EPI = 100 − |inflation| − unemployment − deficit/GDP + GDP growth. Source: IMF WP/13/214 (Khramov & Lee, 2013).
Deficit/GDP sourced from Eurostat / ELSTAT 2024
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13-Week Bill Auction | 2.38 | 2.22 | — | Rising5th Consecutive Increase | ||
| 2.58 | 2.34 | — |
| Rising5th Consecutive Increase |
| 52-Week Bill Auction | 2.62 | 2.41 | — |
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation Rate YoY | 5 | 3.8 | 3.7 | Beat | Rising3rd Consecutive Increase | |
| Inflation Rate MoM | 2.1 | 0.4 | 0.7 | Beat | Rising3rd Consecutive Increase | |
| CPI | 2.7 | 2.5 | — | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | ||
| CPI YoY | 2.5 | 2.6 | — | Rising3rd Consecutive Increase | ||
| 14.9 | 11.8 | 12 | Beat | Rising3rd Consecutive Increase |
| 5.1 | 3.7 | 3.6 | Beat | Rising3rd Consecutive Increase |
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unemployment Rate | 7.4 | 7.9 | 8 | Miss | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease |
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP Growth Rate YoY | 1.9 | 2 | 1.6 | Beat | Falling3rd Consecutive Decrease | |
| GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.4 | Miss | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | |
| 2 | 2.3 | 1.9 | Beat | Falling3rd Consecutive Decrease | ||
| 0.2 | 0.7 | — | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | |||
| -4.6 | -5.6 | -5 | Beat |
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Construction Output YoY | 7.1 | 16.5 | 7.9 | Miss | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease |
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Sales MoM | 2.1 | -3.7 | — | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | ||
| Retail Sales YoY | 5.2 | 1.9 | 1 | Beat | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | |
| -47.9 | -47.9 | — | ||||
| 104.9 | 103.5 | — | Rising4th Consecutive Increase |
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balance of Trade | -2.2 | -3.1 | -3.2 | Beat | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | |
| Current Account | 0.218 | -0.603 | 0.5 | Miss | Rising5th Consecutive Increase |
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manufacturing PMI | 54 | 54.4 | 53.6 | Beat | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | |
| Industrial Production YoY | 5.8 | -1.1 | -0.3 | Beat | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase |
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Credit YoY | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.4 | Beat | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | |
| HICP YoY | 2.7 | 3.9 | — | Falling3rd Consecutive Decrease | ||
| Credit Expansion YoY | 4.9 | 5.4 | — | Falling3rd Consecutive Decrease | ||
| -1.6 | -1.5 | — | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | |||
| -2.9 | -3.1 | — |
