| Factor | Score | Distribution | Value | Avg | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Valuation | 57 | 22.0x | 17.8x | Around median | |
Growth | 71 | 12.9% | 7.1% | Top tier | |
Quality | 88 | 14.4% | 4.5% | Top tier | |
Safety | 40 | 3.1x | 2.6x | Around median | |
Capital Return | 60 | 2.58% | 2.12% | Around median | |
Momentum | 39 | -20.9% | 2.9% | Bottom tier | |
Sentiment | 82 | 11 | 3 | Top tier |
Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.
Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.
Warner Music Group operates through two pillars: Recorded Music and Music Publishing. Recorded Music generates revenue from subscription streaming, ad-supported streaming, physical sales, artist services and expanded rights, and licensing, while Music Publishing generates revenue from streaming, synchronization, mechanical rights, and performance; the company also expands digital distribution, rights management, royalty accounting, and analytics through ADA and Revelator. The catalog business represents about two-thirds of revenue, and the company manages a catalog of more than one million songs, for which it uses proprietary artificial intelligence tools to improve marketing and performance on streaming platforms.
In Q3 fiscal 2026, preliminary revenue reached $1.864 billion, up 10% according to the preliminary disclosure, while the 2026-08-06 call showed growth of 9%, or 11% on an adjusted and constant-currency basis. Operating income rose 80% to $305 million, and adjusted OIBDA grew 15% with margin expansion of 100 basis points; preliminary results indicated an adjusted OIBDA margin of 23.2% versus 22.1%. Adjusted net income and adjusted earnings per share also grew 21%, while operating cash flow rose 209% to $142 million.
Recorded Music led the Q3 fiscal 2026 mix with revenue growth of 9%, supported by adjusted subscription streaming growth of 12%, ad-supported streaming growth of 10%, physical revenue growth of 17%, and artist services and expanded rights growth of 15%, versus a 1% decline in licensing. Music Publishing revenue rose 11%, including streaming growth of 14%, synchronization growth of 7%, and mechanical rights growth of 19%, versus a 2% decline in performance revenue; the adjusted OIBDA margin reached 25.3% for Recorded Music and 28.9% for Music Publishing. By comparison, Q2 fiscal 2026 recorded revenue of $1.7 billion, gross profit of $802 million, and net income of $183 million.
The analyst consensus rates WMG stock as a Buy, with an average target of $39.25 and a target range of $36 to $43. The average target exceeds the 52-week range high of $35.42 by about 10.8%, while the lowest target exceeds it by about 1.6%, meaning the valuation range assumes a breakout above the previous year's levels. Revenue and margin growth support this assumption, but it remains exposed to risks from net debt of $4.1 billion and slowing ad-supported streaming in Q4 fiscal 2026.
Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-29; the live price is shown at the top of the page.
Preliminary revenue reached $1.864 billion, up 10%, and operating income rose 80% to $305 million. Recorded Music subscription streaming grew 12% on an adjusted basis, while Music Publishing rose 11%. Adjusted OIBDA also increased 15%, with its margin expanding 100 basis points, and operating cash flow rose 209% to $142 million.
The Apple renewal completed the alignment of major digital streaming partners around contractual increases in the minimum wholesale price per subscriber. By the 2026-08-06 call, these increases covered 88% of subscription streaming revenue, after coverage was zero two years earlier. Pricing contributed about 3.5 percentage points to the 12% subscription streaming growth in Q3 fiscal 2026.
The company applies proprietary artificial intelligence tools to a catalog of more than one million songs to identify marketing opportunities and produce animations, lyric videos, and visuals. These tools helped Chris Rainbow's recording Be Like a Woman rise from 50 thousand streams throughout 2025 to more than 140 million streams from the beginning of 2026 through 2026-08-06. Alongside internal use, management expects a meaningful contribution from licensing agreements with Suno, Stability AI, KLAY, and Udio beginning in fiscal 2027.
Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.
The adjusted OIBDA margin for Recorded Music reached 25.3% in Q3 fiscal 2026 after increasing 150 basis points, while the Music Publishing margin reached 28.9% after increasing 70 basis points. The company targets the high end of annual expansion of 150–200 basis points in fiscal 2026, supported by savings of $200 million. Targeted savings rise to $300 million on an annualized basis in fiscal 2027, with the company targeting a mid-twenties margin in the near term and a high-twenties margin in the long term.
Total debt reached $4.7 billion and net debt reached $4.1 billion on June 30, 2026, compared with $618 million in cash. Management also expected ad-supported streaming growth to slow from 10% in Q3 fiscal 2026 to a mid-single-digit rate in Q4 fiscal 2026. Artificial intelligence adds risks related to competing content and copyright protection, as daily uploads of artificial intelligence-generated tracks to Deezer reached about 90 thousand tracks.
The partnership with Bain Capital deployed $650 million of its $1.65 billion capacity to acquire high-margin catalogs with growth potential. Warner Music Group targets returns of approximately 20% for these investments, the same threshold used to evaluate its internal investments. Through Revelator and ADA, the company expands digital distribution, rights management, and royalty accounting, while the GoDigital Music agreement added more than 85 thousand new tracks to the ecosystem.
