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The information provided on EL7.AI is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
Amid escalating geopolitical risks reshaping the global energy supply landscape, Commerzbank has revised its Brent crude forecast upward to $90 per barrel by late September and $85 by year-end. According to reports, the bank attributes this revision to prolonged disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, which are exerting significant pressure on global inventories. Analysts suggest that 'cheap oil' is unlikely in the near term as sustained friction prevents global stockpiles from recovering as previously anticipated.
These forecasts arrive as markets face tightening conditions, with API data released on May 27, 2026, showing a crude inventory draw of 2.8 million barrels, supporting the bank's thesis on supply constraints. In a broader context, Commerzbank’s outlook appears more aggressive than peers like Goldman Sachs, which has recently maintained a trading range of $70-$90, reflecting a divergence in how major lenders price the duration of conflict premiums per market data.
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Sign InTraders are currently monitoring Brent price levels following the recent close on May 29, 2026, as the market looks for a firm floor above previous resistance. Key catalysts to watch in the coming days include the official EIA crude inventory report and upcoming speeches from Fed officials Logan and Cook, which could influence the US Dollar's trajectory and, consequently, the pricing of dollar-denominated commodities.