Thursday, a move that preceded the two closes in EL7 data. The agency also said Brent had risen from below $97 at the start of October, as uncertainty continued over the return of the global energy industry to normal. These figures point to an upward path during the month, not prices holding steady at a single level.
Concerns are focused on the Strait of Hormuz, where Iranian media said 7 oil tankers caught fire or were damaged overnight on Thursday after being attacked or striking sea mines. The Associated Press said it could not independently verify the Iranian account of the tankers. Separately, the agency cited Lloyd's List Intelligence data showing 28 attacks on vessels during October, the highest number since the start of the war, according to the company. The agency said tankers were still moving oil through the strait under U.S. military protection despite the increase in attacks. It added that rerouting and ship-to-ship transfers had raised shipping costs and transit times, putting disruption to supply flows among the factors monitored by oil markets.
In a separate estimate, Amrita Sen, head of energy research for the Middle East at Kpler, told The Washington Post that geopolitical risks add $30 to the price of a barrel of oil. This is the analyst's estimate as reported by the newspaper, not a figure issued by an official pricing body. The newspaper also quoted Iranian officials as saying Tehran sees the weeks before the U.S. midterm elections on November 3 as an important window to pressure Trump through escalation in the Strait of Hormuz. In Iran's rhetoric, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on Wednesday that his country remained open to diplomacy but was prepared to defend itself, according to the Associated Press. Araghchi had said in an interview published on September 27 that Iran was ready for both diplomacy and war if fighting resumed, a previous statement that does not date to October 23.
Official U.S. data reflect the elevated price levels in recent months: the Energy Information Administration said the average spot price for Brent was $114 a barrel in September, up $23 from August. The agency attributed the increase to attacks on oil infrastructure and tankers. For the fourth quarter of 2026, the agency forecast an average Brent price of $105 a barrel, with average disrupted production of 4.5 million barrels a day amid continuing constraints on oil flows from the Middle East. On the other side of the supply equation, the International Energy Agency said member countries had released about 330 million barrels from stocks through October 15. The agency said about 100 million more barrels remained in planned releases and that member countries had agreed to take the necessary steps to complete them.
U.N. spokesman Stéphane Dujarric called on Washington and Tehran to return to diplomacy, reopen the strait and reduce tensions, saying this was necessary "for the people of the region and the wider world." The appeal puts de-escalation and freedom of navigation among the options being pursued alongside stock releases, while statements from both sides and shipping risks remain part of the picture monitored by markets. The U.S. midterm elections on November 3 are a near-term political milestone in the context of the messages the newspaper attributed to Iranian officials. The fourth-quarter price and disrupted-production estimates are Energy Information Administration forecasts, not realized figures. The outlook centers on completing planned stock releases and on developments in shipping and diplomacy over the Strait of Hormuz.