Stock Index
EPI = 100 − |inflation| − unemployment − deficit/GDP + GDP growth. Source: IMF WP/13/214 (Khramov & Lee, 2013).
Deficit/GDP sourced from Eurostat / INSEE 2024
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.4 | 2.1 | 2.2 | Beat | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | ||
| 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.6 | Beat | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase |
| CPI | 0.6 | 0.7 | — | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease |
| CPI YoY | 2.4 | 2.1 | — |
| CPI MoM | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.7 | In Line | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase |
| Producer Price Index YoY | 3.4 | 2.8 | 2.7 | Beat | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | |
| Producer Price Index MoM | 1.1 | -0.4 | 0.6 | Beat | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | |
| Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY | 2.7 | 2.4 | 2.5 | Beat | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | |
| 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.5 | Beat | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | ||
| CPI n.s.a MoM | 0.6 | 0.6 | — | Falling3rd Consecutive Decrease | ||
| CPI n.s.a YoY | 2.1 | 2.1 | — | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease |
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unemployment Rate | 8.3 | 8.1 | 8.2 | Beat | Rising5th Consecutive Increase | |
| Unemployment Benefit Claims | 21.5 | 5.9 | 10 | Beat | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | |
| 3143 | 3121.5 | 3131.5 | Beat | Rising4th Consecutive Increase | ||
| -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.1 | In Line | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease |
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP Growth Rate YoY | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.7 | In Line | ||
| GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 0 | -0.2 | 0.2 | Miss | ||
| 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | Miss | Falling4th Consecutive Decrease | ||
| 0 | -0.2 | 0.2 | Miss | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease |
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Construction PMI | 41.5 | 38.2 | 39.8 | Beat | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase |
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Sales MoM | 0.1 | -1.6 | 0.5 | Miss | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | |
| Retail Sales YoY | -2.9 | -2 | -3.2 | Beat | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | |
| 86 | 86 | 87 | Miss | |||
| 103 | 101 | 101 | Beat | Rising3rd Consecutive Increase | ||
| 0.5 | 0.6 | 0 | Beat | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease |
| 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | Beat | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease |
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balance of Trade | -5.8 | -7.7 | -6.5 | Beat | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | |
| Trade Balance | -5.5 | -5.7 | -5.2 | Miss | Rising5th Consecutive Increase | |
| -1.4 | -1.2 | -2.4 | Beat | Falling3rd Consecutive Decrease | ||
| 54.5 | 53.2 | 55.1 | Miss | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | ||
| 60.4 | 60.9 | 60.7 | Miss | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease |
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manufacturing PMI | 51.1 | 49.8 | 51.5 | Miss | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | |
| Services PMI | 48.4 | 49.6 | 49.8 | Miss | Falling3rd Consecutive Decrease | |
| Composite PMI | 48.8 | 49.4 | 49.5 | Miss | Falling3rd Consecutive Decrease | |
| -1.8 | -1.1 | — | Falling5th Consecutive Decrease | |||
| 0.1 | -0.1 | 0.3 | Miss | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase |
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Budget Balance | -145.9 | -106.8 | -147 | Beat | Falling5th Consecutive Decrease |
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Car Sales YoY | 7.4 | 9 | 4 | Beat | Falling3rd Consecutive Decrease | |
| 3-Month BTF Auction | 2.533 | 2.495 | — | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | ||
| 2.655 | 2.675 | — | Rising4th Consecutive Increase | |||
| 2.86 | 2.832 | — | Rising4th Consecutive Increase | |||
| 2.7 | 2.4 | — |
| HICP MoM | 0.8 | 0.6 | — | |||
| 98 | 97 | 98 | In Line | Rising4th Consecutive Increase | ||
| 2.24 | 1.87 | — | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease |
| Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI | 41.08 | 41.57 | — | Rising3rd Consecutive Increase |
| Foreign Exchange Reserves | 357.05 | 355.389 | 355.7 | Beat | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase |
| New Car Sales MoM | 46.9 | -7.1 | — | Rising3rd Consecutive Increase |
| New Car Registrations YoY | -14.7 | -6.6 | -4 | Miss | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease |
| New Car Registrations MoM | -38 | 30.1 | — |
| 5-Year OAT Auction | 2.53 | 2.8 | — | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease |
| 14-Year OAT Auction | 3.71 | 3.1 | — | Rising4th Consecutive Increase |
| 5-Year BTAN Auction | 2.76 | 2.32 | — | Rising3rd Consecutive Increase |
| 3-Year BTAN Auction | 2.82 | 2.56 | — | Rising5th Consecutive Increase |
| 2-Year BTAN Auction | -0.01 | -0.07 | — |
| 4-Year BTAN Auction | 0.03 | 0.12 | — |
