| Factor | Score | Distribution | Value | Avg | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Valuation | 73 | 29.5x | 17.8x | Top tier | |
Growth | 68 | 330.2% | 7.1% | Top tier | |
Quality | 41 | 9.5% | 4.5% | Around median | |
Safety | 60 | 1.0x | 2.6x | Around median | |
Capital Return | — | — | 2.12% | N/A | |
Momentum | 97 | 59.5% | 2.9% | Top tier | |
Sentiment | 84 | 3 | 3 | Top tier |
Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.
Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.
YPF Sociedad Anónima is an integrated energy company whose strategy focuses on producing unconventional oil and gas from Vaca Muerta, then transporting and refining crude oil, marketing fuels domestically, and exporting surpluses. The company is reshaping its portfolio around more profitable shale oil by selling conventional assets, while its refining and distribution businesses provide an additional channel for generating revenue and operating margins. In the second quarter of fiscal year 2026, shale oil accounted for 80% of total oil production, with the estimated share rising to about 95% after excluding the conventional assets currently being sold.
Revenue in the second quarter of fiscal year 2026 reached approximately $6.6 billion, up 33% from the previous quarter and 42% year over year. Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization reached a record $2.8 billion, up 76% sequentially and equivalent to 2.5 times the previous year's level, while the margin reached 43%, its highest in two decades. Operating profit was $1.8 billion and net income was $1.2 billion, while the business generated free cash flow of $824 million despite capital expenditure exceeding $1.3 billion.
The results were supported by both production and refining: shale oil production reached 213 thousand barrels per day, up 47% year over year, while refinery throughput reached a record 351 thousand barrels per day. The adjusted earnings margin for transportation, refining, and marketing was approximately $30 per barrel, with record gasoline and middle distillate production and exports of approximately 100 thousand cubic meters of fuel. Conversely, natural gas production declined 6% year over year to 37.3 million cubic meters per day due to exits from conventional fields, despite growth in shale gas.
The analyst consensus is Buy, with an average target of $56.67 and a target range of $55 to $60; the average is close to the top of the 52-week range of $57.49, compared with a low of $22.82. No published price-to-earnings ratio is available in the provided data, so the stock's valuation depends more heavily on the sustainability of the 43% adjusted earnings margin, achieving fiscal year 2026 guidance of approximately $8 billion, and continuing to reduce leverage. The Buy consensus must be weighed against the guidance's dependence on an annual average Brent price of approximately $82 and the execution risks of capital-intensive projects such as Loma La Lata Oil, Argentina LNG, and VMOS.
Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-29; the live price is shown at the top of the page.
Revenue reached approximately $6.6 billion, up 42% year over year, while adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization reached $2.8 billion at a 43% margin. The improvement came from higher international prices, record shale oil production of 213 thousand barrels per day, and refinery throughput of 351 thousand barrels per day. This resulted in operating profit of $1.8 billion, net income of $1.2 billion, and free cash flow of $824 million.
Shale oil represented 80% of total oil production in the second quarter of fiscal year 2026, and the share could reach approximately 95% after excluding the conventional assets currently being sold. Its production increased 47% year over year to 213 thousand barrels per day, while lifting costs in shale oil hubs were approximately $4 per barrel of oil equivalent. YPF is targeting an average of 215 thousand barrels per day in fiscal year 2026 and an exit rate of approximately 250 thousand barrels per day by year-end.
Management raised adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization guidance from approximately $6 billion to around $8 billion. The new guidance is based on an assumed annual average Brent price of approximately $82 per barrel, operating efficiency, and strong refined-product margins. It also raised the capital expenditure range to $5.8–6.2 billion, while expecting free cash flow of approximately $2 billion and net leverage approaching 1 time by the end of fiscal year 2026.
Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.
In May 2026, YPF submitted a RIGI application for the wholly owned project, which covers five concessions and an inventory of more than 1150 wells. Investments are estimated at approximately $25 billion over 15 years, targeting a production plateau of approximately 240 thousand barrels per day after 2032, allocated for export through VMOS. The company estimates annual revenue of approximately $7 billion at an average Brent price of $70, but the approval could be structured through separate special-purpose companies.
YPF ended June 2026 with liquidity of approximately $2.5 billion, compared with approximately $1.7 billion at the end of March 2026, while net leverage declined to 1.1 times. Free cash flow in the second quarter of fiscal year 2026 reached approximately $824 million after funding capital expenditure exceeding $1.3 billion and paying $188 million for Equinor assets. However, the plan includes capital expenditure of up to $6.2 billion in fiscal year 2026 and capital-intensive long-term projects, making continued cash generation and debt control essential factors.
The first risk is the guidance's sensitivity to the Brent price, as it assumes an annual average of approximately $82 per barrel despite the high volatility noted by management. The second is the execution of a major expansion that includes increasing the rig count, completing VMOS, and securing the approvals and financing required for Loma La Lata Oil and Argentina LNG. Refinery maintenance in the second half of fiscal year 2026 will also normalize processing levels, while gas production declined 6% year over year and domestic demand remained a constraint on its growth.
