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Home
Stocks
Exxon Mobil Corporation
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall85
Excellent — top fifth of the marketSuper StockF 5/9Better than 85% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
70
20.7x▼18.0xTop tier
▸
Growth
40
8.6%▲7.1%Around median
▸
Quality
53
8.8%▲4.5%Around median
▸
Safety
87
0.5x▲2.6xTop tier
▸
Capital Return
43
2.57%▲2.11%Around median
▸
Momentum
79
40.1%▲3.0%Top tier
▸
Sentiment
72
15▲3Top tier
XOM

XOM Exxon Mobil Corporation

Exxon Mobil Corporation · NYSE
Market Closed
160.66
▲ ⁦+0.75%⁩ (+1.19)
Market Cap$660.9B
Beta0.16
52w Low52w High
108.35176.41
Last Week
⁦-0.18%⁩
Last Month
⁦+4.98%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦+5.87%⁩
Last Year
⁦+47.08%⁩
Fair Value
Current price$161
Analyst target · 6 analysts
$177
⁦+10%⁩
See it undervalued
Range ⁦$153–$185⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$247
⁦+54%⁩
Sees it clearly undervalued
⁦7.9⁩% discount · ⁦7⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods broadly agree — estimate range ⁦$177–$247⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 6 analysts setting price target
$173.42
⁦+7.9%⁩
Current Price $160.66·Median $177.00
Low
$153.00
High
$185.00
Current price
$160.66
Average target
$173.42
Street summary

Slight Rise in Consensus Amid Continued Divergence

The consensus price target rose to 173.42 from 171.17 over 7 days, and to 173.42 from 171.08 over 30 days, representing increases of 1.31% and 1.37%, respectively. The number of analysts remained unchanged at 6, indicating that the improvement reflects upward revisions to existing estimates rather than broader coverage. The current range is between 153 and 185, versus a current price of 160.66, while the median stands at 177; this reflects an overall positive bias with a notable divergence among estimates continuing.

As of 2026-09-08
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦+1.4%⁩
Average rating
★ 3.52
Buy
Analyst coverage
25
Buy conviction
40%
Mixed
Rating activity · 30d
0↑ · 0↓
Target dispersion
20%
Analyst ratings over time25 analysts rating
3
7
15
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months3.70 → 3.52
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-09-08
    UBS
    Buy
  • = Reiterate2026-09-03
    Piper Sandler
    Neutral
  • = Reiterate2026-08-19
    Morgan Stanley
    Overweight
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    20.68x
    3.60x28.79x
    Near median
  • Forward P/E
    13.85x
    3.39x27.13x
    Cheap
  • EV / EBITDA
    9.97x
    2.16x17.25x
    Near median
  • FCF Yield
    6.5%
    -20.5%15.8%
    Strong
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    8.6%
    -19.7%63.1%
    Near median
  • EPS Growth YoY
    10.4%
    -141.8%249.3%
    Near median
  • Gross Margin
    24.7%
    7.8%72.3%
    Below average
  • ROIC
    8.8%
    -12.7%20.6%
    Above average
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    0.54x
    0.40x3.20x
    Low debt
  • Dividend Yield
    2.6%
    0.4%10.0%
    Low
  • Payout Ratio
    53.2%
    11.9%109.0%
    Moderate
  • Altman Z-Score
    —
    —
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-07-31 data

Company Overview

Exxon Mobil Corporation operates across an integrated energy value chain that includes upstream oil and gas production, fuel refining and marketing within Energy Products, chemical manufacturing, and the production of base stocks, lubricants, and specialty products. The company benefits from linking production with refineries, trading, and supply chains, allowing it to redirect feedstocks and products when markets are disrupted; Energy Products' contribution to business-line earnings increased from approximately 9% to approximately 23% during the five years ended in Q2 FY2026. Key growth drivers include Guyana assets, Permian Basin production, the global refining portfolio, and products such as Mobil 1 and Proxxima.

In Q2 FY2026, ExxonMobil reported revenue of $116.0 billion, net income of $14.5 billion, and earnings per share of $3.48, compared with the latest other available quarterly period, which had revenue of $81.5 billion, net income of $7.1 billion, and earnings per share of $1.64. Cash flow from operations reached $23.6 billion, free cash flow exceeded $17 billion, net debt declined by more than $7 billion, while cash capital expenditures were approximately $7 billion and shareholder returns exceeded $9 billion through dividends and share repurchases.

The strength of Q2 FY2026 came from several businesses despite the temporary loss of approximately 10% of upstream production due to the Middle East conflict. Outside the region, the company achieved its highest upstream production volumes in more than two decades, the Permian exceeded 1.8 million oil-equivalent barrels per day, and total Guyana production reached approximately 900 thousand barrels per day. Chemical product margins also increased by approximately 180% from Q1 FY2026, Specialty Products achieved its best base-stock margins and its highest quarterly and adjusted first-half earnings, while refineries recorded second-quarter diesel production at record levels.

What's Driving the Stock

  • Permian Basin production reached a record level exceeding 1.8 million oil-equivalent barrels per day in Q2 FY2026, after 83 four-mile horizontal wells were drilled during the first half; ExxonMobil also signed 20-year integrated service agreements with Targa Resources in August 2026 for gathering, processing, and transportation in the Delaware and Midland basins.
  • Guyana produced a total of approximately 900 thousand barrels per day in Q2 FY2026, and the partnership fully recovered its $55 billion in investments and operating costs approximately two years earlier than expected, even after excluding the impact of prices. Management expects free cash flow from Guyana in 2030 to be double its 2025 level, with the fifth FPSO Errea Wittu heading to Guyana in June 2026 and targeting startup by the end of 2026.
  • The refining business benefited from global product shortages; management indicated that approximately 3 million barrels per day of refining capacity had been removed due to the closure of the strait, alongside China's suspension of exports and the loss of approximately 1 million barrels per day of Russian capacity. Reliability at U.S. Gulf Coast refineries exceeded 95% in Q2 FY2026, while global jet fuel and diesel production increased 15% during the three years preceding the call.
  • The company increased cumulative structural cost savings since 2019 to $16.3 billion in Q2 FY2026, with a target of reaching $20 billion by 2030. Advanced modeling, fleet reallocation, product reformulation, and alternative supply sources helped avoid approximately $750 million in annual disruption costs.
  • Specialty Products supports earnings diversification; it achieved record earnings in Q2 FY2026 and the first half, following investments including the Resid Upgrade project in Singapore. In Proxxima, a 35-thousand-ton capacity expansion entered service, and the company made the final investment decision on the next expansion phase for the blending plant during 2026.
  • News on August 24, 2026 showed preliminary interest from ExxonMobil in U.S. chemical assets that Shell is considering selling for up to $8 billion. This interest does not confirm the completion of a transaction, but it places the possibility of expanding the chemicals portfolio among the factors monitored by the market.

Buying & Selling Case

▲ Buying Case4 pts

  • +Q2 FY2026 results combine net income of $14.5 billion, cash flow from operations of $23.6 billion, and free cash flow exceeding $17 billion, despite the temporary loss of approximately 10% of upstream production, highlighting the integrated portfolio's ability to absorb disruptions.
  • +The Permian provides a large-scale growth path at production exceeding 1.8 million oil-equivalent barrels per day, supported by more than 40 technologies under development and leadership in long-lateral horizontal wells; since 2020, the company has had 1,200 producing wells with laterals of three miles or more, compared with approximately 400 for the nearest competitor, according to management.
  • +Guyana has entered a stronger cash-generation phase after recovering $55 billion in investments and costs, with reliability exceeding 98% and production approximately 100 thousand barrels per day above the basis used for investment decisions. The Longtail appraisal and the potential development of a ninth FPSO add further opportunities, while these steps remain subject to evaluation or a final investment decision.
  • +Cost reductions enhance earnings quality across cycles; structural savings have reached $16.3 billion since 2019, while estimated annual cash operating expenses in 2026 remained close to the 2019 level despite business growth and inflation.

▼ Selling Case

Valuation

The analyst consensus is Neutral, with an average price target of $171.17 and a relatively wide range between $153 and $184. The average target is below the 52-week range high of $176.41, while the highest target exceeds that peak and the lowest target remains above the low of $108.35; this dispersion reflects a balance between strong cash flows and growth in Guyana and the Permian versus the role of cyclical margins and geopolitical and operational risks.

HoldAnalyst target: $171.17(+6.5%)

Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-26; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

FAQ

What drove ExxonMobil's results in Q2 FY2026?

The company reported revenue of $116.0 billion, net income of $14.5 billion, and earnings per share of $3.48 in Q2 FY2026. Cash flow from operations reached $23.6 billion, while free cash flow exceeded $17 billion. The results were supported by record upstream volumes outside the Middle East, record diesel production, an approximately 180% increase in chemical product margins from Q1 FY2026, and record Specialty Products earnings.

Why is Guyana important to XOM stock?

Total Guyana production reached approximately 900 thousand barrels per day in Q2 FY2026, with FPSO reliability exceeding 98%. The partnership recovered its $55 billion in investments and operating costs approximately two years earlier than expected, even without the impact of higher prices. Management expects free cash flow in 2030 to reach double the 2025 level, but on August 24, 2026 it faced a temporary shutdown at one site following a fire whose duration of impact had not been determined.

What is ExxonMobil's growth plan for the Permian Basin?

The Permian achieved record production exceeding 1.8 million oil-equivalent barrels per day in Q2 FY2026. The company drilled 83 four-mile horizontal wells during the first half, benefiting from its remote operations center in Houston, real-time data, and artificial intelligence and machine-learning technologies. In August 2026, Targa Resources and ExxonMobil entered into 20-year service agreements covering gathering, processing, and transportation in the Delaware and Midland basins, with three new processing plants and a 70-mile pipeline included in Targa's expansion.

Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

6 pts
  • −The Middle East conflict in Q2 FY2026 caused the temporary loss of approximately 10% of upstream production, and management indicated that the volatility of attacks and disruptions could prolong restrictions on shipping even after conditions improve. The company also discussed repairs to two LNG units in Qatar, illustrating the exposure of operations and supply chains to geopolitical events whose timing cannot be determined.
  • −The fire at a Guyana production site on August 24, 2026 represents a direct operational risk to one of the most important growth drivers, as ExxonMobil temporarily suspended production and the available information did not specify the extent of the damage or the duration of the shutdown. This risk is especially significant because Guyana produced approximately 900 thousand barrels per day in Q2 FY2026 and the company aims to expand its FPSO fleet there.
  • −In Q2 FY2026, the company faced logistical constraints, supply-chain pressures, and shortages of essential products among customers, despite successfully avoiding approximately $750 million in annual disruption costs. These constraints could still increase operating costs or limit production if they exceed the company's ability to reallocate its fleet and change supply sources.
  • −Elevated refining earnings face regulatory risk in Europe, where the call discussed the possibility of imposing windfall-profit taxes, and the company has approximately 850 thousand barrels per day of refining capacity across the United Kingdom and Europe, according to the question posed to management. Management explained that a previous round of these taxes prompted it to cancel investments planned for Europe, revealing the potential for lower returns or investment if the discussions become actual policy.
  • −Energy Products, Chemical Products, and Specialty Products results benefit from unusual supply constraints; chemical product margins increased by approximately 180% from Q1 FY2026, while management described refining and base-stock margins as elevated. The return of disrupted refining capacity or exports could reduce these cyclical margins even if operational efficiency continues to improve.
  • −The valuation carries limited margin-of-safety risk between the consensus anchor and the year's highs; the average analyst target of $171.17 is below the 52-week range high of $176.41, while targets range from $153 to $184 and the consensus remains Neutral. This divergence means value estimates depend materially on the sustainability of refining and chemical margins and on the successful execution of growth in Guyana and the Permian.
How does ExxonMobil benefit from a tight refining market?

Management estimated that the closure of the strait removed approximately 3 million barrels per day of refining capacity, alongside the suspension of China's exports and the loss of approximately 1 million barrels per day of Russian capacity. U.S. Gulf Coast refineries operated at reliability exceeding 95% in Q2 FY2026 and recorded record diesel production. The company's global jet fuel and diesel production also increased 15% during the three years preceding the call, but the return of disrupted capacity could pressure elevated margins.

What role do cost reductions play in the XOM investment thesis?

Cumulative structural cost savings reached $16.3 billion from 2019 through Q2 FY2026, and the company targets $20 billion by 2030. Management said estimated annual cash operating expenses in 2026 were approximately equal to the 2019 level despite business expansion and inflation. Scheduled maintenance operations also achieved a 30% improvement in cost and a 60% improvement in duration compared with the previous cycle, while supply-chain optimization tools helped avoid approximately $750 million in annual disruption costs.

What are the key risks that XOM followers should monitor?

Risks include the temporary loss of approximately 10% of upstream production during Q2 FY2026 due to the Middle East conflict, alongside shipping and supply-chain constraints. In Guyana, the August 24, 2026 fire caused a temporary production suspension at a site whose damage and shutdown duration had not been determined. Other risks include potential European taxes on windfall refining profits and the possibility of margin declines if disrupted refining capacity and exports return to the market.