| Factor | Score | Distribution | Value | Avg | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Valuation | 79 | 11.1x | 17.8x | Top tier | |
Growth | 78 | 14.1% | 7.1% | Top tier | |
Quality | 66 | 11.4% | 4.5% | Around median | |
Safety | 86 | 0.9x | 2.6x | Top tier | |
Capital Return | 40 | 3.39% | 2.12% | Around median | |
Momentum | 44 | 25.6% | 2.9% | Around median | |
Sentiment | 79 | 8 | 3 | Top tier |
Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.
Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.
ZTO Express operates an express delivery network in China that relies on sorting hubs, intercity transportation, franchise outlets, and last-mile delivery. It generates its core revenue from parcel transportation while developing a higher-value mix that includes retail parcels and reverse logistics services for key account KA customers; retail parcel volume increased 46% in fiscal year 2025 and approached 10 million parcels per day in quarter 4 of fiscal year 2025, supporting realized price and core revenue.
In quarter 4 of fiscal year 2025, parcel volume increased 9.2% to 10.56 billion parcels and market share expanded 0.8 percentage points, while revenue rose 12.3% to 14.5 billion yuan. Adjusted net income reached 2.7 billion yuan, but gross profit declined 2.1% to 3.7 billion yuan and its margin fell 3.7 percentage points to 25.4%, while operating income dropped 7.6% to 3.2 billion yuan and its margin decreased 4.7 points to 22%.
In fiscal year 2025, parcel volume increased 13.3% to 38.5 billion parcels and revenue rose 10.9% to 49.1 billion yuan, while adjusted net income reached 9.5 billion yuan. Gross profit declined 10.5% to 12.3 billion yuan and its margin fell 6 points to 25%, while operating income decreased 11.1% to 10.5 billion yuan; meanwhile, operating cash flow reached 12 billion yuan and capital expenditures were 6.1 billion yuan. The latest EDGAR data available within the provided information indicate that fiscal year 2017 revenue was 13.1 billion dollars, net income was 3.2 billion dollars, and earnings per share were 4.4, compared with revenue of 9.8 billion dollars, net income of 2.1 billion dollars, and earnings per share of 2.91 in fiscal year 2016.
The average analyst price target is 30.85 dollars, within a narrow range of 30.1 to 31.6 dollars, with a “Buy” consensus; the average is approximately 17.7% above the upper end of the 52-week range of 26.2 dollars. However, the price-to-earnings ratio is unavailable in the provided information, preventing this optimism from being tested against a specific earnings multiple, while the 52-week range of 17.74–26.2 dollars demonstrates the breadth of the repricing. The positive analyst outlook is offset by a 6-point decline in gross margin and a 5.3-point decline in operating margin in fiscal year 2025, along with expectations of slower industry growth in fiscal year 2026.
Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-29; the live price is shown at the top of the page.
Parcel volume increased 9.2% to 10.56 billion parcels, exceeding industry growth of 5%, and market share expanded 0.8 percentage points. Revenue rose 12.3% to 14.5 billion yuan, and adjusted net income reached 2.7 billion yuan. Conversely, gross profit declined 2.1% to 3.7 billion yuan and its margin fell to 25.4% because costs grew faster than revenue.
Management expects parcel volume growth of between 10% and 13% in fiscal year 2026, equivalent to 42.37–43.52 billion parcels. This compares with the Postal Bureau's estimate of 8% industry growth during fiscal year 2026. ZTO is therefore targeting growth faster than the industry after recording 38.5 billion parcels and growth of 13.3% in fiscal year 2025.
As of the March 17, 2026 call, ZTO had deployed three-dimensional digital twins and computer vision across 25 super sorting centers, reducing sorting errors by 60%. Its AI-powered customer service system handles more than 70% of work requests, while Ask Xiaotong and Tracking Assistant cover more than 80% of routine outlet inquiries. In the last mile, precision mapping and route planning helped reduce short-haul transportation costs at large outlets by more than 20% and supported the allocation of tens of millions of orders per day during the peak retail parcel collection period.
Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.
Total cost of revenues increased 20.5% to 36.8 billion yuan in fiscal year 2025, compared with revenue growth of 10.9% to 49.1 billion yuan. Core unit cost increased 0.07 yuan to 0.94 yuan, with the 0.13 yuan increase in KA cost being a major factor. As a result, gross margin declined 6 points to 25% and operating margin fell 5.3 points to 21.3%, despite an 8.8% reduction in combined transportation and sorting costs.
In February 2026, ZTO issued 1.5 billion dollars of five-year convertible notes and allocated the net proceeds of approximately 1.4 billion dollars to share repurchases. As of the March 17, 2026 call, it had completed approximately 600 million dollars of repurchases and planned to complete 800 million dollars during the following year. The board of directors also approved a new 1.5 billion dollar program extending through March 2028 and a semiannual dividend of 0.39 dollars per American depositary share, with a target of total annual returns of at least 50% of the previous fiscal year's adjusted net income beginning in fiscal year 2026.
ZTO's retail parcel volume increased 46% in fiscal year 2025, and daily volume reached nearly 10 million parcels in quarter 4 of fiscal year 2025. The KA mix, particularly higher-value reverse logistics services, added 0.15 yuan to realized price in that quarter. However, this expansion increased KA cost by 0.13 yuan, so its ultimate impact depends on the company's ability to balance mix improvement with the cost of providing the service.
