The information provided on EL7.AI is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.

Track Record

Track the accuracy of our AI intelligence for economic indicators

Overall Accuracy

39.9%

Total Predictions

143

High Confidence Accuracy

66.7%

Edge Accuracy

50%

Coverage Rate

36.4%

Outcome Breakdown

57/86

Correct / Incorrect

Accuracy Over Time

Accuracy by Confidence Tier

n=9n=19n=115

Accuracy by Signal Type

Accuracy by Country

Best & Worst Indicators

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Recent Predictions

Date	Event	Country	Tier	Direction	Outcome	Result
2026-05-05 14:00:00+00	New Home Sales	الولايات المتحدة	★☆☆	↓	Beat	\u2717
2026-05-05 12:30:00+00	Imports	الولايات المتحدة	★☆☆	↓	In-line	\u2717
2026-05-04 07:45:00+00	Manufacturing PMI	إيطاليا	★☆☆	↑	In-line

Methodology

How It Works

The system analyzes 7 types of economic signals for each indicator before release: leading indicators, revisions, seasonal patterns, momentum, mean reversion, spillover effects, and macro context. These signals are combined into a final prediction with a 4-tier confidence level.

Signal Types

Leading: data that precedes the indicator temporally. Revisions: direction of prior data adjustments. Seasonal: historical patterns in the same period. Momentum: continuation of surprise trends. Mean Reversion: extreme values returning to average. Spillover: other countries' data influencing the indicator.

Confidence Tiers

★★★ High: multiple aligned signals with historical accuracy above 60%. ★★☆ Medium: good signals with some conflict. ★☆☆ Low: weak or conflicting signals. ☆☆☆ Context: reference information only without directional prediction.

Academic Basis

The system is based on econometric and machine learning research, including leading indicator models (Stock & Watson), revision analysis (Mankiw & Shapiro), and adjusted seasonal patterns.