Stock Index
EPI = 100 − |inflation| − unemployment − deficit/GDP + GDP growth. Source: IMF WP/13/214 (Khramov & Lee, 2013).
Deficit/GDP sourced from Eurostat / INSEE 2024
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.1 | 2.4 | 3 | Beat | Rising3rd Consecutive Increase | ||
| -0.3 | 0.7 | -0.3 |
| In Line |
| CPI | 0.6 | 0.7 | — | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease |
| CPI YoY | 0.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | In Line | Rising3rd Consecutive Increase |
| CPI MoM | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.7 | In Line | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease |
| Producer Price Index YoY | 4.8 | 3.5 | 4.1 | Beat | Rising3rd Consecutive Increase | |
| Producer Price Index MoM | 1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | Beat | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | |
| Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY | 3.4 | 2.6 | 3.4 | In Line | ||
| -0.3 | 0.7 | -0.4 | Beat | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | ||
| CPI n.s.a MoM | -0.3 | 0.3 | — | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | ||
| CPI n.s.a YoY | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | In Line | Rising3rd Consecutive Increase |
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unemployment Rate | 8.3 | 8.1 | 8.2 | Beat | Rising5th Consecutive Increase | |
| Jobseekers Total | 3081.7 | 3143 | 3158 | Miss | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | |
| -61.3 | 21.5 | 15 | Miss | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | ||
| -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.1 | In Line |
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP Growth Rate YoY | 1.3 | 1 | 1.1 | Beat | Rising3rd Consecutive Increase | |
| GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 0 | -0.2 | 0.2 | Miss | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | |
| 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | Miss | Falling4th Consecutive Decrease | ||
| 0 | -0.2 | 0.2 | Miss | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease |
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Construction PMI | 39.8 | 37.3 | 39 | Beat | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase |
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Sales MoM | 0.1 | -1.6 | 0.5 | Miss | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | |
| Retail Sales YoY | -2.9 | -2 | -3.2 | Beat | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | |
| 86 | 86 | 85 | Beat | |||
| 101 | 101 | 102 | Miss | |||
| -0.5 | 0.4 | 0 | Miss | Falling3rd Consecutive Decrease |
| -0.5 | 0.4 | 0 | Miss | Falling3rd Consecutive Decrease |
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balance of Trade | -6.1 | -6.6 | -6.5 | Beat | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | |
| Trade Balance | -5.5 | -5.7 | -5.2 | Miss | Rising5th Consecutive Increase | |
| -1.5 | -3.9 | -4.3 | Beat | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | ||
| 54.2 | 54.6 | 55.1 | Miss | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | ||
| 60.3 | 61.2 | 61.6 | Miss | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease |
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manufacturing PMI | 50.6 | 51.1 | 50.3 | Beat | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | |
| Services PMI | 51.2 | 48 | 51.4 | Miss | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | |
| Composite PMI | 51.1 | 48.5 | 51.2 | Miss | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | |
| -1.8 | -1.1 | — | Falling5th Consecutive Decrease | |||
| -0.3 | -0.6 | 0.3 | Miss | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase |
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Budget Balance | -159.6 | -145.9 | -160.2 | Beat | Falling5th Consecutive Decrease |
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI | 37.63 | 40.55 | — | Falling4th Consecutive Decrease | ||
| OAT Auction | 4.16 | 3.92 | — | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | ||
| 2.761 | 2.786 | — | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | |||
| 2.964 | 2.997 | — | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | |||
| 3.255 | 3.262 | — | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease |
| 370.203 | 380.694 | 381 | Miss | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | ||
| 11.6 | 7.4 | 2.9 | Beat | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | ||
| 96 | 98 |
| Miss |
| Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease |
| New Car Sales MoM | -25.6 | 46.9 | — | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease |
| New Car Sales YoY | 7.4 | 9 | 4 | Beat | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase |
| HICP YoY | 2.7 | 2.4 | — | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase |
| New Car Registrations MoM | -38 | 30.1 | — | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease |
| HICP MoM | -0.4 | 0.1 | -0.4 | In Line | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase |
| 5-Year OAT Auction | 2.53 | 2.8 | — | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease |
| 14-Year OAT Auction | 3.71 | 3.1 | — | Rising4th Consecutive Increase |
| 5-Year BTAN Auction | 2.76 | 2.32 | — | Rising3rd Consecutive Increase |
| 3-Year BTAN Auction | 2.82 | 2.56 | — | Rising5th Consecutive Increase |
| 2-Year BTAN Auction | -0.01 | -0.07 | — |
| 4-Year BTAN Auction | 0.03 | 0.12 | — |
