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Ermenegildo Zegna N.V.
ZGN

ZGN Ermenegildo Zegna N.V.

Ermenegildo Zegna N.V. · NYSE
Market Closed
11.61
▼ ⁦-0.17%⁩ (-0.02)
Market Cap$3.1B
Beta0.89
52w Low52w High
8.1715.95
Last Week
⁦-10.97%⁩
Last Month
⁦-23.67%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦-15.13%⁩
Last Year
⁦+40.73%⁩
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall69
Strong — clearly above market medianSuper StockF 7/8Better than 69% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
72
27.9x▼17.8xTop tier
▸
Growth
54
-1.5%▼7.1%Around median
▸
Quality
80
—4.5%Top tier
▸
Safety
50
2.4x▲2.6xAround median
▸
Capital Return
26
1.18%▼2.12%Bottom tier
▸
Momentum
64
89.9%▲2.9%Around median
▸
Sentiment
62
8▲3Around median
Fair Value
Low confidenceCurrent price$12
Analyst target · 4 analysts
$14
⁦+16%⁩
See it undervalued
Range ⁦$12–$16⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
N/A (negative FCF)

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 4 analysts setting price target
$13.68
⁦+17.8%⁩
Current Price $11.61·Median $13.50
Low
$12.20
High
$15.50
Current price
$11.61
Average target
$13.68
Street summary

Limited Variation in ZGN Price Targets with Two Downgrades

The average price target remained at 13.68 with no change over one day, but declined 1.58% over 7 days from 13.90, while rising 0.81% over 30 days from 13.57. The target range remains varied between 12.20 and 15.50, with a median of 13.50, while the number of analysts held steady at 4; this indicates that dispersion persists without an expansion in coverage.

As of 2026-09-11
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦+0.8%⁩
Average rating
★ 3.67
Buy
Analyst coverage
12
Buy conviction
67%
High
Rating activity · 30d
0↑ · 0↓
Target dispersion
28%
Analyst ratings over time12 analysts rating
2
6
3
1
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months3.85 → 3.67
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-09-04
    UBS
    Buy
  • ⬇ Downgrade2026-08-11
    BNP Paribas
    NeutralUnderperform
  • = Reiterate2026-07-24
    TD Cowen
    Buy
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    27.86x
    4.56x36.49x
    Near median
  • Forward P/E
    —
    —
  • EV / EBITDA
    9.56x
    2.75x22.03x
    Cheap
  • FCF Yield
    9.3%
    -30.9%16.2%
    Strong
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    -1.5%
    -13.8%31.9%
    Below average
  • EPS Growth YoY
    26.7%
    -156.9%135.6%
    Above average
  • Gross Margin
    67.5%
    12.0%66.5%
    Exceptional
  • ROIC
    —
    —
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    2.36x
    0.65x5.48x
    Low debt
  • Dividend Yield
    1.2%
    0.1%5.9%
    Low
  • Payout Ratio
    31.6%
    8.9%99.8%
    Low
  • Altman Z-Score
    —
    —
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-09-03 data

Company Overview

Ermenegildo Zegna N.V. operates a luxury fashion group comprising the Zegna, Thom Browne, and TOM FORD Fashion segments. The Zegna segment includes the eponymous brand, the textile division, and third-party brand operations, while the group is increasing direct-to-consumer sales and reducing its reliance on wholesale; in the first half of fiscal 2026, the DTC channel accounted for 86% of the group’s branded revenues, compared with 82% in the corresponding period, and carries a higher gross margin than wholesale.

In the first half of fiscal 2026, revenues totaled €987 million, and gross profit was €668 million at a margin of 67.6%. Adjusted earnings before interest and taxes increased to approximately €74.5 million from €68.7 million, with the margin reaching 7.5%, while selling, general, and administrative expenses declined as a percentage of revenues to 53.8%, and marketing spending totaled €68 million, or 6.9% of revenues.

Profitability varied markedly across segments in the first half of fiscal 2026: the Zegna segment generated adjusted earnings before interest and taxes of €107 million at a margin of 14.8%, compared with 14.3% in the corresponding period, while Thom Browne recorded a loss of €8 million after a profit of €4 million, and TOM FORD Fashion narrowed its loss to €12 million from €19 million. At the group level, net profit declined to €28.4 million from €47.9 million, with part of the comparison related to €28 million of non-cash, non-taxable income recorded in the first half of fiscal 2025 as a result of remeasuring the Thom Browne put option liability.

What's Driving the Stock

  • The DTC channel continues to support the group’s economics; its share increased to 86% of branded revenues in the first half of fiscal 2026, and higher revenue per square meter and improved sell-through rates helped the Zegna segment expand its adjusted earnings before interest and taxes margin by 50 basis points to 14.8%.
Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

  • Management reported on September 3, 2026, that Zegna’s DTC sales maintained strong double-digit growth across regions and nationalities during July and August 2026, with increases in customer numbers and volumes in the first half, and growth in categories including footwear such as Triple Stitch and 232, knitwear, five-pocket trousers, eyewear, and fragrances.
  • TOM FORD Fashion narrowed its adjusted earnings before interest and taxes loss from €19 million to €12 million in the first half of fiscal 2026, thanks to revenue growth, better fixed-cost absorption, and expense discipline. Management expects the segment to generate positive adjusted earnings before interest and taxes in the second half and to limit its full-year fiscal 2026 loss to a few million euros.
  • The group is targeting adjusted earnings before interest and taxes of approximately €195 million in fiscal 2026, and management described this level on September 3, 2026, as reasonable, albeit more challenging after consensus increased from approximately €190 million. It also reaffirmed the lower end of fiscal 2027 guidance at revenues of €2.2 billion and adjusted earnings before interest and taxes of €250 million.
  • Liquidity supports the group’s ability to fund its transformation and investment; it generated approximately €19.9 million of free cash flow in the first half of fiscal 2026, compared with a €23 million outflow in the corresponding period, and net cash increased to €60 million at the end of June 2026 from €52 million at the end of December 2025.
  • The group is investing in selective expansion and manufacturing; capital expenditures totaled €64 million in the first half of fiscal 2026, an increase of €10 million, and included the new footwear factory in Parma scheduled to begin operations by the end of 2026. Management also identified the opening of a Zegna store in Saint Moritz in December 2026, alongside TOM FORD Fashion’s expansion in the United States and the opening of its flagship store in Paris by the end of January 2027.
  • Buying & Selling Case

    ▲ Buying Case4 pts

    • +The Zegna brand demonstrates a combination of growth and profitability, with its segment generating €107 million of adjusted earnings before interest and taxes in the first half of fiscal 2026 and expanding its margin to 14.8%, while management expects a margin of approximately 15% for the full fiscal 2026.
    • +The mix improved toward higher-margin DTC, from 82% to 86% of branded revenues, alongside improvements in revenue per square meter and sell-through rates, providing operating leverage, particularly for the Zegna segment.
    • +TOM FORD Fashion’s recovery represents a potential source of improvement in group earnings, after its adjusted loss narrowed by €7 million in the first half of fiscal 2026, with management expecting it to return to an adjusted operating profit in the second half.
    • +The group shifted from a €23 million free cash flow outflow in the first half of fiscal 2025 to generating approximately €19.9 million in the first half of fiscal 2026, alongside a reduction in trade working capital to €420 million from €442 million and an increase in net cash.

    ▼ Selling Case6 pts

    • −Thom Browne’s difficulties represent the most prominent operational risk; the segment shifted from adjusted earnings before interest and taxes of €4 million to a loss of €8 million in the first half of fiscal 2026, and also experienced a clear slowdown in the third quarter of fiscal 2026 after benefiting in the first and second quarters from new store openings and the launch of an ASICS collaboration.
    • −Thom Browne’s transition from a wholesale-led model to a retail-focused culture is taking longer than management expected, with costs related to recruiting talent and investing in the team and retail functions. Management expects the segment’s adjusted earnings before interest and taxes to return to positive territory in the second half, but the fiscal 2026 target is only to approach breakeven, leaving room for execution risks.
    • −Wholesale will remain a drag on growth in fiscal 2026; management expects Zegna’s wholesale sales to contract by a low-double-digit percentage, TOM FORD Fashion to remain approximately stable, and Thom Browne to decline further. Thom Browne’s wholesale sales had fallen from approximately €129–130 million in fiscal 2024 to €77 million in fiscal 2025, and management expects an additional decline in fiscal 2026 equal in absolute value to approximately half of the previous year’s decrease.
    • −Net profit in the first half of fiscal 2026 declined to €28.4 million from €47.9 million, as net financial items and foreign exchange effects shifted from positive €6 million to negative €23 million. Although the prior-year comparison included a non-cash gain from remeasuring the Thom Browne option liability, the decline illustrates net profit’s sensitivity to items below operating profit.
    • −Results are exposed to currency fluctuations and weakness in certain luxury markets; foreign exchange movements reduced group revenue growth by three percentage points in the first half of fiscal 2026, and the impact on Thom Browne reached five percentage points due to its relative exposure to Korea and Japan. Management also noted on September 3, 2026, the volatility of the Chinese market and that weakness there had a greater impact on Thom Browne, while new taxes on overseas investments remained a factor it was monitoring in relation to Chinese demand.
    • −The fiscal 2026 profitability target carries a risk of being missed; adjusted earnings before interest and taxes consensus increased from approximately €190 million to €195 million, and management described the new level as reasonable but more challenging. Achieving it requires improvement from Thom Browne and TOM FORD Fashion in the second half, alongside continued strength at Zegna and reduced currency pressure.

    Valuation

    The average analyst price target is $13.57, within a range of $12.20 to $14.50, and the consensus recommendation is “Buy”; the average target is below the 52-week range high of $15.95, while the range low is $8.64. No price-to-earnings ratio is available in the data, so the stock’s valuation depends more heavily on the group’s ability to generate approximately €195 million of adjusted earnings before interest and taxes in fiscal 2026, weighed against the risks associated with Thom Browne’s transformation and the decline in first-half net profit.

    BuyAnalyst target: $13.57(+16.9%)

    Figures in the text are as of 2026-09-04; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

    FAQ

    What is driving ZGN’s earnings in fiscal 2026?

    The strongest driver is the Zegna segment, which generated €107 million of adjusted earnings before interest and taxes in the first half of fiscal 2026 at a margin of 14.8%. The increase in DTC’s share to 86% of branded revenues, compared with 82% in the corresponding period, helped improve the mix and operating leverage. Management also reported strong double-digit growth in Zegna’s DTC sales during July and August 2026, with solid performance from categories such as Triple Stitch and 232, knitwear, eyewear, and fragrances.

    Why did Ermenegildo Zegna’s net profit decline in the first half of fiscal 2026 despite higher operating profit?

    Net profit declined to €28.4 million from €47.9 million, despite adjusted earnings before interest and taxes increasing to approximately €74.5 million from €68.7 million. The corresponding period included €28 million of non-cash, non-taxable income from remeasuring the Thom Browne put option liability, which did not recur in the first half of fiscal 2026. As a result, total financial items and foreign exchange gains and losses shifted from positive €6 million to negative €23 million, while the effective tax rate was 39% compared with 30%.

    How significant is the Thom Browne problem within the ZGN group?

    Thom Browne recorded an adjusted earnings before interest and taxes loss of €8 million in the first half of fiscal 2026, compared with a profit of €4 million in the corresponding period. This reflects currency pressure, inventory developments and the debt provision, costs related to recruiting talent, and investment in transitioning the brand from a wholesale model to a retail-focused model. Management expects the segment’s adjusted profit to return to positive territory in the second half and to approach breakeven for the full fiscal 2026, supported by reduced currency pressure, improved open-to-buy management, and cost controls.

    Is TOM FORD Fashion’s performance at ZGN improving?

    TOM FORD Fashion narrowed its adjusted earnings before interest and taxes loss to €12 million in the first half of fiscal 2026, compared with a loss of €19 million in the corresponding period. Management attributed the improvement to revenue growth, better fixed-cost absorption, and continued expense discipline. It expects positive adjusted earnings before interest and taxes in the second half, while the full-year fiscal 2026 result remains negative by a few million euros.

    What is management’s guidance for ZGN’s earnings in fiscal 2026 and 2027?

    Management confirmed on September 3, 2026, that consensus of approximately €195 million in adjusted earnings before interest and taxes for fiscal 2026 is reasonable, although it has become more challenging after increasing by approximately €5 million. It expects an adjusted earnings before interest and taxes margin of approximately 15% for the Zegna segment, Thom Browne to approach breakeven, and TOM FORD Fashion’s annual loss to be limited to a few million euros. For fiscal 2027, management reaffirmed the lower end of guidance at revenues of €2.2 billion and adjusted earnings before interest and taxes of €250 million.

    What do Ermenegildo Zegna’s liquidity and investments look like?

    The group generated approximately €19.9 million of free cash flow in the first half of fiscal 2026, after a €23 million outflow in the corresponding period. Trade working capital declined to €420 million at the end of June 2026 from €442 million, and net cash increased to €60 million from €52 million at the end of December 2025. Capital expenditures totaled €64 million, an increase of €10 million, and included investment in the new footwear factory in Parma scheduled to begin operations by the end of 2026.