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Stocks
W. P. Carey Inc.
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall41
Weak — below market medianMomentum TrapF 5/9Better than 41% of Market stocks, per EL7's modelUnsustainable dividend (payout > 100%)
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
35
23.6x▼17.8xBottom tier
▸
Growth
53
9.0%▲7.1%Around median
▸
Quality
41
2.1%▼4.5%Around median
▸
Safety
41
7.0x▼2.6xAround median
▸
Capital Return
44
5.35%▲2.12%Around median
▸
Momentum
55
9.1%▲2.9%Around median
▸
Sentiment
76
2▼3Top tier
WPC

WPC W. P. Carey Inc.

W. P. Carey Inc. · NYSE
Market Closed
69.12
▼ ⁦-0.63%⁩ (-0.43)
Market Cap$15.8B
Beta0.78
52w Low52w High
63.0877.22
Last Week
⁦-2.07%⁩
Last Month
⁦-3.75%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦-6.86%⁩
Last Year
⁦+4.84%⁩
Fair Value
Current price$69
Analyst target · 1 analysts
$79
⁦+14%⁩
See it undervalued
Range ⁦$73–$88⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$47
⁦-32%⁩
Sees it clearly overvalued
⁦7.9⁩% discount · ⁦2⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods disagree — estimate range ⁦$47–$79⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 1 analysts setting price target
$80.00
⁦+15.7%⁩
Current Price $69.12·Median $78.50
Low
$73.00
High
$88.00
Current price
$69.12
Average target
$80.00
Street summary

W. P. Carey (WPC) Price Target Analysis

Bullish tilt

WPC stock has seen a slight improvement in analyst expectations over the past thirty days, with the average price target rising by 2% to reach $80 compared to $78.43 last July. This increase reflects cautious optimism supported by an upgrade of the stock's rating by BNP Paribas to "Outperform," while other institutions such as Scotiabank and UBS have maintained neutral ratings, indicating a relative stability in the outlook despite limited divergence in opinions.

As of 2026-08-20
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦-0.3%⁩
Average rating
★ 3.50
Buy
Analyst coverage
14
Buy conviction
43%
Mixed
Target dispersion
22%
Analyst ratings over time14 analysts rating
3
3
7
1
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months3.14 → 3.50
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-08-13
    Scotiabank
    Sector Perform
  • = Reiterate2026-07-29
    UBS
    Neutral
  • ⬆ Upgrade2026-07-29
    BNP Paribas
    NeutralOutperform
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    23.59x
    5.03x40.26x
    Cheap
  • Forward P/E
    24.07x
    5.89x47.13x
    Cheap
  • EV / EBITDA
    19.83x
    3.68x29.40x
    Above average
  • FCF Yield
    6.9%
    -23.1%16.7%
    Strong
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    9.0%
    -14.0%37.7%
    Near median
  • EPS Growth YoY
    92.8%
    -121.8%181.8%
    Strong
  • Gross Margin
    9.4%
    -5.0%81.8%
    Below average
  • ROIC
    2.1%
    -4.2%9.5%
    Near median
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    7.05x
    1.55x12.39x
    Near median
  • Dividend Yield
    5.4%
    0.6%15.6%
    Moderate
  • Payout Ratio
    124.8%
    31.2%370.0%
    Moderate
  • Altman Z-Score
    —
    —
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-07-29 data

Company Overview

W. P. Carey is a real estate investment company focused on net lease properties, funding its growth through property acquisitions, sale-leaseback transactions, build-to-suit projects, and expansions. Revenue primarily depends on long-term leases with contractual rent increases that are linked to inflation or predetermined; in Q2 FY2026, CPI-linked leases represented 49% of same-store leases, while fixed increases represented 48%. The vast majority of the quarter's investments were in warehouse and industrial properties, while retail transactions accounted for approximately 24% of investment volume since the beginning of FY2026.

In Q2 FY2026, revenue reached $461.1 million and net income was $185.4 million, equivalent to a calculated net income margin of approximately 40.2%. AFFO per share was $1.34, up 4.7% year over year, driven primarily by cumulative investments exceeding $3 billion since Q1 FY2025, along with rent growth, limited collection disruption, and a nonrecurring tax benefit. Based on the latest trailing-twelve-month EDGAR data, the company recorded revenue of $1.8 billion, net income of $651 million, and earnings per share of approximately $2.87.

The company ended Q2 FY2026 with occupancy of 98.5%, up 40 basis points from the previous quarter, and contractual same-store rent growth of 2.6%. It also generated $11.2 million in other lease-related revenue during the quarter and $21.7 million during the first half, in addition to $4.2 million in non-operating income, including $2.9 million as a quarterly distribution from its Lineage stake. In contrast, comprehensive same-store rent growth was only 0.2%, primarily affected by a comparison that included a rent recovery in the prior period, the non-collection of Hellweg's June rent, vacancies, and re-leasing activity.

What's Driving the Stock

  • W. P. Carey raised its FY2026 AFFO per share guidance range to $5.19–$5.27, increasing the midpoint by $0.02, which indicates year-over-year growth of 5.2% at the midpoint; the increase was driven by higher rental revenue, strong net investment activity, the beginning of inflation flowing through to leases, and lower estimates for rent losses, property expenses, and taxes.
  • The company completed more than $700 million of investments in Q2 FY2026, bringing year-to-date volume to $1.3 billion at a weighted-average initial cash capitalization rate of 7.4%. Including rent increases and an average new lease term of 18 years, the average yield exceeds 9%, leading management to raise its annual investment volume guidance to $1.7–$2.1 billion from $1.5–$2.0 billion previously.
  • The $400 million sale-leaseback transaction with GardenCore was the quarter's largest investment and included 43 manufacturing, packaging, and outdoor storage facilities across 24 states under a 20-year triple-net master lease with fixed rent increases. GardenCore became the company's fourth-largest tenant, making the transaction's performance influential to rent growth and portfolio quality.
  • Inflation supports rent growth through contractual provisions: CPI-linked increases averaged 2.7% during the quarter, while fixed increases averaged 2.5%. Management raised its FY2026 contractual same-store rent growth forecast to 2.6% and believes it could trend toward the mid-to-high 2% range, and possibly approach 3%, during FY2027.
  • Capital markets transactions provided substantial capacity to execute the investment pipeline; the company sold approximately $900 million of forward equity and issued approximately $1.5 billion of bonds since the beginning of FY2026. At quarter-end, liquidity was approximately $2.7 billion, $691 million of net proceeds from forward equity remained available for settlement, and the $2 billion credit facility was largely undrawn.
  • The Carey Tenant Solutions initiative includes ten projects under development that will add approximately $300 million to investment volume over 18 months, including $133 million targeted for delivery in the second half of FY2026. The initiative combines build-to-suit projects and expansions, opportunities that management described as high quality because they arise from existing tenant relationships.

Buying & Selling Case

▲ Buying Case4 pts

  • +The long-term lease model combines cash-flow visibility with rent growth; the average new lease term was 18 years, and inflation-linked or fixed increases covered 97% of same-store leases in Q2 FY2026.
  • +Prefunding gives the company room to continue investing without a near-term need to access capital markets; liquidity was $2.7 billion, net debt to adjusted EBITDA declined to 5.5 times before the effect of unsettled forward equity, at the low end of the target range, and there were no remaining debt maturities during FY2026.
  • +Management demonstrated greater confidence in earnings and investment activity by raising both AFFO per share and investment volume guidance for FY2026, while expecting to land in the upper half of the $1.7–$2.1 billion investment range if Q4 FY2026 activity is consistent with previous years.
  • +The company increased its quarterly dividend in June 2026 by 4.4% year over year to $0.94 per share, with a payout ratio slightly above 70%. Dividend sustainability is supported by AFFO growth, 98.5% occupancy, and approximately $300 million of annual retained cash flow.

▼ Selling Case6 pts

Valuation

The analyst consensus on WPC is "Neutral," with an average price target of $80, within a wide range of $73 to $88. The average target and the high end are above the 52-week range peak of $77.22, while the lowest target falls within the 52-week range of $63.08–$77.22, reflecting meaningful divergence in assessments of AFFO growth versus tenant and refinancing risks. The available data do not provide a usable price-to-earnings ratio, so the available valuation is based on the target range, the 52-week range, and the Neutral consensus rather than a specific earnings multiple.

HoldAnalyst target: $80(+15.7%)

Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-29; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

FAQ

What is driving W. P. Carey's growth in FY2026?

The largest driver is investment, as the company completed $1.3 billion since the beginning of FY2026 at a weighted-average initial cash capitalization rate of 7.4%. Management expects investment volume to reach $1.7–$2.1 billion during the year and the average yield on new transactions to exceed 9% after including rent increases. Growth is also supported by contractual rent growth of 2.6% and the beginning of inflation flowing through to CPI-linked leases.

How important is the GardenCore transaction to WPC's results?

The GardenCore transaction was valued at approximately $400 million and was the largest investment in Q2 FY2026. The transaction includes 43 manufacturing, packaging, and outdoor storage facilities across 24 states, leased under a 20-year triple-net master lease with fixed increases. After the transaction was completed, GardenCore became W. P. Carey's fourth-largest tenant, giving the transaction meaningful weight within the portfolio.

Does Hellweg's distress pose a significant risk to WPC's earnings?

The company reduced its exposure to Hellweg from 35 stores to 16 over two years, and the tenant now represents only 0.9% of annualized base rent and is no longer among the 20 largest tenants. Hellweg did not pay its June 2026 rent of approximately $1.2 million, but it paid July rent in full, and the company assumes a net loss of approximately $3 million in FY2026 after benefiting from bank guarantees. Alternative leases are available for activation for half of the remaining stores, while management is targeting leases or sales for the remaining assets by the end of 2026.

Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

  • −Hellweg's credit distress remains a direct risk to collections and asset redeployment; the tenant failed to pay approximately $1.2 million for June 2026, despite paying July rent in full, and guidance assumes no additional rent will be received from it for the remainder of the year. The company estimates a net Hellweg loss of approximately $3 million in FY2026 after bank guarantees covering three months, and 16 stores remain exposed to repossession, re-leasing, or sale.
  • −Comprehensive same-store rent growth was only 0.2% in Q2 FY2026, compared with contractual growth of 2.6%. Management expects comprehensive growth of between 1% and 1.5% for the full year due to the timing of re-leasing and dispositions and rent losses, demonstrating that contractual increases do not fully translate into realized growth when vacancies or credit disruptions occur.
  • −The company expects other lease-related revenue to decline in the second half of FY2026 after recording $21.7 million in the first half, while full-year guidance remains in the low-to-mid $30 million range. Q2 FY2026 also benefited from a nonrecurring tax benefit exceeding $1 million, so not all AFFO support recorded in the first half will recur.
  • −Refinancing debt at higher rates will place gradual pressure on growth; the company issued $350 million of ten-year U.S. bonds with a 5.2% coupon, compared with an average interest rate on total debt of 3.2% in Q2 FY2026. Management expects the average cost of debt to rise marginally in the second half, while €500 million of euro bonds mature in April 2027.
  • −Competition in the U.S. net lease market has increased with the entry of large asset managers and non-traded funds, while additional U.S. companies have also emerged in Europe. This liquidity could pressure capitalization rates, while Jason Fox indicated that higher Treasury yields could push capitalization rates upward, creating two-sided sensitivity among purchase prices, the cost of capital, and exit values.
  • −The company recorded impairment charges related to a student housing property in the United Kingdom and certain Hellweg assets because indications of selling prices were below carrying values. Although management does not expect an impact on AFFO and sees the potential to reinvest the proceeds at a better yield, these charges reveal asset-value risks when disposing of non-core or distressed properties.
What is the status of W. P. Carey's balance sheet and debt maturities?

The company's liquidity was approximately $2.7 billion at the end of Q2 FY2026 and included a $2 billion credit facility that was largely undrawn. It also had 9.9 million unsettled forward shares, representing expected net proceeds of $691 million. After issuing $350 million of bonds with a 5.2% coupon in July 2026 to address the October maturity, there were no remaining maturities during FY2026, and the next maturity became €500 million of euro bonds in April 2027.

How does WPC benefit from inflation?

49% of same-store leases are linked to the CPI, and their average increase was 2.7% in Q2 FY2026. Fixed increases represent 48% of leases, with an average of 2.5%, while the average fixed increase in new FY2026 investments was approximately 2.6%. Management expects the impact to flow through more substantially during the second half of FY2026, followed by contractual growth trending toward the mid-to-high 2% range and possibly close to 3% in FY2027.

Are WPC's dividends supported by operating cash flows?

W. P. Carey increased its quarterly dividend in June 2026 by 4.4% year over year to $0.94 per share. The payout ratio was slightly above 70%, while AFFO per share reached $1.34 in Q2 FY2026, up 4.7% year over year. The dividend is also supported by annual AFFO guidance of $5.19–$5.27 and approximately $300 million of annual retained cash flow, while rent-loss and refinancing risks remain factors to monitor.