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Home
Stocks
Yum China Holdings, Inc.
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall70
Strong — clearly above market medianContrarianF 7/9Better than 70% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
79
15.6x▲17.8xTop tier
▸
Growth
42
8.8%▲7.1%Around median
▸
Quality
58
13.3%▲4.5%Around median
▸
Safety
78
1.0x▲2.6xTop tier
▸
Capital Return
66
2.27%▲2.12%Top tier
▸
Momentum
31
6.2%▲2.9%Bottom tier
▸
Sentiment
63
18▲3Around median
YUMC

YUMC Yum China Holdings, Inc.

Yum China Holdings, Inc. · NYSE
Market Closed
42.32
▲ ⁦+0.07%⁩ (+0.03)
Market Cap$14.8B
Beta0.08
52w Low52w High
40.1558.39
Last Week
⁦-5.70%⁩
Last Month
⁦-12.18%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦-0.94%⁩
Last Year
⁦-4.71%⁩
Fair Value
Current price$42
Analyst target · 26 analysts
$59
⁦+39%⁩
See it clearly undervalued
Range ⁦$59–$59⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$56
⁦+33%⁩
Sees it clearly undervalued
⁦7.9⁩% discount · ⁦1⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods broadly agree — estimate range ⁦$56–$59⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 26 analysts setting price target
$59.00
⁦+39.4%⁩
Current Price $42.32·Median $59.00
Low
$59.00
High
$59.00
Street summary

Stable Target Price Amid Broader Coverage

The consensus target price remained steady at 59, unchanged over the last day, 7 days, and 30 days, meaning there was neither an increase nor a reduction in the estimate. However, the number of analysts covered rose from 3 to 26, while the high, low, and median target prices all remained at 59; therefore, the data does not show any actual dispersion among estimates, but the broader coverage base makes the current reading more comprehensive.

As of 2026-09-11
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦0.0%⁩
Average rating
★ 4.23
Buy
Analyst coverage
⁦22 (+23)⁩
New coverage
Buy conviction
95%
High
Target dispersion
0%
Analyst ratings over time22 analysts rating
6
15
1
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months4.21 → 4.23
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-07-30
    Goldman Sachs
    Buy
  • = Reiterate2026-02-05
    Jefferies
    Buy· $63.64
  • = Reiterate2026-02-04
    Goldman Sachs
    Buy· $58.50
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    15.56x
    4.56x36.49x
    Cheap
  • Forward P/E
    13.77x
    3.79x30.29x
    Cheap
  • EV / EBITDA
    9.15x
    2.75x22.03x
    Cheap
  • FCF Yield
    8.2%
    -30.9%16.2%
    Strong
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    8.8%
    -13.8%31.9%
    Near median
  • EPS Growth YoY
    12.4%
    -156.9%135.6%
    Above average
  • Gross Margin
    17.2%
    12.0%66.5%
    Weak
  • ROIC
    13.3%
    -23.8%21.5%
    Strong
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    0.98x
    0.65x5.48x
    Low debt
  • Dividend Yield
    2.3%
    0.1%5.9%
    Moderate
  • Payout Ratio
    35.3%
    8.9%99.8%
    Moderate
  • Altman Z-Score
    —
    —
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-07-30 data

Company Overview

Yum China Holdings operates a restaurant network in China led by the KFC and Pizza Hut brands, generating revenue from company-owned restaurant sales and its franchise system. The company is expanding demand through formats linked to existing stores, such as KCOFFEE Cafe, KPRO, and Pizza Hut Burger Bar, alongside geographic expansion; it opened approximately 1,200 net new stores during the first half of fiscal 2026 and entered more than 200 new cities, while franchise stores represented 40% of net new openings and only 18% of Yum China's total stores.

In fiscal Q2 2026, revenue increased 13% year over year, and operating profit reached a second-quarter record of $348 million, up 7%, while net income was $244 million, up 6%, and diluted earnings per share were $0.70, up 14%. Restaurant margins were 16.1%, unchanged year over year, and the operating profit margin increased 20 basis points to 11.1%, marking the company's ninth consecutive quarter combining system sales growth, operating profit growth, and operating profit margin expansion.

At the brand level in fiscal Q2 2026, KFC system sales grew 7% and same-store sales increased 1%, with a restaurant margin of 17.1% after improving 20 basis points. Pizza Hut system sales grew 6% and same-store sales returned to 1% growth, but its restaurant margin declined 40 basis points due to a higher delivery mix, investment in value, and the launch of Burger Bar. EDGAR filings for fiscal 2025 show revenue of $11.8 billion and net income of $929 million, compared with trailing-twelve-month revenue of $12.1 billion and net income of $946 million in the available 2026 data.

What's Driving the Stock

  • Operating momentum improved in fiscal Q2 2026, as system sales growth accelerated to 6% from 4% in fiscal Q1 2026, and same-store sales increased 1%, supported by the fourteenth consecutive quarter of same-store transaction growth.
  • KCOFFEE Cafe expanded to more than 3,300 locations and generated a mid-single-digit percentage increase in parent-store sales; management is targeting sales of approximately RMB 2 billion in fiscal 2026 and 5,000 locations by the end of 2027.
  • KPRO surpassed 450 locations, and the company raised its fiscal 2026 year-end target from 600 to approximately 800 locations after the format added nearly 20% to parent-store sales, while more than 80% of its sales came from KFC members.
  • Pizza Hut Burger Bar reached more than 200 locations within six months and added double-digit growth to parent-store sales, and the company is targeting 500 to 600 locations by the end of 2026 and sales exceeding RMB 1 billion in fiscal 2026, equivalent to approximately 5% to 6% of Pizza Hut sales.
  • According to the July 30, 2026 call, the acquisition of the Pizza Hut brand in mainland China was scheduled to close in August 2026; the company expects eliminating the 3% license fee to contribute approximately 2.8 percentage points to the operating margin of Pizza Hut restaurants and approximately 60 basis points to Yum China overall.
  • Management maintained its fiscal 2026 targets of mid- to high-single-digit system sales growth, high-single-digit operating profit growth, and double-digit earnings-per-share growth, while reaching 20,000 stores by the end of 2026.

Buying & Selling Case

▲ Buying Case4 pts

  • +The company combines sales growth with improved profitability; in fiscal Q2 2026, it delivered 6% system sales growth and 7% operating profit growth, with the operating profit margin expanding to 11.1% despite delivery-cost pressure.
  • +The store-within-a-store formats provide a relatively low-investment growth path; capital expenditure for both KCOFFEE Cafe and KPRO declined by approximately half compared with the early formats in 2025, while increasing parent-store sales by a mid-single-digit percentage and nearly 20%, respectively.
  • +Ownership of the Pizza Hut brand in mainland China, if the transaction closed according to the plan announced on July 30, 2026, provides fee savings that support margins and allow additional stores to achieve the targeted payback period of two to three years; management therefore raised its forecast for net Pizza Hut openings to more than 800 stores annually in 2027 and 2028, from more than 600.
  • +Cash returns to shareholders support the investment case, as the company targeted returning $1.5 billion during fiscal 2026 and returned $718 million in the first half, including $515 million in share repurchases and $203 million in cash dividends.

▼ Selling Case6 pts

Valuation

The average analyst target is $59, which is also the highest and lowest available target, with a consensus rating of “Buy”; this target is slightly above the 52-week range high of $58.39, while the range low is $40.15. No price-to-earnings ratio is available in the data, so the available valuation framework relies on a single target with no dispersion among analysts, balancing earnings growth and expected Pizza Hut savings against delivery pressures and the transaction's financing through an approximately $1.2 billion bridge loan.

BuyAnalyst target: $59(+39.4%)

Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-29; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

FAQ

What drove YUMC's results in fiscal Q2 2026?

Yum China's revenue increased 13%, system sales grew 6%, and operating profit reached $348 million in fiscal Q2 2026. Net income increased 6% to $244 million, while diluted earnings per share rose 14% to $0.70. This came with 1% same-store sales growth and the fourteenth consecutive quarter of same-store transaction growth.

Why is Yum China's acquisition of the Pizza Hut brand in mainland China important?

According to the July 30, 2026 call, the transaction was scheduled to close in August 2026 after Yum China had operated the brand in the market for 36 years. The company expects to save the 3% license fee, adding 2.8 percentage points to the operating margin of Pizza Hut restaurants after value-added tax and approximately 60 basis points to Yum China's overall margin. It also expects the transaction to be slightly accretive to diluted earnings per share in fiscal 2026, then accretive by a mid-single-digit percentage in 2027 and 2028.

How do KCOFFEE Cafe and KPRO contribute to KFC's growth?

KCOFFEE Cafe had more than 3,300 locations as of July 30, 2026, and the format was adding a mid-single-digit percentage to parent-store sales. Management is targeting sales of approximately RMB 2 billion in fiscal 2026 and 5,000 locations by the end of 2027. KPRO surpassed 450 locations and added nearly 20% to parent-store sales, and the company raised its fiscal 2026 year-end target to approximately 800 locations.

Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

  • −Transaction growth partly depends on smaller orders and stronger value for consumers; in fiscal Q2 2026, KFC's average ticket declined 3% to RMB 36, and Pizza Hut's average ticket declined 11% to RMB 68, meaning that maintaining sales growth requires continued increases in transaction volumes.
  • −Delivery growth increased cost pressure, as the delivery sales mix rose from 45% to 54% in fiscal Q2 2026, and rider costs had a 140-basis-point impact on margin. Cost of sales also increased 50 basis points to 31.5%, labor costs increased 40 basis points to 27.6%, and Pizza Hut's restaurant margin declined 40 basis points.
  • −The pace of growth faces tougher comparisons in the second half of fiscal 2026 following the higher delivery-sales base since June 2025; management therefore targeted maintaining positive same-store sales growth in fiscal Q3 2026 rather than providing a specific higher growth rate.
  • −Management expected the fiscal Q3 2026 restaurant margin to be flat or only slightly positive and the operating profit margin to remain near its fiscal Q3 2025 level. This includes the absence of an approximately 20-basis-point positive impact from exceptional government subsidies recorded in fiscal Q3 2025 that are not expected to recur.
  • −Financing the Pizza Hut transaction adds balance-sheet and refinancing risks, as the company planned on July 30, 2026 to borrow an external bridge loan equivalent to approximately $1.2 billion for up to 12 months, while long-term financing options, including syndicated loans, bonds, and convertible bonds, remained under consideration.
  • −Insiders recorded six sales and no purchases during the three months ending with the latest transaction on August 18, 2026, for net sales of $1.8 million. This is a weak trading signal on its own because insider sales may be prearranged, and the context does not indicate the motivations behind these transactions.
Did Pizza Hut's performance improve in fiscal Q2 2026?

Pizza Hut system sales grew 6%, and same-store sales returned to 1% growth in fiscal Q2 2026. Same-store transactions increased 13%, but this was offset by an 11% decline in the average ticket to RMB 68. The restaurant margin declined 40 basis points due to a higher delivery mix, enhanced value, and the costs of launching Pizza Hut Burger Bar, despite a 60-basis-point expansion in the operating margin due to lower closure and impairment expenses.

What are the main operating risks facing YUMC in fiscal 2026?

The delivery sales mix increased from 45% to 54% in fiscal Q2 2026, and higher rider costs reduced margin by 140 basis points. The company also faces tougher comparisons in the second half of fiscal 2026 because of the higher delivery base since June 2025, with the fiscal Q3 operating margin expected to be near its year-ago level. The planned approximately $1.2 billion bridge loan to finance the Pizza Hut transaction also adds interest-rate and refinancing exposure until the long-term financing structure is determined.

What are Yum China's targets for the remainder of fiscal 2026?

Management is targeting a same-store sales index between 100 and 102 and mid- to high-single-digit system sales growth during fiscal 2026. It is also targeting high-single-digit operating profit growth and double-digit earnings-per-share growth, with slight improvement in restaurant and operating profit margins. The company remains on track to reach 20,000 stores and return $1.5 billion to shareholders by the end of fiscal 2026.