Iraq, UAE, and Saudi Arabia Set for Major Oil Production Surge by 2027

Key Facts

1A report by BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions, predicts a 34.1% surge in Iraqi oil production in 2027 as it rebounds from the Iran war impacts.

2Most Gulf oil producers will see double-digit percentage growth in crude production next year following shut-ins caused by the Strait of Hormuz closure.

Amid geopolitical shifts reshaping the Middle East energy landscape, major regional producers are projected to significantly ramp up crude supplies. A report by BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions, predicts a 34.1% surge in Iraqi oil production during 2027 as the country rebounds from the impacts of the Iran war. Furthermore, most Gulf oil producers are expected to see double-digit percentage growth in crude production next year, following significant shut-ins caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

This anticipated expansion comes as regional nations strive to bolster production capacities to offset losses from previous years, where regional conflicts caused sharp volatility in supply chains. Compared to current output levels, this surge reflects a long-term strategy to secure market share, especially as vital shipping lanes face ongoing pressure. Per market data, these long-term supply expectations typically exert downward pressure on oil futures as investors weigh how the market will absorb the additional crude.

In the immediate term, traders are monitoring U.S. API Crude Oil Stock Change data, which showed a decrease of 2.8 million barrels as of May 27, 2026. Market participants should also watch upcoming Fed speeches for their impact on the U.S. Dollar, which influences commodity pricing. As 2027 approaches, production levels in Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE will remain a focal point for assessing OPEC+ commitment to market balance in light of these projected increases.